Subject: What does the surprising cyclical stock surge mean?
From: "Zacks Investment Management" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 09 Mar 2019 07:03:21 -0600
List-Id: <7296740.xt.local>

Mitch sees a larger lesson in the recent outperformance of cyclical stocks 

Cyclical Stocks Surge – A Good Sign for This Bull Market?
The S&P 500 spent a single day in bear market territory on Christmas Eve, but since then the index has rewarded investors who didn’t panic. As I write this column, the S&P 500 has steadily rallied over +18% 1 off the bottom, and one category, in particular, has exhibited strong, noteworthy gains: cyclical stocks.2

Here’s what the data tells us. As you can see from the chart below, Industrials (IYJ), Financials (IYF), and Energy (IYE) have all outperformed the broad S&P 500 since the low on Christmas Eve. The Industrials sector is on pace to outperform the S&P 500 on a quarterly basis for the first time in over 5 years:

Cyclicals have outperformed the S&P 500 during the rally

Closing Price (Index) Data from 12/24/18 to 03/04/1, Source: Yahoo Finance

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Additional Data You Need to Keep an Eye On! 

In addition to data surrounding cyclical stocks, there are other economic indicators, data releases, earnings reports, and factors you should watch. To help you do this, we are offering all readers a look into our just-released March 2019 Stock Market Outlook report.

This report will provide you with our forecasts along with additional factors to consider:

	- Will 2019 stay bullish?
	- Zacks global markets’ outlook
	- What sectors show the best opportunity?
	- What industries within those sectors most merit your attention?
	- Forecast for the S&P
	- Small-cap vs. large-cap returns
	- And much more.
If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today!

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Why does this matter?

From a macro standpoint, cyclical stocks have historically been a useful gauge of investor confidence in the U.S. economy. Cyclicals tend to outperform early in economic cycles when investors are confident about the U.S. rebounding out of a recession and into a fresh growth cycle. Small-cap stocks also tend to outperform in this phase, for the same reasons.

But as economic cycles wear on and get ‘old,’ cyclicals often underperform as profitability wanes and growth rates slow. That’s technically where we’re supposed to be in this economic cycle - currently in its 10th year, with a recession “just around the corner.” But cyclical stocks appear to be telling us a different story.4

Investors may have been reassured by the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate increases, strong data in the labor market, and maybe some tailwinds from strong bank earnings and steady lending activity posted in Q4. Even if growth slows down as expected in 2019, cyclicals’ outperformance may be telling us that the chances of a recession this year are low. A good sign.

But in my opinion, there is a more important investment takeaway from this story.

Here it is: While tracking cyclicals may offer investors and market watchers some macro guidance, I would argue that when it comes to portfolio construction, investors would be better served determining their cyclical and non-cyclical exposure by focusing on individual company earnings – not on the macro environment.

In other words, I believe stock selection matters more than top-down decision making.

The idea that we should own cyclical stocks early in an economic cycle and then switch to a non-cyclical bias late in a cycle doesn’t hold water, in my view. At Zacks Investment Management, we want to buy and own companies that are consistently printing upward earnings estimates and/or have attractive valuations, as opposed to trying to time where we are in the business cycle. If you own quality and you own companies that grow earnings, that to me will add more value over time than shifting between sector and style based on timing the business cycle.

Bottom Line for Investors

If a cyclical stock is growing earnings and revising earnings higher on a consistent basis, my view is that it will do well no matter what ‘inning’ of the business cycle we’re in. The same applies to non-cyclical stocks or really any other equity category, in my view.

Macroeconomics matter, of course – knowing economic fundamentals can help an investor determine the earnings outlook for a particular sector or region, which may play directly into setting expectations for corporate bottom lines. But at the end of the day, the bottom line for investors is that it matters more, in my opinion, to construct a portfolio on a company-by-company basis based on bottom-up analysis of earnings and other fundamentals. That’s the approach that we find has worked for us here at Zacks Investment Management since the beginning.

To give you an inside look into these and other fundamentals, check out our exclusive 
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March 2019 Stock Market Outlook report.

This Special Report is packed with newly revised predictions that can help you base your next investment move on hard data. For example, you'll discover Zacks’ view on:

	- Will 2019 stay bullish?
	- Zacks global markets’ outlook
	- What sectors show the best opportunity?
	- What industries within those sectors most merit your attention?
	- Forecast for the S&P
	- Small-cap vs. large-cap returns
	- And much more.
If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today!

https://cl.S7.exct.net/?qs=dd7ea328d52770e2f4b16e5e20983664ee65b9a9ec01846ffd0247e55d3b442dd8ef78d63e46f2d0464e430d62392c46ed0ae1f65597951d 
FREE Download – Zacks' March 2019 Stock Market Outlook 5 >>
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1
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Yahoo Finance, March 6, 2019 

2
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The Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2019 

3 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free Stock Market Outlook offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

4
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The Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2019 

5 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free Stock Market Outlook offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion.

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