Subject: The Brief, powered by Google: Brussels’ Balkans balancing act
From: EurActiv <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2017 16:10:23 +0000

The Brief, powered by Google: Brussels’ Balkans balancing act     
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    <http://eurac.tv/78rc?sid=33541>    Today's EU policy news,
13.03.2017, 5PM

       = Brussels’ Balkans balancing act =

      === By James Crisp and Sam Morgan ===

 The European Union must perform a delicate balancing act as it seeks to
win the tug of love over the Western Balkans with Moscow and Ankara.

 The region risks  becoming the battlefield
<http://eurac.tv/78qh?sid=33541> of a war of influence. There are doubts
about US commitment to the region after the election of Donald Trump, and
Russia and Turkey are moving to fill the gap.

 Fears over “third country interference” in the region led EU leaders
last week to declare their “unequivocal support for the European
perspective of  the Western Balkans <http://eurac.tv/78qi?sid=33541>”.

 Sound familiar? The conclusions of the 2003 EU-Western Balkans summit read
14 years ago, “The EU reiterates its unequivocal support to the European
perspective of the Western Balkan countries.”

 But EU support comes with strings attached,  such as reforms
<http://eurac.tv/78qj?sid=33541>, and with mixed messages.

 Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn has said the EU “will never be
complete <http://eurac.tv/78qk?sid=33541>” without the Balkans.
Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has vowed there will be  no more
enlargement <http://eurac.tv/78ql?sid=33541> during his term in office,
which expires in 2019.

 There was no mention of enlargement in the executive’s White Paper on
the future of the EU.

 Talk of EU enlargement is the last thing the leaders of some member states
 want to hear <http://eurac.tv/78qm?sid=33541>. The Dutch have already
rejected the  EU-Ukraine Association Agreement
<http://eurac.tv/78qn?sid=33541>.

 It will be difficult to get a Balkan candidate country’s accession
ratified across the EU. With crunch elections  in the Netherlands
<http://eurac.tv/78qo?sid=33541>, France and Germany to come this year, the
prospect of low-paid workers migrating to richer EU states would be a gift
to the Eurosceptic right.

 What can the bloc offer instead of enlargement? EU funding and programmes
offer some lean-in against Russian and Turkish influence but are difficult
to communicate well.

  A recent poll <http://eurac.tv/78qp?sid=33541> said Serbians are more
likely to think Russia is the country’s biggest donor, despite the EU
providing around €3bn in aid since 2000. MEPs will vote in April to
demand more from Belgrade, after its foreign policy rapidly diverged from
the EU’s.

 Issues such as the Kosovo-Montenegro border dispute stand in the way of
milestones like visa liberalisation for Pristina. But they also may be an
obstacle for the NATO accession of Podgorica.

 There is scope for the EU to be more political, as with the 2004 and 2007
enlargement, especially as dormant tensions across the Balkans are showing 
signs of stirring <http://eurac.tv/78qq?sid=33541>.

 So far, it has shown little appetite to do so, and fuelled anti-EU 
sentiment among Kosovars <http://eurac.tv/78qr?sid=33541>.

 Western Balkans (and Ukrainian) politicians
<http://eurac.tv/78qs?sid=33541> need to be able to dangle the prospect of
future prosperity as part of the EU  to their voters
<http://eurac.tv/78qt?sid=33541>.

 If they can’t convincingly point to that long-term perspective, why
resist the overtures of other countries offering support with seemingly
fewer conditions attached?

      == The Roundup ==

 Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed she will seek permission for a second 
Scottish independence referendum <http://eurac.tv/78qu?sid=33541> in 2018
or 2019. She said Brexit is not just about Scotland’s relationship with
Europe but what “kind of country <http://eurac.tv/78qv?sid=33541> we
will become”.

 Meanwhile, Theresa May is expected to  formally trigger Brexit
<http://eurac.tv/78qw?sid=33541> this week. A leaked report from the UK
Treasury has warned of a painful economic shock if Britain crashes out of
the EU without  a Brexit deal <http://eurac.tv/78qx?sid=33541>. UK Brexit
chief David Davis said yesterday the government was  preparing contingency
plans <http://eurac.tv/78qy?sid=33541>.

 Odd couple Donald Trump and Angela Merkel  will meet tomorrow
<http://eurac.tv/78qz?sid=33541>. Will he try and hold her hand? Will he
ask the East German for advice on his wall? Could this be the biggest clash
of style and substance ever seen between two leaders?

 Poland will pursue a “negative” policy
<http://eurac.tv/78qA?sid=33541> towards Brussels after it failed to block
the reappointment of Donald Tusk as Council head. Tusk has been summoned
for questioning <http://eurac.tv/78qC?sid=33541> in Poland regarding a
case dating back to 2010 but will be unable to attend due to Parliament
commitments.

 French presidential candidate Benoît Hamon has dismissed the idea of
multi-speed Europe as mere "blabla" <http://eurac.tv/78qD?sid=33541> and
has pledged to undertake substantial reform, particularly in eurozone
governance.

 An electricity market dispute <http://eurac.tv/78qE?sid=33541> on the
German-Austrian border has thrown the design of the EU’s internal energy
market into doubt.

 Russian giant Gazprom has loosened its grip on Central and Eastern
European gas markets. It has agreed not to seek any damages from its
Bulgarian partners following the termination  of South Stream
<http://eurac.tv/78s8?sid=33541>.

 Member states have moved to weaken EU  energy efficiency targets
<http://eurac.tv/78ul?sid=33541> for 2030.

 Norwegian officials are reportedly lobbying against European Parliament
calls to ban offshore drilling <http://eurac.tv/78qF?sid=33541> in the
Arctic, while the EU announced €40
<http://eurac.tv/78qG?sid=33541> million for Algerian renewable energy
projects. If Wales were a member state it would place 4th
<http://eurac.tv/78qH?sid=33541> in terms of sticking to recycling
targets.

 Turkish-Dutch relations have nearly collapsed after the latter
barred ministers from campaigning <http://eurac.tv/78qG?sid=33541> in
Rotterdam. Turkish President Erdogan again played the Nazi card. The
European Commission today said this was a part of European history that
“needs to be forgotten”.

 Martin Schulz has been dubbed  a “sexy beast”
<http://eurac.tv/78qI?sid=33541> in Germany. Can  this be true
<http://eurac.tv/78qJ?sid=33541>?

 What better way to celebrate 60 years of the EU than running  a GIF
competition? <http://eurac.tv/78qK?sid=33541> And congratulations to all
involved in the Brussels press revue.

      == Look out for… ==

 The European Court of Justice  will rule tomorrow
<http://eurac.tv/78qL?sid=33541> on the rights of Muslim women to wear the
headscarf in the workplace.  Judges will decide if banning the  headscarf
is discrimination <http://eurac.tv/78qM?sid=33541> under EU law.

 *Views are the authors', not our sponsor's.*

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