Subject: POLITICO Playbook: The losing move
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 25 Jan 2019 05:12:24 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by BP: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Jan 25, 2019 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman 
             
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Listen to today's Audio Briefing
              DRIVING THE DAY      
DAY 35 ... NEW ... ONE IDEA that seems to be picking up steam at the White House and in some quarters on Capitol Hill is creating a commission to study border security and a border wall.

NEEDLESS TO SAY, THIS WOULD BE REPUBLICANS FOLDING, according to the president's friends and foes alike. 

COMMISSIONS ARE USELESS, for the most part. Washington creating one would be an admission that the administration cannot figure out how to cut a deal with Congress on the president's central campaign promise. Look no further than the supercommittee, which wasted a lot of people's time in 2011 trying to come up with a deficit-reduction plan. (Even a mention of the supercommittee is going to send shudders through many Hill and administration aides and reporters.) 

IMAGINE THE WHITE HOUSE trying to convince the base and reporters that it's worth opening up government so a commission could study whether the U.S. needs a wall. (Hat tip WaPo's Bob Costa, who has been talking about this idea for a few days.)

YEAR IN REVIEW ... PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP'S IMMIGRATION PLANS ON CAPITOL HILL ... SOMETHING IS GETTING LOST in this kerfuffle over immigration: Pretty much every immigration plan that the president has supported has gone down.

-- A TRIP DOWN MEMORY LANE: Both Goodlatte bills in the House ... The four-pillar plan ... Thursday's legislation, the framework of which the president unveiled in a rare Saturday speech from the White House. 

BUT ... THERE WAS A BENEFIT TO both the clean funding bill and TRUMP'S immigration plan going down in the Senate on Thursday: Everyone got to see that neither of those bills are the way out of the shutdown. 

SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY.) and SENATE MINORITY LEADER CHUCK SCHUMER (D-N.Y.) are now talking, so that's a good sign if you're looking for this to end.

-- BURGESS EVERETT: "'We're talking': McConnell and Schumer attempt to defuse shutdown": "There are early signs that the two leaders have an exceedingly narrow path to maneuver. Two Republican sources familiar with ongoing talks said Schumer is better off talking to the White House, while a spokesman for Schumer said the Democrat made clear to McConnell that Democrats 'will not support funding for the wall, prorated or otherwise.' 

"And though McConnell and Schumer are both known as pragmatic strategists, they've been constrained by forces beyond their control. There's Trump, of course, who wants his border wall and dismissed an initial funding measure backed by McConnell and Schumer in December. And there's Pelosi, who now outranks Schumer in the party and is leading a caucus filled with liberals who feel no need to compromise with Trump." POLITICO

TODAY IN YA CAN'T MAKE IT UP ... 

WHAT THE PRESIDENT SAID Thursday afternoon: "Well, one of the ideas suggested is they open it, they pay a -- sort of a prorated down payment for the wall, which I think people agree that you need. You need the wall. In fact, I see a lot of the Democrats are all -- almost all of them are breaking and saying, 'Look, walls are good. Walls are good.' Big difference from what you had two or three weeks ago."

THE REALITY: The president was calling for a down payment for his wall after a bill with money for his wall went down on the Senate floor! In fact, the Democrats' clean funding bill got more votes! And just one Democrat voted for his plan. Not "a lot" or "almost all of them."

GREAT STORY ... ELIANA JOHNSON, BURGESS EVERETT and HEATHER CAYGLE: "Trump White House grows eager to escape losing shutdown fight": "The White House's new appetite for a negotiated resolution came after the administration managed to peel off just one Democratic vote - that of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) - a fact that came as a particular surprise to Trump's son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner, who has touted his relationships with Democratic lawmakers but lacks deep experience on Capitol Hill." POLITICO

-- MAY WE ASK ... On what planet is Kushner living if he was surprised that just Manchin voted for Trump's immigration plan? 

         
DRAMA, DRAMA, DRAMA ... WAPO'S SEAN SULLIVAN and PAUL KANE: "'This is your fault': GOP senators clash over shutdown inside private luncheon": "Republican senators clashed with one another and confronted Vice President Pence inside a private luncheon on Thursday, as anger hit a boiling point over the longest government shutdown in history. 'This is your fault,' Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) told Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) at one point, according to two Republicans who attended the lunch and witnessed the exchange.

