Subject: [big campaign] Former Petraeus Advisor Contradicts McCain on the Surge
From: Adam Blickstein <[email-masked]>
To: "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 23 Jul 2008 18:17:27 -0400
List-Id: <bigcampaign.googlegroups.com>

NSN Fact Check: Former Petraeus Advisor Contradicts McCain on the Surge

Sen. John McCain's top spokesman, Tucker Bounds, today stated that in regard to his accounting of the surge, "Senator McCain is correct'' and that "as General Petraeus has made clear, the surge is the reason why the Anbar Awakening was so successful in tearing up al Qaeda." Unfortunately, the McCain campaign again has misstated the facts and the real military history in regards to the surge. Even counter-insurgency expert Dave Kilcullen, who advised David Petraeus during the surge, refutes<http://attackerman.firedoglake.com/2008/07/23/kilcullenmccain/> this claim from a piece written on August 29, 2007<http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=i8fzspcab.0.0.olnitxbab.0&p=http%3A%2F%2Fsmallwarsjournal.com%2Fblog%2F2007%2F08%2Fanatomy-of-a-tribal-revolt%2F&id=preview>:
"The uprising began last year [2006], far out in western Anbar province, but is now affecting about 40% of the country. It has spread to Ninewa, Diyala, Babil, Salah-ad-Din, Baghdad and - intriguingly - is filtering into Shi'a communities in the South. The Iraqi government was in on it from the start; our Iraqi intelligence colleagues predicted, well before we realized it, that Anbar was going to "flip", with tribal leaders turning toward the government and away from extremists."
In other words, Kilcullen was asserting that months before the surge was announced, Iraqi intelligence and the Iraqi government knew that this was happening, completely disproving the point that this was occuring because of the surge. Contrary to what the McCain campaign claims, the Anbar Awakening began long before the surge itself began. Col. MacFarland's 2008 piece<http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=i8fzspcab.0.0.olnitxbab.0&p=http%3A%2F%2Fusacac.leavenworth.army.mil%2FCAC%2Fmilreview%2FEnglish%2FMarApr08%2FSmith_AnbarEngMarApr08.pdf&id=preview>, referenced below, covers the period from June 2006 to early February 2007, when MacFarland and his forces left Anbar.  The surge began in late January/Early February 2007, long after the Anbar Awakening began. In fact, Col. MacFarland who McCain referenced while defending the surge's impact on the Awakening, doesn't even mention<http://www.democracyarsenal.org/2008/07/getting-the-his.html> the surge itself or troop increases when discussing the reduction of violece in Anbar:
"As mentioned before, the enemy overplayed its hand and the people were tired of Al-Qaeda. A series of assassinations had elevated younger, more aggressive tribal leaders to positions of influence. A growing concern that the U.S. would leave Iraq and leave the Sunnis defenseless against Al Qaeda and Iranian-supported militias made those younger leaders open to our overtures Clearly, a combination of factors, some of which we may not yet fully understand, contributed to this pivotal success. As mentioned before, the enemy overplayed its hand and the people were tired of Al Qaeda. A series of assassinations had elevated younger, more aggressive tribal leaders to positions of influence. A. Our willingness to adapt our plan based on the advice of the sheiks, our staunch and timely support for them in times of danger and need, and our ability to deliver on our promises convinced them that they could do business with us."

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