Subject: POLITICO Playbook: The national emergency, and how it messes up Washington for Trump
From: "Anna Palmer Jake Sherman Daniel Lippman" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2019 05:05:31 -0600
List-Id: <1376319.xt.local>

Presented by the BlueCross BlueShield Association: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the day in Washington                Feb 15, 2019 View in browser                   
 By Jake Sherman, Anna Palmer and Daniel Lippman 
         
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              DRIVING THE DAY      
FIFTY-FIVE DAYS after PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP bucked his party and decided to shut down the government for his border wall, he emerged with a deal he could've gotten 55 days ago: $1.375 billion for border barriers, and a national emergency.

THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY will pull "$600 million ... from the Treasury Department's drug forfeiture fund; $2.5 billion ... from the Pentagon's drug interdiction program; and through an emergency declaration: $3.5 billion from the Pentagon's military construction budget," per ABC's John Parkinson, Benjamin Siegel and Jon Karl. ABC

AND IN THE PROCESS, he's made Washington even more brutal for himself. 

HERE IS WHY ... 
 
-- TRUMP'S RELATIONSHIP WITH CONGRESS IS GOING TO TAKE A TURN FOR THE WORSE. If the president declares a national emergency, SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI is sure to try to overturn it. A resolution like that is certain to pass the House. Then it moves to the Senate, where SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL has to take it up within a few weeks.

Republicans are going to have a tough choice: whether to back the president on this declaration, or buck him. Several Senate Republicans have expressed pause over the national emergency route. This is going to be problematic for Trump, and will certainly split the GOP. More from Josh Gerstein on the legal war

-- THE SPENDING FIGHTS WILL ONLY GET WORSE. The White House is making clear the president is on the hunt for more money for his wall. This is going to make the appropriations process -- which will stretch from now until September -- a lot harder. 

LAWMAKERS ARE GOING TO ask more questions. Democrats are certain to insist on provisions in these bills to ensure the money can't be lapped up by the president for other purposes in the future. Washington is likely to be caught in nonstop stopgap measures from now until at least the end of this Congress.

TRUMP DID HAVE A WIN HERE: The $23 billion this bill provides for Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement is the largest investment ever in those two agencies. Anita Kumar on how Trump saved face with conservatives

THE QUICK TOCKS ... "'Off the rails': Inside Trump's attempt to claim victory in his border wall defeat," by WaPo's Bob Costa, Rachael Bade, Josh Dawsey and Seung Min Kim: "After three weeks of pained negotiations to keep the federal government open, President Trump almost blew the whole thing up again on Thursday. Headed for another defeat on his signature promise to make Mexico pay for a southern border wall, the president was frustrated after a briefing by Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen and others on details of the final deal to avoid a shutdown, according to officials involved in the discussions.

"Trump threatened not to sign the legislation, the officials said, putting the government on the brink of another damaging shutdown. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was on the phone with Trump at least three times during the course of the nerve-racking day, pressing him to stay the course and asserting that Democrats had actually lost the spending fight, two people familiar with the conversations said." WaPo

THURSDAY was a fascinating day in the Capitol. The entire place was frozen until TRUMP made a decision on what to do on the bill. Around 3 p.m., MCCONNELL walked the short distance from his Capitol office to the Senate floor. We were with a group of reporters, and his staff said he was about to speak on the floor.

MOMENTS LATER, McConnell was at the Republican leader desk on the floor, and was standing, readying to speak. The only problem was SEN. CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-IOWA) was speaking, and didn't want to stop. McConnell's staff tried to get Grassley to yield, and he wouldn't. Finally, he stopped speaking, and said, "I hope the next time I have the floor, I won't be interrupted."

MCCONNELL then spoke, saying he had spoken to the president, and he would sign the bill. He then went to apologize to Grassley, who said McConnell was "simply rude" for asking him to stop his speech. The two later made up.

-- FOX NEWS' CHAD PERGRAM (@ChadPergram): "McConnell's favorite expression is that 'there's no education in the second kick of a mule.' No fool he, McConnell made sure he locked the President in, announcing Mr. Trump's intentions publicly on the floor. That would bind the President to stand by his word."
       
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FROM 30,000 FEET -- "Trump's Face-Saving Way Out of Crisis Raises Fears Over Rule of Law," by NYT's Charlie Savage: "[W]hile the move means the country will avoid another protracted shutdown, legal specialists warned that the long-term costs to American democracy could be steep. As a matter of political reality, such a declaration permits Mr. Trump to keep the government open without losing face with his core supporters by surrendering to congressional Democrats on his signature issue. 

"As a matter of legal reality, the proposal is likely to be bogged down in a court challenge, leaving any actual construction work based on emergency powers spending an uncertain and, at best, distant prospect.

