Subject: Playbook PM: Shutdown cost comes into view
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2019 11:53:06 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by Google: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Jan 28, 2019 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer, Daniel Lippman, Garrett Ross and Eli Okun 
         
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THOUGHT BUBBLE ... LOOK AT THE NATION'S federally elected officials and the tenor of the political discourse over the last 10 years. Then ask yourself, "Does it seem like the American voter is looking for an independent, or a partisan?"

-- MIKE BLOOMBERG: "Given the strong pull of partisanship and the realities of the electoral college system, there is no way an independent can win. That is truer today than ever before. In 2020, the great likelihood is that an independent would just split the anti-Trump vote and end up re-electing the President. That's a risk I refused to run in 2016 and we can't afford to run it now." Bloomberg statement

THE SHUTDOWN IMPACT -- CAITLIN EMMA: "Shutdown cost the U.S. $3 billion that won't be recovered, CBO says": "Because the IRS was among the agencies unfunded during the shutdown, it had to slow down some compliance work. For that reason, CBO estimates tax revenue will be about $2 billion lower in fiscal 2019 and that 'much of the lost revenue ... will not be recouped.' In addition, these CBO estimates did not include indirect effects. ... 

"The agency projected that an overall $11 billion in losses due to the shutdown over President Donald Trump's border wall will be offset by a projected $8 billion boost for the GDP through the remainder of the year. ... The shutdown, which ended on Friday, reduced GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018 by $3 billion, in addition to $8 billion in the first quarter of 2019." POLITICO ... The report

OTHER BLEAK CBO NUMBERS ... NYT'S DEBORAH SOLOMON (@deborah_solomon): "CBO short version: U.S. fiscal situation getting worse. Longer version: Deficit will exceed $1T every year beginning in 2022. Debt: GDP will hit 93% in 2029, highest since WWII. Aging population will continue to boost spending."

CNN'S MANU RAJU: "GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander says Trump, Pelosi should 'step back' from border security talks"

Good Monday afternoon. SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS is briefing on camera at 3 p.m. The last official briefing was Dec. 18.

WHAT'S ON THE PRESIDENT'S MIND -- @realDonaldTrump at 8:16 a.m.: "Tariffs on the 'dumping' of Steel in the United States have totally revived our Steel Industry. New and expanded plants are happening all over the U.S. We have not only saved this important industry, but created many jobs. Also, billions paid to our treasury. A BIG WIN FOR U.S."

... at 8:21 a.m.: "Numerous states introducing Bible Literacy classes, giving students the option of studying the Bible. Starting to make a turn back? Great!"

... at 8:41 a.m.: "Howard Schultz doesn't have the 'guts' to run for President! Watched him on @60Minutes last night and I agree with him that he is not the 'smartest person.' Besides, America already has that! I only hope that Starbucks is still paying me their rent in Trump Tower!" 
       
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2020 WATCH -- MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL'S CRAIG GILBERT: "Latest polling data point to major re-election challenges for Trump in Wisconsin": "With less than two years to go before the 2020 election, President Donald Trump faces an uphill climb in winning a second victory in Wisconsin, a battleground that will be at the epicenter of the next presidential campaign.

"Here are three major takeaways from a statewide poll of 800 registered voters released Thursday by the Marquette Law School, its first survey since the 2018 election: High disapproval. Right now, Trump has a precarious path to victory in Wisconsin, a state he won by less than one point in 2016. His approval rating is 44 percent - higher than it is in most national polls, but lower than it was here last fall and weighted down by the unpopular government shutdown that just ended. ... 

"Democrats more unified than Republicans. ... Opposition more intense than support. The intensity of public opinion matters a lot in politics and it is not on Trump's side: 30 percent of Wisconsin voters 'strongly' approve of him and 46 percent 'strongly' disapprove." MJS

-- CNN'S DAVID WRIGHT: "House Democrats unveil top 2020 targets": "House Democrats on Monday unveiled an initial 2020 battlefield map, targeting 33 Republican-held or open congressional seats with an emphasis on suburban districts -- and Texas in particular. ... 

