Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Pollsters fret about being potential debate gatekeepers as Dem field expands — FEC hits pro-Jeb super PAC with massive fine — Dems heading to Milwaukee for 2020 convention
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 12 Mar 2019 08:02:56 -0600
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03/12/2019 10:00 AM EDT
        
By ZACH MONTELLARO ([email-masked]; @ZachMontellaro)

        
Editor's Note: This edition of Morning Score is published weekdays at 10 a.m. POLITICO Pro Campaign subscribers hold exclusive early access to the newsletter each morning at 6 a.m. To learn more about POLITICO Pro's comprehensive policy intelligence coverage, policy tools and services, click here.
          QUICK FIX         
- The DNC's low threshold for qualifying in its early primary debates - just 1 percent in three polls from qualifying pollsters - is flummoxing pollsters as the field balloons.

- The FEC handed down its largest fine since the Citizens United ruling, fining a pro-Jeb Bush super PAC and a Chinese-owned corporation close to $1 million over donations the company made.

- Democrats selected Milwaukee to host the 2020 nominating convention, beating out bids from Houston and Miami.

Good Tuesday morning. Email me at [email-masked] or DM me at @ZachMontellaro.

Please welcome Steve Shepard, who is returning to Campaign Pro as our editor. You can email him at [email-masked] or tweet him at @POLITICO_Steve. Scott Bland is helping helm POLITICO's 2020 coverage; please make sure to unfollow him and never email him as retribution for leaving Campaign Pro. Email the rest of the team at [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. Follow them on Twitter: @DanielStrauss4, @JamesArkin and @lbarronlopez.

Days until the NC-09 primary election: 63

Days until the Kentucky and Mississippi general elections: 238

Days until the 2020 election: 602
          THE TOPLINES         
POLLS POLLS POLLS - Pollsters are worried that they could be overwhelmed by the number of Democrats considering a run for the White House, but feel obligated to include as many candidates as possible thanks to the DNC's qualification standards for who gets on the early debate stages.

"[T]he Democratic National Committee set a low, 1 percent polling threshold to gain admittance into the party's first primary debates," Steve reported. "Pollsters say the criteria also put them in a no-win situation: A pollster's decision about whether to include a candidate or not could be a make-or-break choice for that campaign, especially the lesser-known and first-time White House hopefuls hoping to make the debate stage."

"The main thing standing between a candidate registering 1 percent and zero percent in any particular poll is each pollster's decision of whom to include," Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said. "This places an undue editorial burden on public polling outfits."

The worrying comes after Monmouth released a national poll Monday in which 23 potential candidates were listed (three have dropped out, highlighting the fluidity of the field). Former Vice President Joe Biden led with 28 percent, followed by 25 percent for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and 10 percent for Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.). Eight other candidates still running cleared the 1 percent threshold. 

According to an analysis from Campaign Pro, seven Democrats appeared to have qualified so far, having passed the 1 percent threshold in at least three polls: Biden, former Rep. Beto O'Rourke and Sens. Cory Booker, Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). A DNC official told Score that it wouldn't comment on individual candidates and will just make one announcement about the slate of candidates who will participate.

- Speaking of thresholds: Andrew Yang tweeted that he had crossed 65,000 individual donations, another threshold for making it up on the stage. 

Milken Institute Global Conference: Ben White will once again bring POLITICO's Morning Money newsletter to the Milken Institute Global Conference from April 28 through May 2. The special edition newsletter will detail highlights, major conversations, evening festivities and VIP gatherings throughout the conference. Sign up today to receive exclusive, in-depth coverage from the scene of #MIGlobal.
          IN THE TRENCHES         
PRESIDENTIAL BIG BOARD - O'Rourke is beginning to staff up in Iowa. Norm Sterzenbach, a former executive director of the Iowa Democratic Party, "is assisting O'Rourke in the state and was reviewing resumes from potential staffers as recently as last week," POLITICO's David Siders, Daniel Strauss, Christopher Cadelago and Natasha Korecki wrote. They report that Paul Tewes, who ran Obama's 2008 state operation, and Margaret Jarosz, who was on the ground for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) when he was considering a run, were also helping. CNN's Rebecca Buck and Eric Bradner also reported that he's been eyeing a visit to the state that could come as early as this weekend.

- Sanders will have two campaign headquarters - one in Burlington, Vt., and one in D.C., POLITICO's Holly Otterbein reported.

