Subject: Obaam among seniors
From: "Andrew Baumann" <[email-masked]>
To: "ic2008" <[email-masked]>, "Ana Iparraguirre" <[email-masked]>, "Bryan Fisher" <[email-masked]>, "John Podesta" <[email-masked]>, "Kristi Fuksa" <[email-masked]>, "Paul Begala" <[email-masked]>, "Stan Greenberg" <[email-masked]>, "Susan McCue" <[email-masked]>, "Tara McGuinness" <[email-masked]>, "Tom Matzzie" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 7 Jan 2008 11:50:16 -0500

Some notes on Obama's standing with seniors.  As noted, he does more
poorly among this around in all 3 match-ups, especially against
Giuliani.  We have some very good attacks among seniors for Romney, and
our strong attacks on Huckabee are still strong among seniors.  This is
not the face for Giuliani as our attacks on him do not score well among
seniors.  If Giuliani somehow ends up as the nominee, this will be a
concern.

 

Giuliani:

Overall:  49-42 (initial) to 45-40 (final).  Shift of -2.

Seniors:  35-52 (initial) to 27-49 (final).  Shift of -5

Obama does very poorly against Giuliani among seniors and he continues
to lose ground through the debate.  This is partially due to the lack of
effectiveness of our attacks among this group.

Pushing Kerik as DHS secretary pops a bit among this group in the list
of negative facts, toping the list along with Rudy covering up the
expenses of his Hamptons affair.  In the doubt battery none of our
attacks score as well among seniors as they did overall.  The top attack
is on Giuliani's ethics, but it only scores a 26% very serious, 54%
total serious score.  Attacks tying him to Bush are second, scoring 26%
very serious, 51% total serious.  Again, slightly worse than among the
overall population.

Romney:

Overall: 48-39 (initial) to 46-39 (final).  No real shift.

Seniors: 38-45 (initial) to 35-39 (final).  Shift of +3.

So the situation is not as dire against Romney and Obama actually
improves among seniors against him.  This is probably because our
attacks on Romney resonate strongly with seniors.  In fact, when we read
them the list of negative facts 15% of seniors select "all" of them.  

Tying Romney to Bush on Iraq is the top choice among this group.  41%
say this raises very serious doubt with a total of 58% saying it raises
serious doubts.  This is higher than among the overall population.
Romney being out of touch on economic issues also scores well among
seniors with 39% saying it raises very serious doubts and a total of 69%
saying it raises serious doubts.  In the follow up question Bush and
Iraq popped and was the clear choice with 22% citing this choice.

Huckabee:

Overall: 47-42 (initial) to 45-39 (final).  Shift of +1.

Seniors: 39-44 (initial) to 32-40 (final).  Shift of -3.

The Huckabee attacks perform at about the same rate among seniors that
they do among the overall population.  In the list of negative facts his
abortion extremism is the top choice.  On the doubts, ethics/judgment
(which includes the rapist) is tops at 39 percent very serious, 70
percent total serious - about the same as the overall population.  His
extremism is next at 37% very serious, 61% total serious.  Again, about
the same as the overall population).

 

 

Andrew Baumann

Analyst

10 G Street NE, Suite 500, Washington, DC 20002

Phone: 202 478 8300 / Fax: 202 478 8301

[email-masked] <mailto:[email-masked]>  

www.greenbergresearch.com <http://www.greenbergresearch.com>