"Many of the districts have been top Democratic targets in recent cycles, including some near misses in the midterms, like in Illinois' 13th (2018 margin under 1%), Kentucky's 6th (under 4%), Minnesota's 1st (under 1%), Nebraska's 2nd (under 2%), and Pennsylvania's 10th (under 3%). All were on the committee's 2018 'Red to Blue' list. In total, the party identified 26 districts where Republicans won by 5 points or fewer in 2018." CNN 

-- REP. TED LIEU (@tedlieu): "I endorse @KamalaHarris for President. Known Kamala for many years & worked together on various issues. She embraces the future, not the past, and is the person we need to move America forward."

SCOOP -- DANIEL LIPPMAN: "Trump 'very pissed off' at former White House aide's tell-all": Trump is "'really hopping mad' at former aide Cliff Sims' new book that reveals firsthand the chaos and infighting that is ever present in his White House, according to several current and former White House officials. Trump is asking aides: 'Who is this guy? Why is he writing this book? He wasn't even in meetings,' the sources said. 

"He also dismissively refers to Sims - who served until last May as director of White House message strategy and a special assistant to the president -as 'the videographer' because he also helped Trump with the weekly video and radio addresses, according to three current and former White House officials." POLITICO

KEEP YOUR ENEMIES CLOSE ... ALEX DAUGHERTY, LESLEY CLARK and EMMA DUMAIN in the MIAMI HERALD: "Twitter diplomacy: How three former Trump rivals influence foreign policy": "Three years ago, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and Lindsey Graham were fighting to stay in Donald Trump's orbit as he pulled away in the Republican presidential primary. ...

"A scattershot foreign policy approach from the president has allowed the three former rivals for the GOP presidential nomination to gain influence through White House dinners with Venezuelan opposition leaders and golf outings with the president." Miami Herald 

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- BEN WERMUND: "DeVos proposal on sexual assault draws wave of personal attacks": "Education Secretary Betsy DeVos' proposal to change rules for how schools handle sexual assault allegations has turned the federal site for collecting public comments into a cauldron of anger and obscenity.

"DeVos, one of President Donald Trump's few remaining original cabinet secretaries, has not become embroiled in any administration scandals during her two years running the Education Department, but she remains enemy No. 1 one for many teachers and activists. The comments reflect not only the divisiveness and emotion surrounding assault investigations but how anything DeVos touches can spark hostility." POLITICO 

ON THE WORLD STAGE -- WSJ'S DREW HINSHAW and ANITA KOMUVES in Budapest: "Hungary Bucks U.S. Push to Curb Russian and Chinese Influence": "Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has told U.S. diplomats that he wants his country to be 'neutral, like Austria' as Washington pushes for a tougher line on Russia and China, deepening fears that a longtime American ally is drifting from its orbit. ... [H]e has raised objections to what was expected to be a fairly straightforward defense agreement clarifying laws that affect U.S. troops and military equipment passing through Hungary." WSJ

BEYOND THE BELTWAY -- "All Red or All Blue, State Legislatures Run to Partisan Sides," by NYT's Timothy Williams in St. Paul, Minn.: "The vast majority of the newcomers are Democrats, and as legislatures started new sessions this month, they were already shifting the debate in a number of states to liberal pledges made during their campaigns ... Republicans continue to hold majorities in most of the nation's state capitals ... 

