Subject: Fwd: Q3 outlook
From: "Altman, Roger" <[email-masked]>
To: "Mr. John D. Podesta" <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 22 Jul 2015 14:20:32 +0000

Our head of economic research has been the #1 ranked macro analyst for ten straight years
  This is his take on the very latest data. His comments at the end may be relevant to HRC's Friday speech

Roger C. Altman
Evercore Partners
55 East 52nd Street
New York, NY. 10055
(212) 857-3110 phone
(212) 857-3112 fax

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Hyman, Ed" <[email-masked]<mailto:[email-masked]>>
Date: 22 July 2015 10:12:42 am GMT-4
To: "Altman, Roger" <[email-masked]<mailto:[email-masked]>>
Subject: RE: Q3 outlook

Roger,

Thanks again for coming by Monday evening

Regarding your question:

1.      Foreign economies soft, dollar up, commodity prices down.  Ag capex and energy capex restrained.

2.      US operating rates still below 80.0% level needed to trigger stronger capex.  And if wages are accelerating (I think they are), it’s still early days (so consumer spending is still soft).

3.      Rogoff , “this time is different” still a factor.  That is, after a financial crisis, growth is subdued for a number of years.  Animal spirits are still restrained by muscle memory.  Bank lending is restrained.  Banks are under siege.  Companies do deals, buybacks, and pay dividends rather than hire and invest.  Many deals result in layoffs and other cost cutting.

All this can change, as our friend Howard Marks always points out.

But this is the way it is today.  As a result, views of Fed tightening have been pushed out.  Talk of a dove-hike, ie, a hike in Sep with guidance that it will not be followed by another in Dec.  Some claiming no hike until 2017.

Read one analyst this morning describing you as “jovial” on the call today.

Best regards,

Ed

From: Altman, Roger [mailto:[email-masked]]
Sent: Wednesday, July 22, 2015 9:44 AM
To: Hyman, Ed
Subject: Q3 outlook

  I see that you describe Q3 as getting off to slow start
 How would you rank the 2-3 major factors‎ holding it back?

________________________________

Disclaimer:
The information contained in this email message is intended only for use of the individual or entity named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, or the employee or agent responsible to deliver it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please immediately notify us by email, and destroy the original message.
Thank you.
________________________________

Disclaimer:
http://www.evercore.com/salesandtradingdisclaimer
________________________________

Disclaimer:
http://www.evercore.com/researchdisclaimer

________________________________

The information contained in this email message is intended only for use of the individual or entity named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, or the employee or agent responsible to deliver it to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please immediately notify us by email, and destroy the original message. Thank you