Subject: POLITICO Playbook: SOTU is kind of useless, part II
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 05 Feb 2019 05:14:10 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Playbook is POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day                Feb 05, 2019 View in browser                   
 By Anna Palmer, Jake Sherman and Daniel Lippman 
         
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
LAST YEAR, we laid out why we thought the State of the Union was a bit worthless, both on a practical level and specifically because of how PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP governs. He speaks publicly all the time, so a speech in the House chamber, while longer than most of his missives, is still not terribly unique. As always, both sides are in their corners. To review, take a look at what we wrote last year.

BUT THIS YEAR, we are seeing signs that the State of the Union will be less believable than ever.

-- THE WHITE HOUSE IS TEEING UP that the message for this State of the Union is bipartisanship and working across the aisle. But, the only bipartisanship we can see is that members of both parties are increasingly opposed to TRUMP on issues he's putting front and center. 

REPUBLICANS have begun speaking out against his foreign policy, have snubbed him on his wall and are prepared to block him if he tries to build a border barrier on his own. The most recent example of bipartisanship was when the president ended the shutdown, and in that case, he adopted the Democrats' position.

TRUMP is a president who frequently urges moderation, and yet exercises his most extreme instincts. So you might forgive people who are naturally skeptical of the White House's message. 

-- THE FIRST LADY has invited a child named Joshua Trump to the SOTU, because he "has been bullied in school due to his last name." Of course, this is sad, and bullying is awful. But, again, it's a bit rich for the Trump White House to make bullying its issue du jour. Cryin' Chuck, Crooked Hillary, Da Nang Dick, Pocahontas, Lyin' Ted anyone? ("Joshua Trump's name got him bullied. Now the sixth-grader is going to the State of the Union," by WaPo's Eli Rosenberg) ... Full list of Trump's guests

WHAT YOU SHOULD WATCH FOR ... Any incremental movement on the border wall. Will the president alter, in any way, his position? ... A call for infrastructure spending would be well received in the chamber. ... Anything on USMCA, the trade deal Trump needs to pass ... Revealing the location of his second summit with Kim Jong Un.

THE SPEECH will begin at 9 p.m.

MORE ON THE SOTU ... 

-- NYT'S ANNIE KARNI and MAGGIE HABERMAN on A15: "For Trump, the State of the Union Is a Spectacle, and He Is Ready for It": "After spending part of the weekend at Mar-a-Lago, his club in Palm Beach, Fla., working on the speech, Mr. Trump spent two hours going over it with Stephen Miller, his chief policy adviser, in the Oval Office, according to his private schedule. 

"He also spent time on Monday practicing in the Map Room with a handful of senior administration officials. He was expected to do another teleprompter-and-lectern practice session there on Tuesday, with his aides giving him notes. ...

"Mr. Trump, aides said, views the speech and all of the pomp and circumstance that accompany it with some reverence, and aides said he puts more time into his script because it is one instance where he usually sticks to it. For all of the president's fabled norm-busting, there are aspects of the conventional presidency that appeal to him, none more so than standing in the hallowed halls of Congress, with all eyes on him speaking to the nation." NYT

-- WAPO'S DAVID NAKAMURA: "In State of the Union, Trump to call for 'comity,' but political rivals scoff amid heightened political warfare"

TOP-EDS ... 

-- NYT: "A More Honest State of the Union": "By many measures, America is thriving. The economy is humming, and unemployment is at 4 percent. High-school graduation rates are at an all-time high, and teenage pregnancy rates are at an all-time low. The crime rate is way down, and illegal immigration has been declining for over a decade.

"And yet: Polls show that three in five Americans think the country is on the wrong track. A majority expect things to get worse in the coming year. The president's job approval numbers are underwater; Congress's even more so. As President Trump prepares to deliver his delayed State of the Union address on Tuesday, he might want to ask himself why people are so unsettled." NYT

-- WSJ: "Trump's Re-Election Challenge": "As Mr. Trump will no doubt tell Congress in his State of the Union address Tuesday evening, his main achievement has been re-energizing what had been a long but weak and fading economic expansion. As the nearby table shows, the economy nearly dipped into recession at the end of 2015 and early 2016 before recovering to its 2% Obama-era trend. ... 

"Mr. Trump can help guard against an economic slump in the next two years by stepping back from his 2018 burst of protectionism. First, get as good a trade deal as he can with China, declare victory, and spend the next two years monitoring how well Beijing abides by its terms. Second, withdraw the threat of car tariffs on Europe as he negotiates a trade deal with the European Union. The U.S. economy can't grow at 3% or higher if China and Europe aren't growing. ... 

