Subject: POLITICO Playbook: Talks to avoid a shutdown begin … What to watch
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 30 Jan 2019 05:10:31 -0600
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Presented by Google: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Jan 30, 2019 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and Daniel Lippman 
         
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
THE HOUSE-SENATE COMMITTEE that will negotiate the legislative future of PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP'S border wall meets for the first time this afternoon in HC-5, a basement Capitol meeting room.

WHEN THE PRESIDENT opened up the government last week, he did so on the recommendation of some advisers, who were leading him to believe that a large-scale immigration compromise was possible - if not likely - with Democrats. 

BUT IMMIGRATION POLICY IS TRICKIER than just about any other issue that Congress deals with. Remember: In 2013, the Senate spent five months wrestling over immigration policy, it passed a bill, only to see the effort die in the House. That was with BARACK OBAMA in the White House, and JOHN BOEHNER as speaker. This was before the wall and before TRUMP.

AXIOS' JONATHAN SWAN scooped that White House aide JARED KUSHNER has spent some time with a whiteboard, sketching out how he could transpose his success in passing criminal justice reform on immigration reform. The massive difference: Republicans and Democrats broadly agreed on criminal justice reform, and many wanted to see the same policies put into law. 

CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM HAD A LIFE BEFORE KUSHNER. OBAMA and PAUL RYAN almost moved a bill, but ran out of time before the end of his presidency. Swan's Axios story

WHAT TO WATCH FOR ... Left to their own devices, the House and Senate appropriators -- the folks on the committee -- could absolutely come to a funding agreement. Watch to see how involved the White House gets. ... Keep an eye on time. There are just 16 DAYS to get this wrapped up. ... 

... Watch for fissures in the conference. Yes, many folks on the panel are dealmakers, as a few stories have pointed out this week. But some of the House members have well-formed and pretty strident immigration views. ... There's some disagreement on this, but we believe if the debt limit gets into these talks, it only complicates matters, and stakes get raised exponentially.
       
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INSIDE THE TALKS ... GRIM OUTLOOK: RACHAEL BADE and BURGESS EVERETT: "Big border deal fades before talks even begin": "Democrats are ruling out the idea of negotiating on Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, skeptical that Trump would actually provide a permanent fix for the young undocumented immigrants after he previously rejected just such a deal. Meanwhile, top Republicans also doubt an expansive agreement could be put together in the next three weeks.

"The fading prospects of the negotiation mean Trump is likely to receive only a fraction of the $5.7 billion he's been seeking for his southern barrier in any deal, if one can be put together at all by Feb. 15. Then he would have to decide whether to unilaterally move funds around by declaring a legally dubious national emergency or embrace another debilitating shutdown.

"'I've tried to work with this administration on issues involving immigration with a great level of frustration. And I do not want to take so many innocent people whose fate is hanging in the balance of this political debate and start off with the premise that we have a likelihood of solving their problem,' said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin of Illinois, a Democratic negotiator on the conference committee, which meets for the first time Wednesday." POLITICO

-- WAPO'S BOB COSTA and ERICA WERNER: "'Whatever works': Lawmakers negotiate to avert another shutdown absent signal from Trump": "Republicans intent on averting another government shutdown sought Tuesday to expand border security talks to dealing with U.S. debt and other issues as lawmakers operated with no clear signal from President Trump on what he would accept.

"The latest idea to tack on an increase in the nation's borrowing limit to discussions over Trump's demand for $5.7 billion for a U.S.-Mexico border wall divided Republicans and was immediately rejected by Democrats, a less-than-promising development on the eve of congressional negotiators' first meeting. 'I don't want to sink the whole thing,' Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said when asked about the flurry of proposals by her colleagues. ... 

"Multiple Republican lawmakers and aides said they anticipate a meeting Thursday at the White House between Trump and Republican members of the bipartisan group, although details remained uncertain. Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Trump should stay out of the negotiations. 'When he mixes in, it's a formula for failure' he said. 'I'd ask President Trump, 'Let Congress deal with it on its own.''" WaPo

-- POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL ... STEVE SHEPARD: "Poll: Voters oppose another shutdown, emergency declaration"

Good Wednesday morning. EARLY MORNING DESSERT: JOHN BOEHNER speaking in Marco Island about the government shutdown: "When I was looking for legislative strategy, the last place I looked was talk radio. The second last place I looked was the knucklehead caucus, who don't know how to vote yes on anything. They did the president a total disservice." Naples News

SPOTTED, TRUMP HOTEL EDITION: Brad Parscale, Corey Lewandowski, Don Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle, David Bossie, Nick Ayers, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Jason Miller were all at the Trump Hotel on Tuesday night.

THE QUIET WHITE HOUSE ... THE PRESIDENT has nothing on his schedule today besides his intelligence briefing. So far this week, the president has just had lunch with the VP on his schedule. Nothing else.

