Subject: POLITICO Playbook: Shutdown, Day 34: Two new dynamics
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2019 05:07:39 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by BP: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Jan 24, 2019 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman 
             
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
SHUTDOWN ... DAY 34 ... TWO IMPORTANT DYNAMICS HAVE BURST INTO PUBLIC VIEW AT THE SAME TIME ... 

-- WASHINGTON IS GETTING MORE SERIOUS ABOUT ENDING THE SHUTDOWN: Look around. SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI (D-CALIF.) and her Democratic leadership are cobbling together a $5-billion-plus border security offer -- a big step for a party that said it wouldn't negotiate with the government closed. Freshman Democrats seem more itchy to find a way to end this as the days go on.

THE WHITE HOUSE has put immigration policy changes on the table. SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY.) is off the sidelines. He met privately Wednesday afternoon with HOUSE MINORITY LEADER KEVIN MCCARTHY (R-CALIF.) in McCarthy's Capitol office. REP. MARK MEADOWS (R-N.C.) was in a private chat yesterday afternoon with HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS CHAIRWOMAN NITA LOWEY (D-N.Y.) on the House floor.

... BUT PELOSI AND TRUMP HAVE BEEN IN AN EPIC STARE-DOWN, AND THUS, A SHUTDOWN DEAL SEEMS SO FAR OFF: The speaker and the president of the United States spent all day Wednesday toe-to-toe, trying to see who would blink first. The president first said he would show up to the Capitol to deliver his State of the Union, Pelosi said no thanks, and then everyone was waiting to see what the president would do. 

REPUBLICANS WERE betting Trump had Pelosi cornered, and there was no way she would rescind the invitation. They thought this was a win-win for Trump -- either the president would deliver the State of the Union, or Pelosi would block him. 

... BUT THEN, Trump blinked and bowed to Pelosi, saying he'd give his State of the Union after the shutdown. This is a big win for Pelosi. It re-establishes that Pelosi is, indeed, in charge of the legislative branch, and there is little Trump can do about that. Republicans were winning the daily political churn Wednesday because they were talking about SOTU, not the shutdown, for which they are being blamed. And then Trump caved to Pelosi.

WHERE BOTH SIDES ARE ... 

-- HOUSE DEMS: Pelosi is holding her position -- no wall -- but is showing a bit of flexibility. This was never about the money, which is why Democrats are willing to give Trump more than he asked for, but for border security, not the wall. 

-- THE WHITE HOUSE: The open secret at the White House is that Jared Kushner has been pushing for a large-scale immigration deal as a way out of this mess. A big immigration accord, of course, is not the same as criminal justice reform, which was Kushner's last foray on Capitol Hill. Almost every Democrat wanted to pass CJR. Immigration is an issue that deeply divides the two parties, and would put the president in a tough position with his base, which seems to bother him. 

WAPO'S JOSH DAWSEY and BOB COSTA: "'Master negotiator' or 'nonentity'? Kushner thrusts himself into middle of shutdown talks"

THERE IS A DEAL TO BE HAD: Pelosi and McConnell -- both experienced appropriators -- can figure out how to give both sides a way to declare victory here. New fencing where it's necessary. Repaired fencing where it's needed. More -- and new -- technology. Trump can actually win on the number -- $5.7 billion -- but he'll have to lose on the wall.

SQUARE ONE ALERT ... DO NOT EXPECT A RESOLUTION THIS WEEK: The House leaves by noon today. The Senate is expected to vote down both the clean stopgap bill and the president's plan. The House has warned lawmakers that they could be called back within 24 hours to vote.

PELOSI will give her weekly press conference at 10:45 this morning. 

THE DENVER POST: "Editorial: Sen. Cory Gardner to break with Republicans on Trump's wall - it's the right thing to do: Colorado senator's spokesman says Gardner intends to vote for clean funding bill that would open the government with no border-security strings attached."

THE PRESIDENT has nothing on his schedule today. 

