Subject: State of the Race, 100 Days Out
From: Adrienne Elrod <[email-masked]>
To: Adrienne Elrod <[email-masked]>
Cc: Alexandria Phillips <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 2015 18:43:54 -0400
List-Id: <toptalkers.hillaryclinton.com>

*To:* Volunteers and Supporters
*From:* Robby Mook
*RE:* State of the Race, 100 days out
*Date:* October 27, 2015

Hillary Clinton said on the first day of this campaign that we would need
to work hard to earn *every* vote in *every*state to win the Democratic
nomination. Hillary has spent the last six months listening to voters
across the country and offering detailed solutions that will make a real
difference for families, like raising their wages and helping to pay for
college. Meanwhile, you and 73,984 other volunteers have built a campaign
organization capable of securing the Democratic nomination, regardless of
how long the process takes. In every state and territory, volunteers are
talking to friends and neighbors about why Hillary is the tenacious fighter
middle class voters need to help them get ahead.

We started with a plan and stuck to it. We were determined to focus on, and
measure our progress against, the metrics that matter most: recruiting and
training enough volunteers to turn our supporters out to vote; raising the
resources to organize and communicate; and getting our message out. The
result is a strong, durable campaign that is well positioned to capture a
winning number of primary delegates and enter the general election ready to
motivate millions of voters to make Hillary our 45th president.

No candidate in this race has faced greater headwinds, or more scrutiny
than Hillary Clinton. Yet, she stands better positioned today to win the
primary and general election than any other candidate. This is a testament
to Hillary’s determination and your hard work. It’s also proof that
Hillary’s message of fighting for families is resonating with voters
nationwide.

*Emerging from October in a Stronger Position*
The pundits were right: October was a critical month for Hillary and our
campaign. Hillary faced some key tests: the first debate, the partisan
hearing on Benghazi and the JJ Dinner in Iowa. Skeptics and supporters
alike agree: Hillary passed every test with flying colors.

   - *Debate.* In the first Democratic debate, Hillary won not only in the
   headlines (Politico: “Hillary Crushes It”), but also with voters by showing
   that she is the only candidate with the tenacity and vision to even the
   odds for families. The vast majority of polls showed her winning the debate
   with voters by a 2:1 margin.
   - *Benghazi Hearing.* Kevin McCarthy told the truth: Republicans
   established the Benghazi committee to hurt Hillary in the polls. They spent
   more than $4 million in taxpayer money doing it. Despite having already
   testified before multiple Senate and House congressional committees
   examining the issue, Hillary wanted to honor the service of the four
   Americans killed in the line of duty and contribute in any way she could to
   learning important lessons for the future. She spent 11 hours diligently
   answering all of the Select Committee’s questions. Reporters and pundits
   overwhelmingly agreed that she emerged from the hearing looking prepared,
   poised, and presidential.
   - *JJ Dinner.* The JJ Dinner wasn’t just a test of Hillary’s message, it
   was also a test of her organizational strength. It was an opportunity for
   the campaign to showcase how the investments we’ve made in building a
   volunteer infrastructure will help us to win the Iowa caucuses. Multiple
   news reports highlighted how Hillary’s pre-dinner rally was by far the
   largest of any candidate, and her organizing advantage continued at the
   dinner itself. As CBS News reported “it was a spectacle that projected
   the strength of her campaign’s organization, which was unmatched by the
   other campaigns in the room Saturday night.”
   <http://links.hillaryclinton.com/ctt?kn=1&ms=MjM4NDk3NDQS1&r=MTU5NjAzNjc5MTIxS0&b=0&j=NjYyNzg0NDgxS0&mt=1&rt=0>

*Building a Winning Organization*
We said at the beginning of this campaign that we needed to raise $100
million this year to make early, strategic investments in data, technology,
and personnel to build a winning organization. We are well on track to meet
this goal and, despite making significant investments, we still have
significantly more cash on hand than any other campaign and three times as
much as Jeb Bush.

We are on track to meet our $100 million goal, largely because of our
grassroots donors. Hillary for America has built one of the largest donors
bases of any candidate, larger than the Obama campaign had at roughly the
same point in 2007. Our average donation is small (92% of our donations
were $100 or less) and our donor base is making history: more than 60% of
our donors are women.

*Investment: Mobilization*
No campaign—on either side—has made a bigger investment in grassroots
organizing than Hillary for America. We have hundreds of organizers in key
states and 33 offices in the early states alone. Our goal has been to build
a field operation that can compete everywhere—including deep into the
primary—and win close races. We continue to have the largest organizing
presence in Iowa and New Hampshire and, until September, we were the only
Democratic campaign operating in Nevada. We have been active in every other
state and territory since April, with a special focus on March states, when
almost 60% of the delegates will be chosen. Other campaigns are unlikely to
have the time or resources to catch up.