"Minnesota may be the only place where lawmakers ... will be forced in the coming months to hash through both liberal and conservative political proposals to reach compromises. The state has become the lone state laboratory for testing whether bipartisanship - which has failed spectacularly on the federal level - can work in this moment." NYT

QUOTE DU JOUR -- Cliff Sims writes in his new book that Stephen Miller told him, "I would be happy if not a single refugee foot ever again touched America's soil." The Atlantic
       
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INSIDE THE WHITE HOUSE -- WAPO'S JOSH DAWSEY: "'Want to see the Lincoln bedroom?': Trump relishes role as White House tour guide"

VALLEY TALK -- WSJ'S SAM SCHECHNER and KIMBERLY CHIN in Brussels: "Facebook Opens New Fronts to Combat Political Interference": "Facebook Inc. is planning a dedicated effort to fend off interference in the European Union's parliamentary election campaign this spring, part of a broader effort at the social media giant to defend against politically motivated interference. ... 

"The company said in a blog post it is rolling out additional tools to help prevent foreign interference and to make political advertising more transparent. Advertisers will have to be authorized to purchase political ads. It is also creating a library of political and issues advertisements that will include details including the budget, number of people reached and demographic data on the people it reached." WSJ

CLICKER -- CNN'S DONIE O'SULLIVAN: "When seeing is no longer believing: Inside the Pentagon's race against deepfake videos": "Advances in artificial intelligence could soon make creating convincing fake audio and video - known as 'deepfakes' - relatively easy. Making a person appear to say or do something they did not has the potential to take the war of disinformation to a whole new level." CNN 

MEDIAWATCH -- Haley Byrd will be a reporter in CNN's Washington bureau. She previously was a congressional reporter at The Weekly Standard.

TRANSITION -- Matt Whitlock will be a senior adviser for communications and digital at the NRSC. He was previously communications director and deputy COS for former Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah).

SPOTTED: David Petraeus speaking this weekend at the USMA class of 2020's 500th Night dinner in Washington Hall at West Point. ... Tom Perez getting a shoeshine at DCA this morning. Pic

SPOTTED at Chaplin's for a birthday and going-away party Sunday night for Meredith Kelly, communications director for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D-N.Y.) presidential campaign: Travis Brimm, Dan McNally, Steph Nielsen, Justin and Julia Goodman, John Bivona, Danny Kazin and Barb Solish, Ryan Williams, Colin Reed, Liz Johnson, Tyler Law and Emma Eckerstrom, Pat Burgwinkle, Julie Tarallo and Kevin McAlister, Amanda Sherman, Jacob Peters, Rachel Irwin, Molly Mitchell, Tayhlor Coleman, Javier Gamboa, Drew Godlinich and Julia Ager.

WEEKEND WEDDINGS -- Chandler Smith, communications director for Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), on Saturday married John Costello, a government contractor for SAIC, U.S. Naval Academy graduate and Iraq and Afghanistan war veteran, in a ceremony at the First Presbyterian Church in Augusta, Ga. Pic ... Another pic

SPOTTED: Rodell and Sheena Mollineau, Tom and Liesl Hickey, Jared and Clare English, Mike McManus, David and Jill Bader Thompson, Ann Marie Hauser, Arjun Mody, Michawn Rich, Dominique McKay, Betsy Korona, Jennifer Morris Cummings, Eric Dent, Courtney Kube, Ken Reidy, Tommy Iverson and Stephen Krebs.

-- Darren Centinello, who handles a mixture of digital, communications and social media responsibilities for the Trump 2020 campaign and is a 2016 campaign alum, recently married Elizabeth Pipko, a model who also recently published her second poetry book and was a paid staffer on the 2016 campaign. Pic ... Another pic ... N.Y. Post article on Pipko

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Meredith Melnick, most recently a senior enterprise editor at HuffPost and a Time alum, and James Breitinger, a creative account lead at Google, welcomed Ezra Lyon Breitinger. Pic ... Another pic

BONUS BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Ted Greener, executive director of public affairs at the Association of American Railroads. How he got his start in his career: "I always wanted to work in college sports administration, as an information director. Alas, that never materialized. I came back to D.C., where I am from, after finishing school in Louisiana in 2011, to work at Ogilvy Public Relations." Playbook Plus Q&A
               
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