THE IMPACT -- SCARY STATEMENT FROM THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSOCIATION, AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOCIATION and ASSOCIATION OF FLIGHT ATTENDANTS: "We have a growing concern for the safety and security of our members, our airlines, and the traveling public due to the government shutdown. This is already the longest government shutdown in the history of the United States and there is no end in sight. In our risk averse industry, we cannot even calculate the level of risk currently at play, nor predict the point at which the entire system will break. It is unprecedented." The full statement

-- WAPO'S DAMIAN PALETTA (@damianpaletta): "MORE SHUTDOWN NEWS: The U.S. General Services Administration has asked Congress to allow it to 'reprogram' $520 million so that it can make lease and utility payments for multiple federal agencies renting space in commercial buildings." Story by Damian and Juliet Eilperin: "White House seeks list of programs that would be hurt if shutdown lasts into March"

-- "'We're done': Shutdown strikes small, midsize and rural transit," by Tanya Snyder: "The government shutdown is pushing some of the nation's small, midsize and rural transit systems to an existential crisis, prompting bus agencies to scale back service, prepare for furloughs or even contemplate closing their doors entirely." POLITICO

-- "'Extraordinarily angry and very upset taxpayers': IRS faces chaotic tax season amid shutdown," by Brian Faler 

         
ANITA KUMAR, GABBY ORR and ELIANA JOHNSON, "Trump's border wall obsession frustrates conservative activists: Even conservative activists who have made a career of restricting immigration say Trump has gotten carried away by his famous 2016 campaign promise": "Democrats aren't the only ones who wish President Donald Trump weren't obsessed with building a border wall.

"Even hard-line conservative immigration activists are frustrated with Trump's relentless focus on a border wall - and are pushing him to embrace what they call more effective enforcement policies as part of any deal with Congress. They are working with a half-dozen Republican members of Congress to write additional proposals they hope the White House will support." POLITICO

Good Thursday morning. SOME HOUSEKEEPING NEWS FROM JAKE: I'm joining NBC News and MSNBC as a political contributor -- and I'm very excited about it. The NBC and MSNBC team has become family to me, and I'm pumped to officially join the squad. I'll be on air talking about our Playbook and POLITICO reporting throughout the day on Capitol Hill. 

SPOTTED: Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) eating lunch with Stacey Abrams at RPM Italian on Wednesday. ... Jim Clapper and John Brennan eating dinner at Lyon Hall in Clarendon. ... David Hogg walking outside the House floor.

BLOOMBERG'S JENNIFER JACOBS, "Republican Senator Joni Ernst Says She Was Raped in College": "Ernst says that she was raped in college by someone she knew and that her ex-husband physically abused her, making her one of the highest-profile women in her party to allege assaults in the era of the #MeToo movement. 

"Ernst publicly disclosed the rape in an interview with Bloomberg News, which she decided to do after details of her divorce from husband Gail Ernst were reported this week. 'I didn't want to share it with anybody, and in the era of hashtag-MeToo survivors, I always believed that every person is different and they will confront their demons when they're ready,' Ernst said in the interview. Her voice broke. 'And I was not ready.'" Bloomberg

SECRETARY OF STATE MIKE POMPEO spoke with MARTHA MACCALLUM on FOX NEWS about running for Senate: "Lots of folks have reached out to me and suggested I ought to do that. I have suggested to them that I have a very full plate as secretary of state, and I intend to keep doing this, so long as President Trump will commit to it." MACCALLUM: "So no intention to get involved in the Senate race in Kansas?" POMPEO: "Martha, every day I'm trying to make sure that I'm doing what President Trump wants me to do to keep America safe; that's my singular focus." 

MACCALLUM: "Is Mitch McConnell trying to change your mind about that? I know that Kris Kobach, who lost the governor's race there, is considered a possibility to run for that seat." POMPEO: "I spoke to Senator McConnell once; he asked me if I'd think about it, and I told him I appreciated the phone call."

-- DID ANYONE hear a "no, I won't run" or a "no, I'm not interested"? Pompeo toyed with primarying Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) in 2016. 

THE NEXT BATTLE ... ANDREW DESIDERIO and MELANIE ZANONA: "Ocasio-Cortez and Freedom Caucus ready for battle"

         
THE INVESTIGATIONS ... 