- Booker's comms team is growing, with EMILY's List alum Julie McClain Downey as national director of state communications, Sabrina Singh as national press secretary and more, per CNN's Buck.

- Now on the endorsement tracker: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (TX-15), who is backing Julian Castro, per The Dallas Morning News' Tom Benning. Gonzalez is the third House member to endorse his fellow Texan.

- Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) defended her office's investigation into an allegation of sexual harassment against a staffer following reporting by POLITICO's Alex Thompson.

- Warren will get a CNN town hall on Monday in Mississippi, per CNN's Kate Sullivan.

MEGA-FINE - The FEC leveled a massive fine to the super PAC that supported Jeb Bush in 2016 and a Chinese-owned corporation that donated to it. "The unusually large FEC fines came after the commission found evidence Bush's super PAC took money from a foreign national, which is prohibited under federal election law," POLITICO's Maggie Severns reported. "The super PAC, Right to Rise, was fined $390,000 for the violation, while the FEC gave an additional $550,000 fine to American Pacific International Capital, Inc." The findings were based off a complaint made in August 2016 by the Campaign Legal Center, and the FEC did not find that the donations were "knowing and willful violations" of the
 law.

Charlie Spies, the PAC's lawyer, told Mother Jones' Nihal Krishan (who broke the news) that "Right to Rise conciliated this matter to avoid costly litigation and appreciates the commission's recognition of its extensive compliance efforts," while Neil Bush (who solicited the donations) told Krishan that "I believed that my actions were both lawful and consistent with the legal advice that I sought."

CONVENTION SPOTTING - The 2020 Democratic convention is headed to Milwaukee, POLITICO's Natasha Korecki and Alex Thompson reported. The Midwestern city beat out bids from Houston and Miami, and the convention will be July 13-16. Here's more from The Wall Street Journal's Ken Thomas, who broke the news: "Recapturing [Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan], and reconnecting with the blue-collar voters in the region who embraced the president, have been among the Democrats' top challenges entering 2020. Wisconsin was one of the party's biggest success stories in the 2018 midterm elections, sending Tony Evers to the governor's mansion and re-electing Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin."

WEB WARS - Facebook initially deleted three ads from Warren on its platform that called for the breakup of Facebook and other big tech companies, POLITICO's Cristiano Lima reported. The company later backtracked. "We removed the ads because they violated our policies against use of our corporate logo," a Facebook spokesperson told Cristiano. "In the interest of allowing robust debate, we are restoring the ads."

 - The super PAC supporting Washington Gov. Jay Inslee outspent most 2020 contenders on Facebook ad spending last week. Act Now on Climate dropped $98,000 on the platform from March 3-9 - more than Inslee's own campaign, which spent $63,000. Here's more for Pros from my weekly Facebook ad archive roundup.

NC-09, FOREVER - Three candidates filed on Monday to run in NC-09: Republicans Stony Rushing (who Mark Harris endorsed) and Fern Shubert and Libertarian Jeff Scott, who was on the ballot in the original election. The filing deadline is Friday.

THE NEXT STOP - "The Breakfast Club," the morning radio show hosted by Charlamagne tha God, DJ Envy and Angela Yee, has become a must-stop for Democratic hopefuls, hosting the likes of Harris, Booker and Sanders with more on the way. The Daily Beast's Maxwell Tani and Gideon Resnick talked to Charlamagne and others involved with the show about its new role. 

SITTING OUT - Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said she won't endorse any Democratic presidential hopeful ahead of the primary because she's focusing on her own reelection, per WCAX's Adam Sullivan.

TECH TALK - The National Association of Secretaries of State is asking Facebook and Twitter to stop directing users to the nonprofit TurboVote for voter registration because it "occasionally failed to properly process registrations," ProPublica's Jessica Huseman reported.

THE SENATE MAP - Stacey Abrams, who's being courted by Democratic bigwigs to challenge Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.), said "2028 would be the earliest" she could see herself running for president in an interview at SXSW, per Campaign Pro's James Arkin. Afterward, Abrams walked that back, saying "2020 is definitely on the table," while her former campaign manager tweeted she was referencing a "years-old spreadsheet" when she mentioned 2028.

- The Club for Growth is attacking former Republican Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam with a web ad as he considers a run for Senate, via the AP.

CODA - HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Do California politicians' yearbooks harbor secrets? Nah. But dorkiness?" from The Mercury News.
    
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