Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: The details for the first 2 presidential primary debates — Senate Dems play nice as many run for higher office — NYC-area House Dems could attract primary challengers
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 15 Feb 2019 09:04:02 -0600
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02/15/2019 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Morning Score will not publish on Monday, Feb. 18. Our next newsletter will publish on Tuesday, Feb. 19. 

Editor's Note: This edition of Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Campaign Pro subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here. 

          QUICK FIX         
- The Democratic National Committee announced details for the first two Democratic presidential debates in June and July, including how to get on stage.

- A handful of Senate Democrats are considering White House runs, but so far they've been nothing but complimentary of one another. However, the spending bill shows a split in their voting records.

- Emboldened by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's 2018 victory, insurgents are eyeing challenges to many New York City-area House Democrats.

Happy Friday! No shutdown! Enjoy the long weekend if you have one. Email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro. 

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @lbarronlopez.

Days until the 2019 election: 263

Days until the 2020 election: 627
          THE TOPLINES         
THE DEBATE STAGE - The DNC is out with details for the first two presidential primary debates. The first debates will be "limited" to 20 candidates, split out over two nights if necessary. NBC News/MSNBC/Telemundo will host the debate in June and CNN gets the July debate (more details on dates, locations and format are forthcoming). A candidate can get on the stage through either polling or fundraising. 

"For its first two debates this year, the DNC said a candidate may qualify for the stage either by reaching 1 percent support in three separate polls - including national polls or early nominating state polls" POLITICO's David Siders reported. "For the first debate, a candidate seeking to qualify through the fundraising method must receive donations from 65,000 people in at least 20 different states." If more than 20 candidates qualify (gulp), "the field will be winnowed using a methodology that gives preference to candidates meeting both the polling and fundraising thresholds, followed by candidates with the highest polling average."

But of course, not every poll will qualify. A candidate must get 1 percent in a national poll or a poll in one of the four early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Nevada) from an approved list of pollsters, per HuffPost's Ariel Edwards-Levy. POLITICO polling guru Steve Shepard could only recall two polls that qualify so far (only polls from Jan. 1 to two weeks before the debate count): A February Monmouth national poll and a January ABC News/Washington Post national poll. Candidates who broke 1 percent in both: Former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, and former Rep. Beto O'Rourke. 

If you include two December 2018 polls - a national CNN poll and a Iowa Des Moines Register/CNN poll - all the aforementioned candidates would break into three poll territory and the field would expand to include former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Sen. Sherrod Brown. Meanwhile, the first fundraising deadline for 2019 is two months from today, April 15. But if you're looking for an early fundraising benchmark: Harris was already more than halfway there in the first 24 hours of her campaign, when she amassed 38,000 donors from all 50 states.
          IN THE TRENCHES         
PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD - There could be as many as nine Senate Democrats who get into the presidential race. But so far, they're playing nice. "The flock of presidential hopefuls have not sparred at caucus lunches, according to multiple Senate Democrats, or attacked one another in the press," POLITICO Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine reported. "To the contrary, they've portrayed one another as long-time friends all working toward the common purpose of defeating Trump." That doesn't mean there hasn't already been disagreements: 2020ers were split on supporting the spending deal to avert a government shutdown, write POLITICO's Andrew Desiderio and Marianne. 

- Howard Schultz took his maybe-independent run for president to D.C., holding an event at a local synagogue. But crosstown, Democrats at the party's winter meeting shrugged him off. "Interviews with more than a dozen party officials, activists and operatives at the DNC's winter meeting depicted a Democratic Party markedly less concerned about Schultz after two weeks of awkward public appearances and critical press surrounding the billionaire," POLITICO's David Siders and Chris Cadelago reported. 

- Rep. Barbara Lee endorsed her fellow Californian Harris, per CNN's Nia-Malika Henderson.

- O'Rourke is making stops in the Midwest today and Saturday, David reported.

PRIMARY PROBLEMS - Don't look now, but a wave of primary challengers could be coming for New York City-area Democrats. "In Manhattan, Jerry Nadler, the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, could be challenged," The New York Times' Shane Goldmacher reported. "On Long Island, a Democratic National Committee member is making noises about taking on Tom Suozzi. In Brooklyn, a rematch is in the works in what was one of the nation's closest primaries in 2018. And in the Bronx and Westchester, some progressives are pushing to unseat Eliot Engel". Adem Bunkeddeko and Suraj Patel, who ran competitive primary challenges in 2018 in New York City, are both considering another run.

THE LATEST IN VIRGINIA - Gov. Ralph Northam seems intent on staying in office. But has he won any measure of forgiveness from officials and residents of the state for the racist photo in his yearbook? "Right now, the ball's in his court," state Del. Lamont Bagby, the chairman of the state's legislative black caucus, told The New York Times' Jonathan Martin, John Eligon and Campbell Robertson. More: "A coalition of black elected officials and civic leaders has released seven pages of demands, asking the governor to increase funding for historically black colleges and universities in the state, create an office of equity and inclusion, and create a fund to support minority-owned businesses."

- A panel of federal judges ordered the state to adopt a new map for the state's House of Delegates, the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Graham Moomaw reported.

UP NEXT - Candidates who lost in 2018 are eyeing another spin in 2020. Some candidates who are kicking the idea around, per Roll Call's Simone Path&eacute;: Former Rep. David Valadao could run in CA-21, AZ-08's Democratic nominee Hiral Tipirneni is thinking about running in AZ-06, and Democrats Matt Longjohn (MI-06) and Dan Feehan (MN-01) are being encouraged to run again.

- Texas House Republicans are fretting about tougher reelection battles. The Fort Worth Star-Telegram's Andrea Drusch reported that members of the Texas delegation met with the NRCC "to request more help with their races."

- Kentucky radio host Matt Jones told McClatchy's Lesley Clark and Daniel Desrochers that he's "50/50" on if he'll try to challenge Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (here's a great March 2018 profile of Jones in POLITICO Magazine). 

FIRST IN SCORE - STAFFING UP - Arkansas Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin will be the chairman of the Republican Lieutenant Governors Association. "The RLGA was instrumental to my campaign from the moment I announced my intention to serve as lieutenant governor, and I am excited about the opportunity to support the next generation of Republican leaders all across the country," he said in a statement.

- Jesse Hunt will be the communications director of the NRSC, Campaign Pro's Scott Bland reported. He was the national press secretary of the NRCC last cycle.

POLLS POLLS POLLS - OH Predictive Insight is out with an early Arizona Senate poll. In a hypothetical matchup between GOP Sen. Martha McSally and Democrat Mark Kelly, she leads 46 percent to 44 percent. In a potential matchup with Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, she's up 49 percent to 41 percent (600 likely voters, Feb. 12-13).

- In a poll from Monmouth University, New Jerseyans aren't feeling Booker's bid for the presidency. Forty-two percent feel he wouldn't make a good president (37 percent do), and 58 percent said he won't be able to serve effectively as the Garden State's senator while he runs (34 percent thinks he can). He does still have a positive approval rating 48 percent to 36 percent (604 New Jersey adults, Feb 8-10).

CODA - HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Meet the Colorado man who killed a mountain lion with his bare hands," from KUNC.
    
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