"But no matter what else happens, Mr. Trump's willingness to invoke emergency powers to circumvent Congress is likely to go down as an extraordinary violation of constitutional norms - setting a precedent that future presidents of both parties may emulate to unilaterally achieve their own policy goals." NYT

-- "Trump once called executive action on immigration dangerous, unconstitutional and impeachable," by CNN's Andrew Kaczynski

Good Friday morning.

NYT'S SHANE GOLDMACHER on A1: "Amazon's Exit Forces a Reckoning for N.Y. Political Leaders" 

-- "Amazon to New York: Drop dead: 'They assumed their consumer popularity translated into a free ticket to gentrify and instead got their lunch handed to them,' a non-profit exec said," by Steven Overly, David Giambusso and Dan Rubinstein

ANDREW RESTUCCIA: "Trump technically obese, despite doctor's clean bill of health": "President Donald Trump gained four pounds over the last year, according to a new assessment from his doctor, an increase in weight that makes him obese under the technical definition of the term.

"But Trump's doctor, Sean Conley, nonetheless determined that the president 'remains in very good health overall' in a memorandum released by the White House on Thursday. Conley recorded Trump's height as 6'3" and his weight as 243 pounds. Last year, the president clocked in at 239 pounds, according to an assessment by his former doctor, Ronny Jackson." POLITICO

2020 WATCH ... 

-- WONDER HOW LONG THIS WILL LAST? -- BURGESS EVERETT and MARIANNE LEVINE: "Kumbaya caucus: Dem senators running in 2020 insist they adore each other": "As many as nine Democratic senators will soon be jostling for the right to take on President Donald Trump - a primary election that's expected to be nasty, brutish and long. But in the early days of the campaign, it's been all sunshine and rainbows inside the Senate Democratic Caucus.

"The flock of presidential hopefuls have not spared at caucus lunches, according to multiple Senate Democrats, or attacked one another in the press. To the contrary, they've portrayed one another as long-time friends all working toward the common purpose of defeating Trump." POLITICO

-- DAVID SIDERS: "Beto heading to Wisconsin and Illinois as 2020 decision nears"

-- "Bloomberg won't decide on 2020 until March at the earliest," by CNN's Cristina Alesci: "Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will not decide on whether to run for president in 2020 until March at the earliest, according to a person familiar with his planning." CNN

THE DEBATES -- "NBC News, MSNBC, Telemundo to host first Democratic presidential primary debate"

-- DAVID SIDERS: "For its first two debates this year, the DNC said a candidate may qualify for the stage either by reaching 1 percent support in three separate polls - including national polls or early nominating state polls - or by meeting a grass-roots fundraising threshold. 

"For the first debate, a candidate seeking to qualify through the fundraising method must receive donations from 65,000 people in at least 20 different states, the DNC official said." POLITICO
           
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TRUMP'S FRIDAY -- The president will speak on national security and the border at 10 a.m. in the Rose Garden. At 4 p.m., Trump and first lady Melania Trump will leave the White House en route to Mar-a-Lago. 

SUNDAY SO FAR ... 
          
CBS
 
"Face the Nation": Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) ... Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). Panel: Rachael Bade, David Nakamura, Leslie Sanchez and Eugene Scott
   
CNN
 
"State of the Union": Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) ... Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Panel: Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Md.), Jennifer Granholm, Rick Santorum and Linda Chavez (guest host: Dana Bash)
   
CNN
 
"Inside Politics": Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Josh Dawsey and Abby Phillip (guest host: Phil Mattingly)
   
NBC
 
"Meet the Press": Tom Perez. Panel: Eddie Glaude Jr., Jonah Goldberg, Eliana Johnson and Amy Walter
   
FOX
 
"FOX News Sunday": Rush Limbaugh. Panel: Marc Short, Katie Pavlich, Bob Woodward and Charles Lane
   
ABC
 
"This Week": Panel: Matthew Dowd, Molly Ball, Susan Ferrechio and Shawna Thomas
                         PLAYBOOK READS         

PHOTO DU JOUR: Embattled Venezuelan President Nicol&aacute;s Maduro sits for an interview with the AP on Thursday, during which he revealed that his government has been holding secret meetings with a U.S. special envoy. | Ariana Cubillos/AP Photo
   
KNOWING MIKIE SHERRILL -- POLITICO MAGAZINE'S MICHAEL KRUSE: "The Most Important New Woman in Congress Is Not Who You Think"

WAPO'S GREG MILLER: "Andrew McCabe's disturbing account of working for Sessions and Trump": "He didn't read intelligence reports and mixed up classified material with what he had seen in newspaper clips. He seemed confused about the structure and purpose of organizations and became overwhelmed when meetings covered multiple subjects. He blamed immigrants for nearly every societal problem and uttered racist sentiments with shocking callousness. This isn't how President Trump is depicted in a new book by former deputy FBI director Andrew McCabe.

