Subject: [big campaign] Detailed Crosstabs on Romney, Palin, and Huckabee's Support in 2012
From: Aniello Alioto <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Thu, 9 Jul 2009 13:07:13 -0400
List-Id: <bigcampaign.googlegroups.com>

http://www.pollingnumbers.com/2012/detailed-crosstabs-on-romney,-palin,-and-huckabee%27s-support-in-2012-070909001.html

Detailed Crosstabs on Romney, Palin, and Huckabee's Support in 2012

7/9/09, by Proloy Bhatta

HIGHLIGHTS

   - Rasmussen: Romney 25%, Palin 24%, Huckabee 22%.
   - Contrary to public opinion, Palin's gender does not improve her chances
   with female GOP voters.
   - Romney attracts those in the highest income brackets.

Rasmussen Reports polled 750 likely GOP voters on July 6, 2009, three days
after Palin's resignation as Governor of Alaska. And according to their
results, her resignation neither helped nor hurt her chances for the 2012
Republican nomination.

Here were the results compared with the results of four prior national
polls.
 *Pollster* *Date* *Romney* *Palin* *Huckabee* *Gingrich*  AVERAGE   24 21.4
23.2 13.7  RR 7/6/09 25 24 22 14  CNN 5/14-17 21 21 22 13  FOX 5/12-13 18 13
20 14  CNN 2/18-19 21 29 26 -  Newsweek 10/22-23 35 20 26 -

In comparison with the poll of polls average, Palin has not hurt herself.
Keep in mind the shortcomings of doing a poll of polls average here. These
polls are stretched over a nine month period. So it is inaccurate to rely on
the average just as it would be to rely on one poll 18 months away from the
primary season.

To really know if the resignation hurt Palin, one would have to have done a
poll immediately prior to the resignation and then another one after. But
such a comparison does not exist. The latest poll was done in mid-May.

Since the 2008 election was decided primarily on the basis of demographics
i.e. younger voters for Obama and older voters for Clinton; we thought we'd
take a sneak peak into 2012 with the crosstabs of this poll.

Gender

Contrary to public opinion, Palin's gender does not improve her chances with
female GOP voters. There is no significant split along gender lines. Here
were the results:

   - Men: Romney 25%, Palin 24%, Huckabee 22%.
   - Women: Romney: 27%, Palin 23%, Huckabee 23%.

Age

But there is a split based on age.

Voters 65+ prefer Romney. Romney 34%, Palin 18%, Huckabee 19%, Gingrich 16%.

And younger voters prefer Palin and Huckabee. Those aged 18-29 say Palin
34%, Huckabee 31%, Romney 18%.

Religion

Evangelical Christians preferred Huckabee. Huckabee 35%, Palin 21%, Romney
17%.

Marriage

Unmarried voters preffered Palin. Palin 33%, Romney 23%, Huckabee 14%,
Gingrich 13%.

Her strength among unmarried voters could be because she appeals to younger
voters but Huckabee, who polled about as well as she did among 18-29 year
olds is polling very poorly among the unmarried.

Those with children favor Huckabee. Huckabee 31%, Palin 23%, Romney 20%.

Income

There's a split among income lines.

   - Palin attracts those making less than $40K.
   - Huckabee attracts those making $40K to $75K.
   - Romney attracts those in the highest income brackets.

 Case in point, Romney has a 15% lead among those making $100K+ and an 8%
lead among those in the $75K-$100K range.

Education

The education split is as follows.

   - Palin attracts those with less education,
   - Romney attracts those with more education.

Palin holds a 15% lead against Huckabee among those without a high school
degree and an 8% lead among those with a high school diploma. The more the
education you have, the more likely you are to support Romney. Romney leads
among grad school graduates and college graduates and is in a tie with
Huckabee among those having gone to college partially.

Other Candidates

Pawlenty and Barbour currently have very little traction as candidates. They
each polled at 1%. Bobby Jindal, Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist were excluded from
this poll despite having been included in prior polls. No libertarian
leaning candidate in the mode of Ron Paul was included either.

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