Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: The barriers ahead of the 2020 census — Bloomberg won’t run for president — Primary talk bubbles up in key Senate races
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Wed, 06 Mar 2019 09:03:04 -0600
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03/06/2019 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaign subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
          QUICK FIX         
- Census Day 2020 is just over a year away, and a nationwide redistricting battle will kick off soon after. Undercounting, misinformation campaigns and what questions are included could affect the count of the population.

- Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is not running for president but committed parts of his fortune to defeating President Donald Trump.

- Primaries could be brewing in key Senate races. Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who is considering a run in Arizona, criticized former astronaut Mark Kelly, while Republicans in North Carolina fumed about Sen. Thom Tillis' plans to vote against Trump's national emergency declaration.

Good Wednesday morning. Email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the great Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @PoliticoScott, @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @lbarronlopez.

Days until the NC-09 primary election: 69

Days until the Kentucky and Mississippi general elections: 244

Days until the 2020 election: 608
          THE TOPLINES         
THE 2020 CENSUS - We're a little over a year away from Census Day 2020 (April 1, for all of you who don't yet have it circled on your calendars), a major first step to determining how the nation's political maps will look for the next decade.

A recent survey from the Census Bureau found that just about two-thirds of respondents were extremely or very likely to fill out the census form. Typically, younger, less educated and minority Americans were less likely to say they will fill out the census. There are other barriers to obtaining an accurate count, as well. (The City University of New York mapped the "hard to count" areas of the country from 2010.) 

With House seats up for grabs, the count matters (POLITICO calculated in December apportionment changes based off current trends). Census officials at a Tuesday conference hosted by Georgetown University and the Poynter Institute for journalism fretted that misinformation campaigns and concerns about data confidentiality could discourage people from responding. And voting rights activists have said the Trump administration's plan to add a question on citizenship will scare off some respondents. The Supreme Court will hear a challenge to that question. Al Fontenot, the associate director for decennial census programs, said he was "optimistic" the court will decide the case before the
 printing deadline and that the bureau is "prepared" no matter how the court rules. The Census Bureau said it will undertake a half-billion-dollar public campaign and partnership program to encourage people to respond and to counter bad actors, including those on social media.

Some key dates for House apportionment: The data for House apportionment (in which states gain or lose seats) will be provided to the president by the end of 2020. Data that individual states use for redistricting will begin to publish on Feb. 18, 2021, and the new maps will be in place for the 2022 elections.

Watch LIVE today as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation and the Secretary's Office of Global Women's Issues at the State Department come together for the 9th annual International Women's Day Forum. As part of the day's programming, Anna Palmer co-author of POLITICO's Playbook, will lead a fireside chat with actress, singer, dancer and activist Keke Palmer (no relationship with the Playbook co-author), who has dedicated her life to philanthropy and activism for young girls.
          IN THE TRENCHES         
PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD - Bloomberg is out. "I believe I would defeat Donald Trump in a general election," he wrote in a Bloomberg Opinion column. "But I am clear-eyed about the difficulty of winning the Democratic nomination in such a crowded field." He wrote that he will support several issues important to him, including a "Beyond Carbon" campaign to push America to clean energy, as well as gun control. He also wrote he "will continue supporting candidates who can provide the leadership we need." POLITICO's Marc Caputo has more.

- Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) is also passing on a presidential bid. "I believe that there are Democrats now in the presidential race who are speaking into the importance of tackling the big challenges we face," he said in a video announcing he'll seek reelection next year instead. "But what I'm also sure of is that right now, the Senate is not prepared to be a full partner in this fight."

- Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) signed a pledge promising to run and serve as a Democrat, per The Washington Post's John Wagner and David Weigel.

- A break from the field: Washington Gov. Jay Inslee told the AP's Alexandra Jaffe that he won't disavow the super PAC because he won't condemn anyone fighting climate change.

SENATE RECRUITMENT WATCH - Gallego hasn't entered the Arizona Senate race, but he is criticizing Mark Kelly - who has said he won't accept corporate PAC money in his campaign - for, in his post-NASA career, giving speeches to corporate entities, sometimes with his twin brother Scott. Gallego, who has accepted $763,000 in money from corporate PACs in his career, told The Intercept's Akela Lacy he will make a decision on a Senate bid by the end of March.

- Could Tillis' plan to vote against the president's national emergency declaration stoke a primary challenge? "We're not happy with the way Sen. Tillis seems not to support the president," Diane Parnell, chairwoman of the Rockingham County Republican Party, told The News & Observer's Brian Murphy. "We're looking to see who is coming to primary him."

- Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams is still deciding if she'll run for the Senate (or president, or have another go at governor) and will decide by late March or early April, The New York Times' Susan Chira reported. 

CONVENTION SPOTTING - With the Democratic National Convention host city still undecided, tempers are flaring. "We were told this would happen in January, and it's March and we still don't know where the convention is going to be," Philip Levine, the co-chair of Miami's bid, told Marc. More: "The longer the delay, the longer it takes to raise the needed money to secure sponsors and line up vendors for the convention, Levine said."

H.R. 1 MOVING ALONG - House Democrats' electoral and ethics reform bill cleared the Rules Committee Tuesday night. Seventy-two amendments will be presented on the House floor this week. Debate is expected to stretch two days, with a final passage vote likely on Friday. The White House has threatened to veto the bill (which is exceedingly unlikely to pass the Senate anyway).

THE CALENDAR - Washington looks primed to move up its primary. The state legislature voted this week to move it from late May to the second Tuesday in March, the Seattle Times' David Gutman reported. Tara Lee, a spokesperson for Gov. Jay Inslee, told Score on Tuesday that "neither the governor nor staff have spoken to legislators about the bill, but as it stands we don't have concerns." She didn't explicitly say if he'll sign it.

OH WELD - Since former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld announced his exploratory committee to challenge Trump last month, he's all but disappeared. "Aside from a few television hits and public appearances, the former Massachusetts governor has done little to suggest his primary election challenge to Trump is something the president needs to worry about," POLITICO's Stephanie Murray reported.

PAC ATTACK - The National Legal and Policy Center, a conservative watchdog, is questioning the legality of PACs founded by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's chief of staff, Saikat Chakrabarti, paying $1 million to private companies owned by him, the Washington Examiner's Alana Goodman reported. "None of that makes any sense," Adav Noti, a senior director of the Campaign Legal Center, told Goodman of the payments. "They're either confused or they're trying to conceal something." Common Cause's Paul Ryan takes a different view, writing that if the private companies operated as described, "I don't see anything strange or fishy."

FIRST IN SCORE - STAFFING UP - A trio of new moves: Rufus Gifford is joining the board of Priorities USA. Gifford was former President Barack Obama's national finance director in 2012 and the former ambassador to Denmark.

- David Kanevsky, a NRSC and McCain '08 alum, will be the vice president of political affairs at the Republican State Leadership Committee.

- ACRONYM, the progressive political organization, has three new hires: Kim Peyser, an alum of When We All Vote, as chief of staff to the CEO, and Tatenda Musapatike (Facebook alum) and Audra Grassia (EMILY's List, Clinton 2016 and DGA alum) as senior directors of campaigns.

VOTING SECURITY - Election officials across the country are looking to replace aging voting systems. In 37 states, they will "plan to purchase new voting equipment in the near future," according to a new Brennan Center report. Election officials and experts also said more funding is needed to better secure election systems.

CODA - FACT OF THE DAY: As of Tuesday, Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) has the longest tenure served in Congress for any Republican, per Bloomberg Government's Greg Giroux.
    
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