"Instead, it's McCabe's account [in his new book "The Threat"] of what it was like to work for then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions. The FBI was better off when 'you all only hired Irishmen,' Sessions said in one diatribe about the bureau's workforce. 'They were drunks but they could be trusted. Not like all those new people with nose rings and tattoos - who knows what they're doing?'" WaPo ... $20.03 on Amazon

-- MCCABE will be on ABC's "The View" on Tuesday in his first talk show appearance. 

FOR YOUR RADAR -- "AP Interview: Maduro reveals secret meetings with U.S. envoy," by Ian Phillips and Joshua Goodman in Caracas, Venezuela: "President Nicolas Maduro said in an AP interview Thursday that his foreign minister recently held secret talks in New York with the U.S. special envoy to Venezuela [Elliott Abrams], even as the Trump administration was publicly backing an effort to unseat the Venezuelan president." AP

-- "Mnuchin says U.S. had 'productive' trade meetings with China," by Reuters' Michael Martina in Beijing
           
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TRUMP INC. -- "Blaming Political Climate, Trumps Give Up on New Hotels," by NYT's Steve Eder, Ben Protess and Eric Lipton: "In the early months of the Trump administration, with the president no longer running his family business, his eldest sons embarked on a plan to roll out two new hotel lines in dozens of American cities. It reflected the ambitions of 'the next generation of the company,' President Trump's son Eric said at the time. Now, in a striking reversal, the Trump Organization is no longer pursuing the signature initiative, according to company officials.

"Plans for the two hotel chains, Scion and American Idea, are to be shelved indefinitely, most likely for the remainder of the presidency. As a practical matter, that means calling off just one agreement, in Mississippi, though two years ago the Trump Organization said it had as many as 30 potential deals in the pipeline." NYT

K-FILE -- "Trump's pick to lead the World Bank once described himself as 25-year opponent to the institution," by CNN's Andrew Kaczynski: "President Donald Trump's pick to lead the World Bank described himself in 2011 remarks as a 25-year opponent to the institution and others like it, saying that they needed to be 'thrown away' and started over from scratch. David Malpass made the comments while speaking to a local Republican gathering in Albertson, New York, in May 2011. CNN's KFile reviewed a recording of his remarks which were posted on YouTube at the time." CNN
                 PLAYBOOKERS      
SPOTTED: James Comey arriving at DCA ... Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) juggling two phones while walking toward the Capitol on North Capitol Street by H Street ... Marc Short walking east on I Street toward Vermont Avenue just before noon wearing AirPods, dark shades and a neon green tie ... Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and former VP Joe Biden on Thursday chatting in the lobby of 101 Constitution.

TRANSITION -- Jesse Hunt will be comms director for the NRSC. He was the NRCC's national press secretary last cycle. (hat tip: Scott Bland)

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Jen Wlach, managing director at Mercury. What she's been reading recently: "I recently read (and loved) 'Everybody Behaves Badly' by Lesley M. M. Blume. It's a fascinating behind-the-scenes recounting of the genesis of Hemingway's 'The Sun Also Rises.' Spoiler: That classic contains a lot more non-fiction than you think." Playbook Plus Q&A

BIRTHDAYS: Harold Burson is 98 (h/t Catherine Sullivan) ... retired Adm. Jim Stavridis, operating executive at the Carlyle Group and chairman of the board of counselors at McLarty Associates, is 64 ... BuzzFeed alum Ben Purdy ... TPM's Josh Marshall is 5-0 ... Katarina Price Frans ... WSJ's Amanda Lilly ... Jonathan Salant of NJ Advance Media ... Jackie Kier ... Carrie Sheffield, founder of Bold ... Alex Siegel, deputy executive director of the RJC (h/t Matt Brooks) ... Toni Hall ... Keely Herring ... Madalina Ciulin ... Jules Johnston ... Sourav Bhowmick ... Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.) is 54 ... Beth Solomon, managing director of external affairs and development at CARE ... Peter Feldman
 (h/t Tim Burger) ... Lindsey Teague ... Bobby Panzenbeck ... Jason Thielman, COS for Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) ... Kent Talbert ... Deloitte's Priya Singh ... 

... Sarah Dolan, executive director at America Rising (h/t Colin Reed) ... Grace Lloyd ... Allison Berkowitz ... Christopher Anderson ... Andrea Bitely ... Francisco Bencosme ... Paige Moody, special adviser to the CEO of CARE ... Mike Curto, managing partner at Squire Patton Boggs' D.C. office (h/ts Jon Haber) ... Clare Flannery ... Dean Petrone ... Linda Kramer Jenning (h/t Steve) ... Amy Clark ... Valentina Pereda ... Kerry Feehery, senior policy adviser at Holland & Knight (hubby tip: John) ... Dan O'Brien ... Shalini Vajjhala ... John Bisio of Walmart public affairs ... Brian Wilson ... William John Cox ... Amanda Gordon ... Janie Kim ... Robert Swan ... Gerry Dickinson ... Linda Roth
 ... Kirk Brown ... Andrew Moyer ... Nick Bauer ... Chad Maisel (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)
       
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