"'Are you suggesting I'm enjoying this?' McConnell snapped back, according to the people who attended the lunch. Johnson spokesman Ben Voelkel confirmed the confrontation. He said Johnson was expressing frustration with the day's proceedings - votes on dueling plans to reopen the government, both of which failed to advance." WaPo

A FEW THINGS TO THINK ABOUT ... Republicans lashed out during a Senate GOP lunch yesterday. The president gave up on the State of the Union without a real fight. All we hear is that the president is getting sick of this battle. And that comes as Republicans on the Hill are getting sick of it too. Add it all together, and there's a pinhole of light at the end of this tunnel.

Good Friday morning. POLITICO is adding firepower to its 2020 team. Paul Volpe and Mike Zapler sent a memo this morning announcing that MARC CAPUTO and CHRIS CADELAGO are moving over as national political reporters. Caputo is steeped in Florida politics and has written Florida Playbook for the past four years. Cadelago joined POLITICO in May from the Sacramento Bee on the White House beat.

THE GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS visited Barack Obama. Instagram

CLICKER ... @SALTConference: "We look forward to welcoming former WH Chief of Staff and Secretary of Homeland Security General John Kelly to #SALT2019, where he'll be interviewed by Anthony @Scaramucci. 'I want to bury the hatchet... We need to send a message of unity to the country.'" 2-min. video

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- JPMORGAN CHASE CEO and CHAIRMAN JAMIE DIMON is sending a note to employees later this morning announcing the company is donating $1 million to Feeding America and United Way Worldwide. JPMC will also match contributions to those organizations made by employees. "We want a reasonable solution to the shutdown and want to see it end immediately. In the meantime, we continue to serve those who need help," Dimon wrote. 

JPMC also is refunding overdraft fees, and has "extended payments on customers' car loans, provided 90-day relief on their mortgages, and removed minimum payments on their credit cards, limiting the impact on their credit reports. And we're looking at ways to help small businesses, such as bridge loans for our customers seeking SBA real-estate loans."

-- VISA is donating $1 million to Feeding America's shutdown response fund. Visa's announcement

SCOOP -- NBC'S LAURA STRICKLER, KEN DILANIAN and PETER ALEXANDER: "Officials rejected Jared Kushner for top secret security clearance, but were overruled": "Jared Kushner's application for a top secret clearance was rejected by two career White House security specialists after an FBI background check raised concerns about potential foreign influence on him - but their supervisor overruled the recommendation and approved the clearance, two sources familiar with the matter told NBC News.

"The official, Carl Kline, is a former Pentagon employee who was installed as director of the personnel security office in the Executive Office of the President in May 2017. Kushner's was one of at least 30 cases in which Kline overruled career security experts and approved a top secret clearance for incoming Trump officials despite unfavorable information, the two sources said. They said the number of rejections that were overruled was unprecedented - it had happened only once in the three years preceding Kline's arrival." NBC

-- OGR CHAIRMAN ELIJAH CUMMINGS (D-MD.) RESPONDED: "[Wednesday], I launched a wide-ranging investigation of the White House's security clearance process based on a series of grave breaches over the past two years. My request letter to the White House explicitly covers Mr. Kushner, and we expect the White House to produce all of the documents and interviews we requested to determine if tonight's breaking story is accurate. 

"The system is supposed to be a nonpartisan determination of an individual's fitness to hold a clearance, not an ad hoc approach that overrules career experts to give the President's family members access to our nation's most sensitive secrets."

COMING ATTRACTIONS -- "White House plans to overhaul housing finance system, top regulator says," by Victoria Guida and Katy O'Donnell: "The White House will announce a plan by next month to end government control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a bid to resolve a long debate over the fate of the two companies that dominate the mortgage market, a top regulator said." POLITICO

-- "Michael Cohen's lawyer says he will comply with subpoena to testify," by Katie Galioto and Darren Samuelsohn

2020 WATCH -- "Elizabeth Warren to propose new 'wealth tax' on very rich Americans, economist says," by WaPo's Jeff Stein and Christopher Ingraham: "Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) will propose a new annual 'wealth tax' on Americans with more than $50 million in assets, according to an economist advising her on the plan, as Democratic leaders vie for increasingly aggressive solutions to the nation's soaring wealth inequality.

"Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, two left-leaning economists at the University of California, Berkeley, have been advising Warren on a proposal to levy a 2 percent wealth tax on Americans with assets above $50 million, as well as a 3 percent wealth tax on those who have more than $1 billion, according to Saez. The wealth tax would raise $2.75 trillion over a ten-year period from about 75,000 families, or less than 0.1 percent of U.S. households, Saez said." WaPo

-- "Beto O'Rourke's campaign-in-waiting awaits his signal," by David Siders

-- MARC CAPUTO: "'Florida is Trump's state to lose'": "The nation's biggest swing state looks even more like Trump Country heading into 2020. Newly released Florida voter data suggest President Donald Trump will begin his reelection campaign as the favorite in a state that offers a windfall of 29 electoral votes. The driving force: white voters who broke Republican and showed up in such big numbers in 2018 that it looked as if they were casting ballots in a presidential election and not a midterm." POLITICO

         
TRUMP'S FRIDAY -- The president will have lunch with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. He is meeting with mayors from across the country to discuss economic growth in the Cabinet Room at 1:45 p.m. He will also host a roundtable with Hispanic pastors at 2:45 p.m. in the Roosevelt Room.

SUNDAY SO FAR ... 

CBS
 
"Face the Nation": Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) ... El Paso Mayor Dee Margo ... New London (Conn.) Mayor Michael Passero. Panel: Molly Ball, Ramesh Ponnuru, David Sanger and Shawna Thomas
   
NBC
 
"Meet the Press": New NBC News/WSJ Poll ... House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) ... Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) ... Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). Panel: Yamiche Alcindor, Tom Brokaw, Hugh Hewitt and Kristen Welker
   
FOX
 
"Fox News Sunday": Joe Manchin ... Jens Stoltenberg. Panel: Jason Riley, Julie Pace, Gillian Turner and Juan Williams (John Roberts is hosting)
   
CNN
 
"State of the Union": Marco Rubio. Panel: Rick Santorum, Nina Turner, Paul Begala and Linda Chavez
   
CNN
 
"Inside Politics": Rachael Bade, Jeff Zeleny, Astead Herndon and Tamara Keith
                         PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: A TSA officer sits at BWI Thurgood Marshall Airport as the partial government shutdown continues to force workers to go without pay on Jan. 24. | M. Scott Mahaskey/POLITICO
   
JOHN HARRIS in POLITICO MAGAZINE: "Davos Elites Fear They're on a Toboggan Ride to Hell: The global winners here in Switzerland aren't so sure they're up to the task of running the world anymore"

ZACH WARMBRODT: "Waters plans fresh scrutiny of nation's big banks": "Big banks are bracing for their CEOs to be called to testify soon at what could be an intense House hearing led by new Financial Services Chairwoman Maxine Waters, sources familiar with the matter said. 

"The details of the hearing, anticipated to happen by this spring, have not been finalized, but lawmakers and bank representatives are expecting it. The banks that are seen as likely to be invited to participate include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Spokespeople for several of the banks declined to comment, and others didn't respond." POLITICO

MORE FROM THE CLIFF SIMMS BOOK ... "'People dying in a ditch': Trump demanded 'horrifying' anti-opioid ads, new book says," by Gabby Orr: "Last June, the Trump White House launched a six-figure advertising campaign to combat the opioid epidemic that was notable for its gruesome imagery, including a woman intentionally crashing her car and a man shattering his spine beneath a jacked-up vehicle during desperate efforts to acquire prescription drugs. It was exactly what President Donald Trump envisioned when two senior aides first pitched him on the initiative last January, according to a new book by former White House staffer Cliff Sims.

