Subject: [big campaign] McCain/the age card
From: "Adam Bink" <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Wed, 14 May 2008 15:42:43 -0400
List-Id: <bigcampaign.googlegroups.com>

Chris Bowers over at our blog, OpenLeft, has an interesting take on the
possible backlash from playing the "age card" against McCain.

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5768
Playing The Age Card
<http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5768>
(+)<http://www.openleft.com/hotList.do?diaryId=5768> by:
Chris Bowers <http://www.openleft.com/userDiary.do?personId=9> *Wed May 14,
2008 at 14:44* *IP Address: 205.166.253.94*
If you thought the nomination campaign was too steeped in identity politics,
don't expect the general election to be any better. We have already seen
race and gender make divisive forays into the national political discourse,
and now age is entering the campaign, stage right.

In the two days before the New Hampshire primary, Hillary Clinton was
pilloried the media, in very gender specific terms, for showing emotion
while speaking to a group of women. Then, on January 8th, women voted for
Clinton in record numbers, rebuking that identity-based attack.

Back in 2007, before Obama was the target of several racially tinged
attacks, he ran roughly even with Hillary Clinton among women. However, over
the last five months, as Obama has been attacked as a supposed Muslim, a
supposed drug dealer, a supposed "uppity" figure, and as just another angry
black dude for his association with his pastor, African-Americans have
flocked to Obama. The result of these racially tinged attacks is that
Obama's overwhelming support among African-Americans has pushed him over the
top in the Democratic nomination campaign.

Age-based attacks on John McCain have much the same potential for backlash
as gender-based attacks on Hillary Clinton, and racially based attacks on
Barack Obama. Now that McCain's age has become a national punchline, many
seniors might back McCain simply because they take offense at that
narrative. This is particularly dangerous in a general election campaign
when seniors will be the main swing group. Even though the electoral
effectiveness of the conservative backlash narratives against liberal elites
and the civil rights movement have been seriously diminished by changing
demographics <http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5189>, these
narratives are still somewhat salient among seniors. Combining these
conservative backlash narratives with an additional, age-based backlash
could prove problematic for Obama.

Now, this problem might be hard to see, since Obama currently leads McCain
according to thirteen of sixteen public polling
firms<http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Pres-GE-MvO.php>that have
published national surveys in the last month. Overall, he leads
McCain by (3.7% in Pollster
<http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Pres-GE-MvO.php>and 4.8%
in Real Clear Politics<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls>).
However, as strong as Obama is currently performing, he could be doing much
better if he were to solidify the Democratic base. Obama leads by about 4%
right now, despite only receiving between 65% and 75% of self-identified
support according to the latest Rasmussen,
Quinnipiac<http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1177>,
and the latest LA Times /
Bloomberg<http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/may%209%20poll.pdf>polls
respectively. If Obama were to push his Democratic support up to 85%,
then he would gain another 4% against McCain, and deliver a virtual knockout
blow.

However, an age-based identity backlash could prevent Obama from delivering
this knockout blow. Today's Q-poll showed an 11-point age gap between voters
younger and older than 45, and the LA Times poll showed a 20-point gap, both
of which successfully keep Obama's numbers low among self-identified
Democrats. As such, it isn't surprising that the McCain camp is already
angling to create further problems for Obama among seniors by playing the
age card<http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5itzEFe8o5QDV0EFCZG6ZJDbJwdLQD90HQJSG2>:

The McCain campaign said Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois who leads
Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, was
hinting at something when he used the words "losing his bearings."

It was "a not particularly clever way of raising John McCain's age as an
issue," said Mark Salter, a McCain adviser, in an e-mailed statement.

Expect more of this. The massive Democratic advantage in partisan
self-identification, combined with Obama's strength among independents,
means that McCain needs to peel away a decent amount of Democrats in order
to compete. Having learned lessons from the Democratic primary, it appears
his campaign has decided it they can win over self-identified, Democratic
seniors by playing the age card, and creating an identity backlash against a
supposedly "ageist" Obama campaign. Current polling indicates that this
strategy might just be working, since the only reason McCain is still within
striking distance of Obama, instead of being blown out of the water, is
because Obama has not locked down older, self-identified Democrats. McCain
will continue to do whatever he can to open this wedge further, because as
soon as it disappears, the general election could turn into a blowout.

-- 
Adam Bink
Online Strategy Manager
Progressive Strategies, L.L.C.
Check out our new blog www.OpenLeft.com

--~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~
You received this message because you are subscribed to the "big campaign" group.

To post to this group, send to [email-masked]

To unsubscribe, send email to [email-masked]

E-mail [email-masked] with questions or concerns
 
This is a list of individuals. It is not affiliated with any group or organization.
-~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---