It is also worth remembering that these early investments matter for the
general election, too: three of the four early states are likely to be
contested next November. Most Republicans are foregoing the ground game
completely and instead relying on television advertising from Super PACs to
buoy their campaigns. As a point of comparison, with a total of 38
organizers and 8 offices, Jeb boasts the largest organization of any
Republican candidate in the early states—a small fraction of the
organization we’ve built.

*Investment: Communicating with Voters*
We made a strategic decision to be up on TV earlier and at higher levels
than anyone else. This has allowed us to communicate our message before the
airwaves get cluttered and at lower rates. Bernie Sanders’ chief strategist
has acknowledged that this decision is paying dividends for us.

Similarly, the investments in data and analytics gives us an edge now in
helping us identify and target voters that are receptive to our message.
This also means that all of our communication—at the door, in the mail, on
TV, etc.—will be more efficient and will save the campaign money in the
long run.

*Investment: Political Outreach*
In keeping with our strategy to fight for every single vote, we have made
it a priority to engage voters directly, as well as seek support among
institutions, elected officials, community leaders and superdelegates.

*Unions*
With AFSCME’s endorsement on Friday, we have the support of 10 national
labor unions, including AFT and NEA, which constitute a nationwide network
of teachers in virtually every state and county in the country.
Collectively, these unions represent more than 8 million voters. We also
now have support from more than a third of the AFL-CIO’s member unions.
Since an endorsement from the AFL-CIO requires a two-thirds vote, Hillary
Clinton is effectively the only candidate positioned to seek a federation
endorsement.

*Leadership Councils*
Hillary for America has built Leadership Councils in seven states that vote
in early March: Colorado, Georgia, Maine, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee
and Virginia. These councils are comprised of elected officials, community,
coalition and grassroots leaders. These leaders will amplify the campaign’s
message and outreach, helping to build the organization through grassroots
events, volunteer recruitment and Get Out the Vote/Caucus activities. More
councils will be announced in the coming weeks.

Last week, more than 50 African American mayors endorsed Hillary. The
mayors represent a range of large and small cities across the country and
will be joined in the coming days by additional mayors from across the
country.

*Superdelegates*
There are 712 total superdelegates in the Democratic nomination process and
Hillary has enjoyed historical levels of support from them. Today, Hillary
has more support from superdelegates than all the pledged delegates awarded
in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and a third of delegates
awarded on Super Tuesday combined.

*Polling*
In addition to our organizational and political strength, no candidate
stands in a better position with the actual voters who will decide the
election. According to public polls (pollster.com):

   - Hillary’s favorability with Democratic voters has remained sky high
   (close to 80%). In fact, she has a higher favorability rating among primary
   voters than any Democratic candidate, and any Republican candidate does
   with Republican primary voters.
   - On average, she has a strong double-digit lead of 25 points in
   national polling—more than double her closest opponent.

Of course, we are the first campaign to acknowledge that the primary is not
a national election but a series of state races. Hillary is also strong at
the state level:

   - In Iowa, Hillary has an average lead of nearly 10 points.
   - In New Hampshire, public polls since the presidential debate show a
   tight race including three recent polls that have her leading.
   - In Nevada, South Carolina, and the key March states, Hillary enjoys
   strong double-digit leads. Here are just a few examples from those critical
   states:
      - FL: +39
      - GA: +36
      - MA: +34
      - MI: +13
      - NC: +35
      - NV: +26
      - OH: +19
      - SC: +27
      - TX: +12
      - VA: +17

Underscoring her strength as a candidate, Hillary has tremendous leads of
between 30-40 point with three key groups: women, African-Americans and
Latinos. These voters will not only be decisive in the primary, but will
also play a critical role in determining the president next November.

*More Challenges Ahead*
Although we are proud that Hillary is in such a strong position today, we
have said from the beginning that becoming the first female nominee of a
major party would not be easy. We recognize there are challenges ahead as
we seek to earn every caucus goer and vote.

The Koch Brothers alone have committed almost a billion dollars to tear
down Hillary Clinton and we will continue to depend on our grassroots
supporters to provide us with the resources we need to compete. We started
this campaign with millions fewer emails than President Obama had during
his 2012 re-elect, the first presidential campaign in the Super PAC era. We
will continue to aggressively organize online to build an unprecedented
grassroots list that can help us fight back against the Super PACs.

But our campaign and our candidate have withstood a significant early test
and have emerged in a strong position to win. Just as she did over the
summer, Hillary Clinton will remain focused on the families she’s fighting
for, and her campaign will remain focused on building the kind of
organization it takes to win.
-- 

Adrienne K. Elrod
Director of Strategic Communications & Amplification
Hillary For America
*www.hillaryclinton.com <http://www.hillaryclinton.com>*
@adrienneelrod

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