Subject: DNC hits McCain as "Pro-Bush republican" With "Right Wing Baggage"
From: "Andrew Baumann" <[email-masked]>
To: "ic2008" <[email-masked]>, "Ana Iparraguirre" <[email-masked]>, "Bryan Fisher" <[email-masked]>, "John Podesta" <[email-masked]>, "Kristi Fuksa" <[email-masked]>, "Paul Begala" <[email-masked]>, "Stan Greenberg" <[email-masked]>, "Susan McCue" <[email-masked]>, "Tara McGuinness" <[email-masked]>, "Tom Matzzie" <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 9 Jan 2008 16:06:52 -0500

FYI:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/dnc_begins_mccain_b
racketing_p.php#more

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Mike Gehrke 

RE: Is Mac Really Back?

Despite repeating his win in New Hampshire, the John McCain of 2008
emerges much weaker than the John McCain of 2000. His poll ratings may
have rebounded from the levels they were at during the summer, but the
"Do anything to win" strategy that caused them to crash in the first
place is still in place. That strategy and its radioactive results will
continue to dog him in the coming weeks. 

McCain And Republicans Captured Smaller Share Of NH Voters Than 8 Years
Ago.

As just about everybody predicted, John McCain won the New Hampshire
Republican primary last night. But in the process he received fewer
votes than either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, and even among
Republicans his overall victory was less convincing than his 2000
showing. Overall turnout in the open New Hampshire primary increased by
roughly one-third, but McCain actually received fewer votes than he did
in 2000. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, McCain tallied nearly
89,000 votes this year. In 2000, McCain received 115,606 votes - that's
23 percent fewer votes in an overall electorate that increased by more
than 100,000 voters. 

NH Raw Vote Totals 2000-2008
2000 2008
McCain (R) 115,606
Gore (D) 76,897
Bush (R) 72,330
Bradley (D) 70,502
Forbes (R) 30,166
Clinton (D) 112,238
Obama (D) 104,757
McCain (R) 88,447
Romney (R) 75,202
Edwards (D) 48,666

2008 results with 99 percent reporting

Maverick McCain 2000 has Become George W. Bush 2.0

If the comparison is unfair, it is only because the John McCain that
stood on the stage last night is not the same John McCain that won New
Hampshire in 2000. After standing up to the misguided plans and agenda
of George Bush in 2000, and getting soundly and viciously beaten, McCain
entered 2008 trying to be George Bush. On issue after issue he has
tacked far to the right in a bid to become the candidate of the
Republican establishment. The move came at considerable cost to his
principles and his maverick image:

* Maverick McCain called for a limited commitment and even expressed
concerns that the Bush administration's surge strategy was too little
too late. Candidate McCain now stands shoulder to shoulder with the
administration, calls their strategy his own, and while no political
progress is being made, McCain says he would keep our troops in Iraq
permanently.

* Maverick McCain voted against Bush's tax cuts on principles of fiscal
responsibility and middle-class fairness, Candidate McCain voted to
maintain the same Bush tax cuts, and embraced supply side myths while
the deficit ballooned. 

* Maverick McCain condemned the shadowy Republican "Swift Boat" 527,
calling them "desperate and dishonorable." He trashed lobbyists, pork
and called for reform. Candidate McCain in 2007 has welcomed the top
funders of the 527 group and hired many of the strategists responsible
for the ads. Today, his campaign is co-chaired by two Washington
lobbyists and managed by a third.

* Maverick McCain stood up to the far-right wing of his party, calling
Jerry Falwell an "evil influence" in the Republican party, criticizing
George Bush for speaking at Bob Jones University and opposed the NRA in
calling for bans on assault weapons after Columbine. In 2008, McCain
openly courted Rev. Falwell, said he was open to speaking at Bob Jones,
and even after the Virginia Tech massacre, toed the NRA line calling for
no more gun safety laws.

* As John McCain's campaign hit the skids in the summer of 2007, the
conventional wisdom was that it was due to his support of an immigration
bill opposed by the right wing of the Republican Party. In response, he
abandoned his support of the bill, and now denies supporting the amnesty
provisions he previously said was "an important part" of immigration
reform.
McCain loyalists might shout "Mac is Back," but it is only a short time
before people remember why he went away to begin with. As his poll
numbers plummeted in June and July 2007, Time magazine noted that "warm,
fuzzy feelings toward McCain vanished the moment he put on the suit of
the Republican Establishment." [Time, 7/23/07] And even close friends
mourned the change saying "we lost the John McCain I knew." [Washington
Post, 6/8/07] 

2007 Flip-Flops Led To Serious Problems With Independent Voters in 2008.

Republican partisans might buy the changes and even be happy with them.
Mainstream pundits with a weak spot for his personal story or prickly
personal style might overlook them. And for now, McCain has the tailwind
of a fresh win and the approval of "his base" in the national press
corps. But exit polls of actual voters show that McCain's reinvention of
2007 has left him with deep lingering problems with independents. 32
percent of the Republican primary electorate were independents in 2000,
and McCain's victory that year was due in large part because he won 61
percent of them. This year, while substantially more independents voted
in the Republican primary, McCain's share of their votes fell to 38
percent. 

McCain's reinvention as a right-wing partisan might convince the
Republican base that they don't have to worry about the Maverick McCain
standing in the way of a radical right wing agenda. However, swing
voters who are looking for the Maverick McCain might be puzzled when
this version of John McCain shows up at their doorstep with his new
baggage in tow. 

 

 

Andrew Baumann

Analyst

10 G Street NE, Suite 500, Washington, DC 20002

Phone: 202 478 8300 / Fax: 202 478 8301

[email-masked] <mailto:[email-masked]>  

www.greenbergresearch.com <http://www.greenbergresearch.com>