COMING ATTRACTIONS -- "Stacey Abrams to give Democratic response to State of the Union," by Marianne LeVine: "Although she lost the race, Abrams is viewed as a rising star in the party. Most recently, Democrats have pushed her to consider running in Georgia's 2020 Senate race against Republican Sen. David Perdue. She recently met with Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairwoman Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) about the 2020 race." POLITICO ... Listen to Anna's recent Women Rule podcast with Abrams

TRUMP VS. THE GOP ... NYT'S PETER BAKER -- "A Growing Chorus of Republican Critics for Trump's Foreign Policy": "They think pulling out of Syria and Afghanistan would be a debacle. They think North Korea cannot be trusted. They think the Islamic State is still a threat to America. They think Russia is bad and NATO is good. The trouble is their president does not agree.

"More than two years into his administration, the disconnect between President Trump and the Republican establishment on foreign policy has rarely been as stark. In recent days, the president's own advisers and allies have been pushing back, challenging his view of the world and his prescription for its problems." NYT

BURGESS EVERETT and GABBY ORR: "Why Trump is still beefing with 'Da Nang Dick'"

2020 WATCH ... ANNA spoke with DAYTON MAYOR NAN WHALEY for the latest Women Rule podcast. Whaley, who is co-chair of the COMMITTEE TO DRAFT SHERROD BROWN FOR PRESIDENT 2020, talked about all things Brown, what voters in the Midwest are looking for and her own political journey. Subscribe and listen
 
-- STEVE SHEPARD: "Poll: Kamala Harris gaining among Democratic voters": "A majority of Democrats, 57 percent, said they would be more likely to support a candidate who backs Medicare for all, in which all Americans get their health insurance from the government, the poll shows. Only 22 percent would be less likely to support a candidate who would prefer Medicare for all, over preserving and improving the existing system under the Affordable Care Act.

"The poll, conducted Jan. 25-27, also shows Harris gaining steam amid the rollout of her campaign, which began on Jan. 21, when she announced on 'Good Morning America' that she would run for president. She's now the third choice of Democratic voters, who were asked to pick their favorite person for the party's nomination next year." POLITICO 

-- STEPHANIE MURRAY in Dover, N.H.: "Bloomberg creates his own lane in New Hampshire swing": "Michael Bloomberg looked alot like a traditional presidential hopeful on Tuesday with a well-attended speech in New Hampshire, a factory visit and a walking tour of local businesses. But he didn't sound much like a Democratic candidate.

"Other than his sharp criticisms of Donald Trump on climate change, the government shutdown and the president's governing style, the New York billionaire seemed intent on testing the limits of how far he could deviate from Democratic Party orthodoxy." POLITICO

-- "Tulsi Gabbard campaign in disarray," by Daniel Strauss and Alex Thompson: "Two-and-a-half weeks after the Hawaii Democrat told CNN she had decided to run for the White House-an announcement that even her own staff didn't know was coming, after weeks of debating the timing of the rollout-the 37-year-old congresswoman has struggled to contain the chaos." POLITICO

-- "Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti will not run for president," by David Siders, Chris Cadelago and Daniel Strauss
       
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THE INVESTIGATIONS -- "Steven Mnuchin Draws Claims of Conflict of Interest in Decision on Russian Oligarch," by NYT's Ken Vogel: "Democrats in Congress raised ethical concerns on Tuesday about connections between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and a billionaire Republican donor who stands to benefit financially from the Trump administration's decision to lift sanctions on the Russian oligarch Oleg V. Deripaska's companies. 

"In a letter to Mr. Mnuchin, two senior Democratic lawmakers said the Treasury secretary's connection to an entertainment business owned in part by the donor, Len Blavatnik, a major investor in Mr. Deripaska's giant aluminum company, Rusal, was a potential conflict of interest." NYT
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: Roger Stone arrives at a federal court appearance Tuesday. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo
   
TRUMP INC. -- "Trump's company plans to expand check of employees' legal status following report that it hired undocumented workers for years," by WaPo's Jonathan O'Connell, Elise Viebeck and Tracy Jan: "President Trump's company plans to institute E-Verify, a federal program that allows employers to check whether new hires are legally eligible to work in the United States, in every one of its golf clubs, hotels and resorts, following a Washington Post report that its club in Westchester County, N.Y., employed undocumented immigrants for years.

"'We are instituting E-Verify on all of our properties as soon as possible,' Eric Trump, one of the president's sons and executive vice president of the Trump Organization, said Tuesday, acknowledging that the company currently uses the program only at some locations. 'We're starting with the golf properties, and we are going to be doing all of them.'" WaPo

SCOOP -- "Malpass Is a Trump Finalist for World Bank President, Sources Say," by Bloomberg's Jennifer Jacobs, Saleha Mohsin and Andrew Mayeda: "A Donald Trump loyalist, Treasury Undersecretary David Malpass, is a finalist to be the president's choice for the next World Bank president, according to people familiar with the matter." Bloomberg

TOP-ED -- RYAN CROCKER in WAPO, "I was ambassador to Afghanistan. This deal is a surrender": "A framework agreement was announced on Monday calling for a cease-fire that could lead to the full withdrawal of U.S. troops. ... The framework was reached without the involvement of the Afghan government. The Taliban has said all along that it refuses to negotiate with the government, considering the government the illegitimate puppet of the U.S. occupation.

