Subject: RE: Cincinnati Note
From: "Anna Greenberg" <[email-masked]>
To: "Begala, Paul" <[email-masked]>, "Kristi Fuksa" <[email-masked]>, [email-masked], "Susan McCue" <[email-masked]>, [email-masked], "Tara McGuinness" <[email-masked]>, [email-masked]
Cc: "ic2008" <[email-masked]>, "Stan Greenberg" <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 7 Feb 2008 11:54:10 -0500

Reading the verbatims really reinforces the power of the economic hits
against McCain.  

________________________________

From: Begala, Paul [mailto:[email-masked]] 
Sent: Thursday, February 07, 2008 11:11 AM
To: Kristi Fuksa; [email-masked]; Susan McCue;
[email-masked]; Tara McGuinness;
[email-masked]
Cc: ic2008; Stan Greenberg
Subject: RE: Cincinnati Note

Kristi,

Nice work.  I read the verbaitms and saw that some folks linked age with
temper -- you know, old and cranky.  The press is highly attuned to this
narrative and will look for ways to link it.  But I think a more
productive linkage has been suggested by John Podesta:  Old and set in
his ways - specifically, as John says, "It's not even that he's set in
his ways.  It's that he's set in Bush's ways."  It links McCain to Bush,
raises the age issue, and makes him implausible as an agent of change.
But nobody comes to it on their own.  You might consider a way of
raising that argument in future groups.

Thanks a lot,

Paul

________________________________

From: Kristi Fuksa [mailto:[email-masked]]
Sent: Thu 2/7/2008 3:02 AM
To: [email-masked]; Susan McCue; Begala, Paul;
[email-masked]; Tara McGuinness;
[email-masked]
Cc: ic2008; Stan Greenberg
Subject: Cincinnati Note

<mailto:[email-masked]> 

<http://www.greenbergresearch.com/> 

Tonight's groups in Cincinnati were composed of:

*Women, older, non college, income under 50K, weak partisans; 5 of who
voted for Bush. 4 Kerry, and 1 who voted for neither but leaned
Democrat.

*Men, Independents and Democrats who were either Undecided and warm
towards McCain or weak McCain supporters.  Seven of the ten men voted
for Kerry in 2004. 

 

McCain's initial standing in tonight's groups was quite strong.  The raw
impressions participants brought to the groups were mostly positive and
three major attributes stood out consistently.  First, McCain was
universally respected as a war hero and admired for his military
service, sacrifice, and love of country.  Second, participants saw
McCain as an experienced and strong leader.  And third, McCain was
repeatedly applauded for being a straight talker who stands by his
convictions, even if they are unpopular.  Nothing here is a surprise,
but when I went through all of the handouts the repetition was
remarkable.  The only universal concern that participants initially had
about McCain was his age and health.  Participants were not overly aware
of McCain's hot temper, but it was raised in both groups.

Some participants initially had questions about McCain's ability to
bring change and some wondered if his policies would be a continuation
of Bush.  However, most did not make this conclusion on their own at the
outset of the groups.  It seems that McCain's brand (war hero,
experience, straight talker) was so defined for these participants that
they lacked clarity on his actual policies.  Indeed, participants needed
a push tonight to derive that McCain is not going to bring the change
they seek and that he will continue the Bush agenda.

On the economy, participants were extremely troubled by McCain's
assertion that he doesn't understand the economy and the fundamentals
are strong.  This was true especially in the group of lower income women
where many were struggling with rising costs and job losses.  As we
heard in the last Dcorps groups, these participants tonight were very
concerned about the economic future but also angry about the economic
disparity.  That's why the hit on McCain defending his opposition to min
wage by saying he had forgone a pay raise causing his own family
hardships has potential.  One woman said, "he doesn't have a clue what
it is like to live on dollars for an hour."  And another chimed in,
"yeah, that's where economics comes in.  Take a class."  These
participants think McCain is out of touch with their reality and
therefore how can he improve their situation?  In addition, they said
that being president is not the time to "learn the ropes." Participants
were mostly unforgiving about McCain's recent economic blunders.  McCain
may be a straight talker on the economy, but he is dead wrong.

When it came to Iraq though, participants were a bit more willing to
give McCain the benefit of the doubt.  They mostly trusted his military
expertise and also his commitment to America- there was this sense that
he always does what is in the best interests of the country.  But
participants were concerned upon learning that McCain wants to continue
the war and will keep the troops in Iraq indefinitely.  The key here is
that McCain wants to continue the war, though.  Again, participants
defended McCain with the 100 years attacks because they made a clear
distinction between a US presence in Iraq and an active war.  They were
OK with a presence like Korea and actually thought it was important, but
they were wary of continuing the war that includes fatalities and
trillions being spent in Bagdad.  (On a side note- the 1000 years figure
is not credible.  Must use 100 years).  Participants were very receptive
to the priorities hit, especially when they visualized their kids and
grandkids fighting in Iraq and they think money is being wasted over in
Iraq that could be used at home.  The ads and the narrative attacks need
to draw these conclusions for them, though.  McCain may be a straight
talker on Iraq, but he is dead wrong.

Participants also found some of the facts that discredit the straight
talker image altogether.  From his flip flop on Bush tax cuts to
immigration to abortion, participants were very surprised to learn that
McCain has changed his position so drastically.  In addition, both the
hits on his ties to big oil and lobbyists were eye opening and
disturbing to the group.  As one participant said, "He has more baggage
than I thought."  Some of this also helps tie him to Bush.  As one
participant said, "He's [McCain] an oil man, that's his bread and butter
and that's why he has an interest in these big oil companies over here,
that's his interest, him and Bush."  One by one, these facts mounted a
case against the straight talker and muddled the image of him.  At the
end, more participants admitted that they really didn't know where
McCain stood on a number of issues.

***

Again, I apologize about the webcasting failure in the first group.  For
those of you who were planning to watch in the coming days, you will not
be able to watch it online, but I have a DVD of both groups which I can
get to you.  The second group though is available for you to watch
online right now.

Let me know if you have any questions or suggestions for tomorrow night.

thanks, Kristi