"Democrats may give Mr. Trump a chance by running too far to the left, but voters may take even that risk unless Mr. Trump can point to prosperity and give more Americans more confidence in him personally. By now we've learned that last point is beyond our counsel." WSJ

Good Tuesday morning. MEANWHILE ... PAUL RYAN is hitting the speaking circuit. He will speak at the spring conference of the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care in San Diego on Feb. 21.

ABOUT LAST NIGHT -- "Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Dines With Trump at White House," by WSJ's Nick Timiraos: "Mr. Powell has been a frequent target of criticism by Mr. Trump since last summer. The central bank raised interest rates four times last year, prompting the president to vent to his advisers about whether he could dismiss the Fed chairman. Mr. Trump hadn't met with Mr. Powell since he tapped him to lead the Fed in November 2017. Mr. Powell became Fed chairman a year ago.

"Mr. Powell's No. 2, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, also attended the dinner. The Fed said both men joined Messrs. Trump and [Treasury Secretary Steven] Mnuchin at the invitation of the president to discuss the economy. ... The dinner, which occurred on Mr. Powell's 66th birthday, lasted about 90 minutes and steak was served, according to a person familiar with the meeting." WSJ
       
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THE LATEST IN VIRGINIA ... NYT'S JONATHAN MARTIN in Richmond: "Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax of Virginia Denounces Sexual Assault Allegation as a 'Smear'": Fairfax "emphatically denied on Monday a woman's claim that he sexually assaulted her in 2004, suggesting at one point that Gov. Ralph Northam's supporters were trying to block his ascent to the governorship at a moment when Mr. Northam is besieged by demands that he resign over charges of racism.

"'Does anybody think it's any coincidence that on the eve of potentially my being elevated that that's when this smear comes out?' Mr. Fairfax told reporters surrounding him in the rotunda of the state Capitol about whether he believes Mr. Northam, a fellow Democrat, was behind the accusation's coming to light.

"He softened his suggestion as he left the Capitol Monday night, telling reporters he had 'no indication' that Mr. Northam was responsible. But in the same conversation, Mr. Fairfax hinted that Levar Stoney, the mayor of Richmond and a potential rival to Mr. Fairfax for the 2021 Democratic nomination for governor, may have played a role - praising the acumen of a reporter who inquired whether Mr. Stoney might have been responsible. 

"Asked if he had any involvement in leaking the claims of assault, which first surfaced Sunday night on a right-wing website, Mr. Stoney said, 'The insinuation is 100 percent not true, and frankly it's offensive.'" NYT

COMING ATTRACTIONS ... JAMES ARKIN: "Cornyn braces for brutal Texas reelection battle": "Sen. John Cornyn watched with alarm when Beto O'Rourke nearly won Texas' other Senate seat last year - alarmed that it could be him on the losing end when he's up in 2020.

"Determined not to get caught off guard by shifting demographics and fired-up Democrats, Cornyn is revving up his reelection campaign earlier than ever after O'Rourke's near upset of Sen. Ted Cruz. Cornyn has already stockpiled more campaign cash than any other senator: $5.8 million. He's filling high-level campaign jobs.

"And crucially, Cornyn secured early endorsements from Cruz and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, two of the most prominent conservatives in the state, in a show of force to prevent a primary challenge. ... [M]illions of new voters have flocked to the state in recent years, and reliably Republican areas in the suburbs outside Dallas and Houston - where Cornyn has racked up big margins in past elections - have shifted hard toward Democrats." POLITICO

SMART STORY ... MELANIE ZANONA: "'They basically have nothing to do': Trio of Republicans face life in exile": "They're the outcasts of Capitol Hill, personae non gratae even in their own party. Duncan Hunter, Chris Collins and Steve King have been excommunicated from the House GOP conference in the most public way possible: stripped of their committee assignments and forced to watch the legislating from the sidelines. 

"Now, while the rest of their colleagues work on crafting bills, the trio of committee exiles are searching for ways to spend their time on Capitol Hill so they're not just waiting around to vote or aimlessly roaming the hallways.

"Their options, however, are limited. They could sign up to deliver short, late-night or early morning speeches on the House floor, but those take place outside normal legislating hours and typically fade into the C-SPAN abyss. King this year has spoken twice on the floor, spending his time defending his racist comments to The New York Times. Neither Hunter nor Collins has given a floor speech this year." POLITICO
           
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THE INVESTIGATIONS -- "New York prosecutors seek records from Trump inauguration committee: Sources," by ABC's John Santucci, Josh Margolin and Matthew Mosk: "Prosecutors in New York's Southern District have subpoenaed documents from President Donald Trump's inauguration committee, sources with direct knowledge told ABC News, indicating that even as the special counsel probe appears to be nearing an end, another investigation that could hamstring the president and his lawyers is widening. ...