"'We need people dying in a ditch. I want bodies stacked on top of bodies,' Trump told White House counselor Kellyanne Conway, who has spearheaded the administration's efforts to curtail opioid abuse. 'Do it like they did with cigarettes. They had body bags piled all over the streets and ugly people with giant holes in their faces and necks.' Trump had no interest in another proposal, to create a website where Americans could share personal stories about the opioid crisis. Instead, Trump told Conway, he wanted to develop 'the most horrifying ads you've ever seen.'" POLITICO

FOR YOUR RADAR -- NAHAL TOOSI: "In Venezuela, Trump finds one dictator he doesn't like"

VALLEY TALK -- "Facebook CEO's Foundation, Firms to Raise $500 Million for San Francisco-Area Housing," by WSJ's Nour Malas: "Companies and philanthropists in the San Francisco Bay Area, including Facebook Inc. Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg, said they plan to raise $500 million for affordable housing, weeks after California Gov. Gavin Newsom called on the private sector to do more to address the region's critical shortage of homes. The investment fund, which has raised $260 million so far, aims to help build at least 8,000 homes in five Bay Area counties within the next 10 years, according to its leaders." WSJ

-- "Pentagon to review Amazon employee's influence over $10 billion government contract," by WaPo's Aaron Gregg and Christian Davenport

MEDIAWATCH -- @JeffHorwitz: "After five years at the AP in Washington, I'll be covering Facebook for the Wall Street Journal out in San Francisco starting at the end of next month. This means I'm done with Washington - there's no way this new beat could have a political angle!"

-- "CNN's Jim Acosta is writing a book about Trump's war with the media," by CNN's Brian Stelter
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
SPOTTED: Joe Biden on the AA 323 DCA-DFW flight Thursday afternoon in first class. Rep. Norma Torres (D-Calif.) was back in coach in a middle seat.

LOUISIANA SEN. JOHN KENNEDY will be the GOP speaker at the Gridiron Dinner in March, per USA Today's Susan Page. 

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Emily Schillinger, VP of public affairs at the American Investment Council, and Ian Schillinger, a partner at McKinsey and Company, welcomed Audrey Anne Schillinger.

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Fox News' Rick Leventhal turned 59 ... Leonard Goldberg turned 85

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Michael Scherer, WaPo national political reporter. A trend he thinks deserves more attention: "John Edwards spoke about the 'two Americas' and Donald Trump christened the 'forgotten men and women,' but I don't think any economist, journalist or political leader has yet put forward an achievable vision for healing the growing divisions in developed democracies. Globalization, automation and cultural change appear to be the provocations, and they are not fading away. Hold on tight." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: NYT's Jeremy Peters ... Jack Oliver is 5-0 ... Nancy Gibbs ... Joe Conason, EIC of National Memo, is 65 ... NAM's Mark Isaacson ... Kate Conway (hubby tip: Chris Harris) ... Ed Payne ... Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) is 62 ... Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.) is 82 ... Eleni Towns ... Zach Pleat ... Google's Adam Kovacevich ... Dave Martinez ... Charles Aldinger ... Wells Fargo's Erika Reynoso ... Rubenstein EVP Iva Benson (hubby tip: Josh) ... Tina Tchen, partner at Buckley Sandler LLP ... Dan Kaniewski, FEMA's deputy administrator (hat tip: Ed Cash) ... Angela Calman, VP of comms at Oscar Health ... Ashley Jones ... Adam Falkoff, president of CapitalKeys ... Danielle Inman ... POLITICO's
 Christopher Parisi and Alessandro Sclapari ... David Woodruff, the pride of Clarkston, Mich., is 48 ... Brian Dunn ... Karen Ray Bishop ... Evan Lukaske is 3-0 (h/t Liza Pluto) ... 

... Mallory Hunter, VP of Mason Strategies and a Trump WH and RNC alum (hubby tip: Zach) ... Christine Gianakis ... Eleni Gill ... Jason Jay Smart ... Heather Marrison ... LifeZette's Connor Wolf (h/t Shawn McCoy) ... Meaghan Lynch ... Kevin Helliker, editor of Brunswick Review and a WSJ alum, is 6-0 (h/t George Little) ... Joelle Terry ... Mary Lynn Jones Rynkiewicz ... Tina Kelley ... Lucette Moran ... Sefira Fialkoff ... Parker Erickson, director of legislative Affairs at the Charles Group (h/t Hayley Andrews) ... Dae Lim ... Mark Bottini ... Heather Bellow is 5-0 ... Laura Simolaris ... Erik Smulson is 52 ... Sarah Tornero ... Wes Caudell is 39 ... Houston Ruck ... Dan Carol ... Amy
 Mitchell ... Elliott Vilmain ... Michelle Goodman ... Cory Mason ... Chet Culver is 53 (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
               
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