DARREN SAMUELSOHN and JOSH GERSTEIN, "Mueller speaks. But will he comment again?: The special counsel is stuck between pressure from those who want his team to keep discussing news stories, and a desire to maintain silence": "Robert Mueller's office has thrown into question its approach to future controversial Russia probe stories after upending 20 months of blanket 'no comments' last week. President Donald Trump's lawyers are heralding the special counsel's team for its rare move on Friday night to knock down a BuzzFeed report suggesting the president directed his former lawyer to commit perjury.

"And the president's allies are pressing Mueller to maintain the same standard going forward for other articles that raise concerns. But even legal experts supportive of Mueller's move see the statement as a one-off designed to protect the investigation's integrity, not an indication of a shift in strategy. So now Mueller's team finds itself in a difficult spot - stuck between pressure from those who will argue his office has set a precedent, and the desire to maintain a silence that has helped insulate the probe from the heated political chatter surrounding it." POLITICO

-- "Manafort's Lawyers Say Prosecutors Twisted Memory Lapses as Lies," by NYT's Sharon LaFraniere: "Paul Manafort's lawyers on Wednesday strongly disputed claims by prosecutors working for the special counsel that Mr. Manafort repeatedly lied to them, including about the transfer of campaign polling data to a Russian citizen with ties to Kremlin-run intelligence services in spring 2016. 

"The lawyers argued in a new court filing that the prosecutors had wrongly interpreted honest memory lapses and innocent misstatements by Mr. Manafort as deliberate attempts to deceive them about his interactions with the Russian citizen, Konstantin Kilimnik, who received the polling data in 2016 as Donald J. Trump was closing in on the Republican presidential nomination." NYT

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- RIAA and SPOTIFY are co-hosting the annual Musicians On Call charity concert at the 9:30 Club on Jan. 30. Miguel is the featured musical act.
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: Anti-government protesters cheer as Juan Guaid&oacute;, head of Venezuela's opposition-run congress, declares himself interim president. | Boris Vergara/AP Photo
   
COMING ATTRACTIONS -- "Schiff, Waters plan joint Deutsche Bank investigation," by Zach Warmbrodt: "Two powerful House committee chairs are planning a joint investigation into German lending giant Deutsche Bank, which is under scrutiny from Democrats over its business dealings with President Donald Trump. ... The investigation into Deutsche Bank will be one of the most closely watched probes launched by the new Democratic-controlled House because it could provide a glimpse into Trump's finances and ties abroad." POLITICO

2020 WATCH -- DAVID SIDERS in POLITICO Magazine: "'Ruthless': How Kamala Harris Won Her First Race": "Before a campaign forum that would help to define her nascent political career, Kamala Harris, then a 38-year-old prosecutor, was bracing for questions about an uncomfortable topic: her relationship with the mayor of San Francisco, Willie Brown.

"Harris' consultant, Jim Stearns, had warned his candidate that her opponents would dredge up her ties to Brown, and the moment arrived at a church in the city's gentrifying Noe Valley neighborhood. The race for San Francisco district attorney was still in its infancy, and Harris, who had never before run for public office, was polling in single digits. But she had an uncommon touch for fundraising and a biography that appealed to women and nonwhite voters. Her opponents took her seriously, but they also saw a weakness that could hobble her political ambitions." POLITICO

SCOOP -- "White House eyes energy push as Russia strategy," by Zack Colman and Andrew Restuccia: "The White House is weighing a new round of executive actions to boost the U.S. energy industry in an attempt to portray strength against Russia. The moves the White House is considering - President Donald Trump's third effort to help pipeline companies - include possible executive orders that would weaken states' power to block energy projects and ease the construction of new pipelines to facilitate the movement of a glut of domestic oil and gas, according to a senior administration official and others familiar with the effort. ...

"'This is not only about economic growth and power. A lot of this is about international security policy. We're aiming at the Russians. We can beat them,' the senior administration official told POLITICO." POLITICO

MEDIAWATCH, LAYOFF EDITION -- "BuzzFeed to Cut 15% of Its Workforce," by WSJ's Lukas Alpert and Benjamin Mullin: "BuzzFeed is planning to lay off about 15% of its workforce, according to people familiar with the situation, as the company seeks to reorient itself in a shifting digital-media landscape. The cuts could affect around 250 jobs ... 