"Prosecutors are seeking documents and records related to the committee's donors to the massive inauguration fund, according to sources familiar with the request. Prosecutors also are seeking information on attendees to the events surrounding the inauguration, including benefits to top-level donors such as photo opportunities with Trump, sources said." ABC

-- NYT'S MAGGIE HABERMAN and BEN PROTESS: "People familiar with the subpoena said prosecutors are interested in potential money laundering as well as election fraud, though it is possible that the prosecutors do not suspect the inaugural committee of such violations. The prosecutors cited those crimes in the subpoena simply as justification for their demand for documents, the people said.

"Only one individual was named as part of the subpoena's demand for documents: Imaad Zuberi, a former fund-raiser for President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton who was seeking inroads with Mr. Trump, and whose company, Avenue Ventures, gave $900,000 to the inaugural committee. The subpoena also seeks documents related to his company." NYT

-- WSJ'S REBECCA BALLHAUS and REBECCA DAVIS O'BRIEN: "In the final weeks leading up to the inauguration, the fund's deputy chairman, Richard Gates, asked several vendors if they would be willing to accept payment directly from donors, or through channels outside the inaugural committee, two people familiar with the matter said." WSJ

-- "Paul Manafort to be sentenced March 13," by CNN's Katelyn Polantz

NANCY COOK: "The plan to keep Trump's taxes hidden": "The new House Democratic majority is widely expected to test one of Donald Trump's ultimate red lines by demanding the president's personal tax returns - and the Trump administration has been gearing up for months to fight back hard. Trump's Treasury Department is readying plans to drag the expected Democratic request for Trump's past tax filings, which he has closely guarded, into a quagmire of arcane legal arguments.

"At the same time, officials plan to publicly cast the request as an overtly partisan exercise. The two-pronged plan was developed by a handful of top political appointees and lawyers inside the department - with the ultimate goal of keeping the president's past returns private, according to four people familiar with the administration's approach." POLITICO
                 PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: Pope Francis attends an Interreligious meeting in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Monday, Feb. 4, marking the first papal trip ever to the Arabian Peninsula. | Andrew Medichini/AP Photo
   
JEWISH INSIDER: "Trump to appoint Elan Carr Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Anti-Semitism": "Carr is a veteran of the United States Army and served as a judge in the Judge Advocate General's (JAG) Corp. He was also a Deputy District Attorney in Los Angeles County. In 2014, Carr ran against Rep. Ted Lieu in an unsuccessful bid for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives." JI

FOR YOUR RADAR -- "U.S. officials fear IS fighters are lying low, not defeated," by AP's Matthew Lee: "President Donald Trump is expected to declare near-total triumph over the Islamic State group in Syria in his State of the Union address, but U.S. defense officials are increasingly fearful that the militants are simply biding their time until the Americans leave the battlefield as planned. IS militants have lost territory since Trump's surprise announcement in December that he was pulling U.S. forces out, but military officials warn the fighters could regroup within six months to a year after the Americans leave.

"A Defense Department watchdog report released Monday warned of just such a possibility. The Islamic State group 'remains a potent force of battle-hardened and well-disciplined fighters that "could likely resurge in Syria' absent continued counterterrorism pressure,"' the report from the inspector general said." AP
           
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Members of Congress: Now is the time to act. Our nation's infrastructure is crumbling.
         
NAHAL TOOSI: "Even skeptics wonder: Does Trump deserve some foreign policy credit?": "The authoritarian rule of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela is in peril. Afghanistan could finally see a peace deal with the Taliban and a drawdown of American troops. North Korea has stopped its nuclear tests - for now.

"President Donald Trump is expected to tout these developments as major foreign policy wins during his State of the Union address Tuesday night, rebutting critics who say Trump's main role on the international stage has been to bully American allies and further destabilize combustible regions with rash decisions.

"But while 'win' may be too strong a word - each of these situations is fragile and could portend disaster - even the president's skeptics are pondering the question: Doesn't Trump deserve some credit? ... 'He's a disrupter. That is leading to some very healthy debate about what are our goals,' said Ivo Daalder, who served as President Barack Obama's ambassador to NATO and a frequent Trump critic." POLITICO

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION -- "Former Koch official runs EPA chemical research," by Annie Snider: "The Trump administration has placed a former Koch Industries official in charge of research that will shape how the government regulates a class of toxic chemicals contaminating millions of Americans' drinking water - an issue that could have major financial repercussions for his former employer. 