"By acceding to this Taliban demand, we have ourselves delegitimized the government we claim to support. This current process bears an unfortunate resemblance to the Paris peace talks during the Vietnam War. Then, as now, it was clear that by going to the table we were surrendering; we were just negotiating the terms of our surrender. The Taliban will offer any number of commitments, knowing that when we are gone and the Taliban is back, we will have no means of enforcing any of them." WaPo
       
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CHRISTIE WATCH -- "Chris Christie rips Kushner's dad: 'One of the most loathsome, disgusting crimes that I prosecuted,'" by WaPo's Michael Brice-Saddler: "Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie ... claims Kushner was still 'seething' from events that took place more than a decade prior - when Christie, as a U.S. attorney, prosecuted Kushner's father, Charles, for tax evasion, witness tampering and illegal campaign contributions, sending the elder Kushner to prison for 14 months. ... 

"He added, 'It's one of the most loathsome, disgusting crimes that I prosecuted when I was U.S. attorney,' Christie said during a segment with PBS's 'Firing Line With Margaret Hoover.' 'And I was a U.S. attorney in New Jersey, Margaret - so we had some loathsome and disgusting crime going on there!'" WaPo

HAPPENING THIS WEEKEND -- Get "Freezin' for a Reason" on Saturday with Special Olympics DC. POLITICO is thrilled to partner with the "Polar Plunge," an annual event that supports more than 1,600 Special Olympics DC athletes on Saturday, Feb. 2. Attendees will enjoy ICE YARDS festivities, including icy cocktails and local D.C. brews, fun activities, live music, an ice bar, food from neighborhood restaurants, D.C.'s largest group shotski attempt and so much more. You can register as an individual, as a team or join an existing team and take the plunge. Register

K STREET FILES -- "Coca-Cola tried to influence CDC on research and policy, new report states," by Jesse Chase-Lubitz
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
SPOTTED: Jim Mattis at the Palm. Lanny Davis was also there for lunch Tuesday, and Roger Stone went over to his table for a "friendly conversation that of course captured the attention of the room," according to our tipster. Stone was also spotted at the Hamilton for dinner last night. ... Former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) on the Acela from NYC to D.C.

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Chris Jansing, MSNBC senior national correspondent, celebrating in Hawaii. What she's been reading recently: "Steve Kornacki's 'The Red and the Blue' is just like he is on TV -- smart and fascinating and a little bit nerdy -- plus compellingly readable. I've downloaded 'Just Mercy: A Story of Justice and Redemption,' by Bryan Stevenson to bring on vacation." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute and former Boehner COS, is 44 ... POLITICO's G. Robert Hillman (hat tips: Ken Vogel, Ben Schreckinger and Jonathan Topaz) ... former Vice President Dick Cheney is 78 ... the king of Jordan, Abdullah II, is 57 ... Bob Ryan ... POLITICO's Natasha Korecki ... Chris Ariens, director of video at AdWeek ... Max Taves ... Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) is 39 ... Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) is 47 ... former Rep. Frank Wolf (R-Va.) is 8-0 ... Alfred C. Liggins III ... Rohit Chopra ... Nels Olson, vice chairman and co-leader of board and CEO services of Korn Ferry ... Lisa Desjardins, correspondent for the "PBS NewsHour" ...
 former U.S. Ambassador to Hungary Colleen Bell ... BuzzFeed's Sarah Mimms is 31 ... Lauren Schuck ... CBS News' Steven Portnoy ... 

... Maeve Reston, CNN national political reporter ... David Cordish is 79 ... Len Bickwit of Miller & Chevalier (h/t Megan Duero) ... Eileen McMahon ... Erin Waters (h/t Todd Breasseale) ... Cecil Swamidoss (h/t Heather Podesta) ... Nathan Leamer, policy adviser to FCC Chairman Ajit Pai, is 33 (h/ts Zach Graves and David Bahr) ... Caitlin Poling ... Hastie Afkhami, head of digital and SVP at Subject Matter ... Peter Lauria (h/t Liana Baker) ... Alexis Serfaty ... Andrew Ireland ... Doug Coulter ... Drew Bond ... ABC7's Kelly Lamp Wasilefski ... Edelman's Caroline Gallrein ... Bush WH alum Lea Hutchins, who recently married Michael Gilliam -- pic ... Brice Anderson is 61 ... Wayne E. White
 ... Evan Glass ... Wanda Moebius of Johnson & Johnson ... Marcela Sanchez, comms officer at World Bank ... Ileana Futter
               
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