"The firm, among the most high-profile digital-native publishers, also is looking to realign its resources to invest more in promising areas of the business like content licensing and e-commerce ... One impetus for the changes is to get BuzzFeed on the path to profitability and in proper shape as it scouts out potential merger combinations with other digital media players." WSJ ... Jonah Peretti's memo to staffers

-- "Gannett lays off journalists across the country," by Poynter's Tom Jones: "Gannett began slashing jobs all across the country Wednesday in a cost-cutting move that was anticipated even before the recent news that a hedge-fund company was planning to buy the chain." Poynter

-- "Verizon to cut 7% of staff from media division," by CNN's Seth Fiegerman: "Verizon Media Group, the portfolio of media brands that includes Yahoo, AOL and The Huffington Post, plans to lay off about 7% of its staff this week, according to a memo to employees from the division's CEO, obtained by CNN Business. The cuts will affect roughly 800 employees, based on the division's headcount at the end of 2018. The memo did not spell out which media brands will be hit hardest." CNN

 -- "Cond&eacute; Nast to Put All Titles Behind Paywalls by Year End," by WSJ's Jeffrey Trachtenberg: "Magazine publisher Cond&eacute; Nast said it would put all its titles behind paywalls by the end of the year, as pressure builds on major publishers to generate more revenue beyond advertising.

"Three Cond&eacute; Nast titles, the New Yorker, Vanity Fair and Wired, already are behind metered paywalls that require consumers to subscribe in order to access more than four articles each month. Now, the company plans to build digital subscription businesses around its other titles, including Vogue, GQ, Bon App&eacute;tit and Glamour." WSJ
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Marty Russo turned 75 ... Matt Simeon, senior adviser to the CEO and executive director at the National Governors Association ... (was Friday): Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms turned 49

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Eric Schultz, senior adviser to former President Obama and CEO of the Schultz Group. What he's been reading recently: "This is from a few months ago, but CFR's Karen Kornbluh's Foreign Affairs piece on social media has stayed with me. As we all grapple with the interplay of the internet and our democracy, I think she lays out a strong, historical case for how we can start to design some guardrails that protect truth and facts without undermining free speech principles or the spirit of an open internet." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Elliott Abrams is 71 ... former Ford CEO Mark Fields, now a senior adviser at TPG Capital, is 58 ... former OMB Director and HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan is 53 ... Dax Tejera, senior producer at ABC News ... Alex Wong, deputy assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs (hat tip: Heather Nauert) ... WSJ's Byron Tau (h/t Ben Chang, filing from Davos) ... Andrew Friendly ... Stephanie Losee, head of content at Visa ... Courtney Rowe, VP of corporate communications at National Geographic Partners ... Jacqui Corba, producer at CNBC ... Ann O'Hanlon ... Annie Groer ... former Rep. Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.) is 7-0 (h/ts Tony Podesta) ... The Firewall's David Hawkings is
 59 (h/t wife Betsy) ... Andrew Green, senior director of corporate affairs at Thomson Reuters, is 35. He's celebrating in Davos ... POLITICO's Maria Harrigan and Jenny Ament ... Brian Chesemore ... Brian Gallagher ... Amy Kremer ... Christopher Ulrich ... MPAA's Matt Bennett is 41 ... 

... Ian Bassin, executive director of Protect Democracy, is 43 (h/t Soren Dayton) ... Monica Popp, partner at Marshall & Popp ... Megan Hauck of Nathanson + Hauck (h/ts Hazen Marshall and the Baybound and Down Sailing Crew) ... South Korean President Moon Jae-in is 66 ... Roger Rafson, SVP for political/issue advocacy and strategic alliances at Gen Media Partners ... Bernie Merritt ... Prism Group's Christina Kanmaz (h/t Kenny Cunningham) ... Steve Selby ... Edelman's Melanie Trottman ... AP's Lisa Marie Pane ... Shane Hand ... Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.) is 74 ... Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.), the pride of St. Helena, is 68 (h/t Alex Macfarlane) ... Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D-Ariz.) is 73
 ... Rep. Lou Correa (D-Calif.) is 61 ... Brian Lam is 3-0 ... Ellen Globokar ... Andrew Palombaro ... Syed Ali Imran ... Natalie Krings, comms director for Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) ... Lauren Vestewig ... Ron Beitelspacher (h/t Teresa Vilmain)
               
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