"David Dunlap, a deputy in EPA's Office of Research and Development, is playing a key role as the agency decides how to protect people from the pollution left behind at hundreds of military bases and factories across the country." POLITICO

SCOOP -- "Trump picks World Bank skeptic Malpass to lead institution," by Victoria Guida and Ben White: "President Donald Trump is expected to tap Treasury Department official David Malpass as the U.S. pick to lead the World Bank, according to senior administration officials, a clear sign the administration wants to rein in the international financial institution.'" POLITICO

BUZZFEED: "A Lobbyist At The Trump Tower Meeting Received Half A Million Dollars In Suspicious Payments," by Emma Loop, Anthony Cormier, Jason Leopold, Tanya Kozyreva and John Templon

WHAT THE LEFT IS READING -- "'There Is Going to Be a War Within the Party. We Are Going to Lean Into It,'" by David Freedlander in POLITICO Magazine: "The Justice Democrats helped get Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez elected. Who are they after next?" POLITICO Magazine

MEDIAWATCH ... HOLLYWOOD REPORTER: "CNN Cuts Ties With Two More Pro-Trump Contributors," by Jeremy Barr: "Former elected representatives Jack Kingston and Andr&eacute; Bauer are no longer on the network's payroll." Hollywood Reporter
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
TRANSITIONS -- Jess O'Connell, former EMILY's List executive director and DNC CEO, Emily Ruiz, former Hillary for America state director, and Tim Lim, former Bully Pulpit Interactive partner, have launched NEWCO Strategies. Its clients include Onward Together, the DNC and Korean Americans in Action.

-- TRUMP ALUMNI -- Annie Donaldson Talley, who served as deputy White House counsel under Don McGahn, is joining Luther Strange & Associates LLC, the Birmingham-based law firm founded by former Sen. Luther Strange (R-Ala.). Donaldson left the White House in December. She will be based in Montgomery. (hat tip: Eliana Johnson)

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Ali Spiesman, agent at CAA. What she's been reading: "'The Sibling Effect' by Jeffrey Kluger, about the complexities surrounding sibling relationships. The book provided tremendous insight about the impact of birth order and effect of life events on my relationship with my younger sister, as well as family dynamics." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Michael Steel, partner at Hamilton Place Strategies ... Omarosa Manigault Newman is 45 ... Tom Reynolds, who works in policy comms at Facebook ... Clark Stevens, director of the office of government affairs and strategic partnerships at Airbnb ... Jaime Harrison, DNC associate chair and counselor, is 43 (h/t Jon Haber) ... Phil Kim of KKR ... Drew Godinich is 28 ... Ryan Velasco with Ogilvy PR ... Matt Coudert is 55 ... William Upton, account executive at CRC Public Relations ... Shelly Palmer ... POLITICO's Glen Mazza ... Gina Hyams ... Jayne Chapman ... Marshall Project reporter Alysia Santo ... Grant Carlisle ... Trevor Kincaid, an alum of Brunswick Group (h/t Andrew Bates)
 ... Sarabeth Berman, global head of public affairs at Teach for All, is 35 (hubby tip: Evan Osnos) ... Kristina Baum ...

... Hannah Alani, reporter at the Post and Courier ... Mike Kiernan ... Vinoda Basnayake, partner at Nelson Mullins ... McKinsey's Matt Cooke ... Daniel Hoff, the federal lobbyist for Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (h/t Bethany Hoff) ... BuzzFeed's Lisa Tozzi ... Valerie Hamilton McMakin (h/t Kaily Grabemann) ... Bret Jacobson, partner at digital firm Red Edge (h/ts wife Trice Jacobson and Laura Whitefield) ... Lynsey Humphrey ... Jordan Wilson ... Nicole Levy ... Armstrong Williams is 57 ... Jillian Davidson, SVP and state research director at America Rising, is 3-0 ... Ralph Z. Hallow of the Washington Times ... Edelman's Ashley Whitlock ... former Michigan Gov. Jennifer
 Granholm is 6-0 (h/t Mitchell Rivard) ... Margaret Franklin ... Rachel Swartz ... Rizwan Asghar ... Bob Gibson ... Phyllis Watt Jordan ... Richard Parker (h/t Ashley Chang) ... Andy Baldwin ... Lisa Kohnke ... Jane Bryant Quinn is 8-0 (h/t AP)
       
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