Subject: Trump's Momentum Continues
From: Anzalone Liszt Grove Research <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2015 16:03:31 -0400 (EDT)

Is The Donald just a political apprentice or can he survive the heat of the horse
race?
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It's great to be on top. Just ask Donald Trump, the [insert adjective of your choice
here] presidential candidate currently leading the pack of GOP contenders seeking
the Oval Office. Since his official entrance into the race on June 16, Trump has
 amassed an orb of media coverage that has eclipsed all other presidential candidates
[http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiAl2GgWcyGO44rKDm_vZoOLzEXoDXXSAMivZEdztW7g2ipQHgcBdZqIzJzYuAScBB_d2PkIdyZDg-s_ZLpN52fgNIhPALvL55SKcWR2xbZW-SRGRwOKu7TT9dUQxe2efHZRERcqa3xLdn_EYRWoWgRT00KObPaEyBvZteO9MUGQxAHO6wKqktykSQWpvrLGleV0OFwKdpM301o7xqDOyjFv3c-oFMgPrA&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==],
including Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. He's used his oversized personality
and media megaphone to make the sorts of comments usually reserved for fringe subreddits
and the darker corners of Twitter. Rather than getting punished in the polls for
 his trolling, Trump finds himself sitting on an average 11-point lead nationally
over his next closest rival, Jeb Bush (24% Trump / 13% Bush).
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In a recent NBC/Marist poll [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiLItdaqPTXWLzZsXCwi_dHV3JrXWyThRVFZCVul4ueWklAPQiYBJ8NmQ86e-du4vQhyc3oGakufitcGXS2KRA6LNTBkCUmQOSsEKoTeCFMR3Dgvlu_udzR8QJo3Z6AdxhThcBIIoSkY8UAKAS54B1ke0L6iFcDc-zyazBmipams8shPe-AoODNgbXcHJoQGLwETi-u7iP1WF30wIXrIN6qslpJR0NBZeDY91iLyc2M6uOuXKMRVRxhYbsyoTXUZMNCiQRKkwcx3D_KTIBVkx5BiC4craKP2majSO2Aow-dzUdTel1QJ1OBb91r9SHsbXE08ecuP445EQ=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
Trump ranks among the top three GOP candidates in Iowa (Walker 19 / Trump 17 / Bush
12). In New Hampshire, Monmouth University [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiqTGjQL_p9Mo_5snmzvQ8NtSt88_1M7voLRI6DFDyKBmkiTDKxeaJGAqdFcmWfvnjjfxlT-1Ocxqs8jvcu-qMMn2uwU21zG4JX7ct6JRl_qCHOtSZKyWcH1YuVbZk6omXr3BicAMxNzINwQJVayQy9hWpJ8D1PcSXs4tpi_9yUIAj1rsFzStcJaoFt4s8q0xQhPCAbunCCYgbN6ZjkyzZAw==&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
has Trump leading the pack by twelve points (Trump 24 / Bush 12 / Walker 7 / Kasich
7). Trump is also leading in New Jersey [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiI6tc1n6njsvjibpvr8AVtPIKr5ODXFvSo-eFdBb7RNOn0aFfQWWBVNNrUIj63ALi0usUIz_fxfgsctPb6i0cfneemJitloPHWBeNex8ibefK-JBlGaza_zRWssIR05ejyQqzlHZFPp_Kkqd4fS0tMrMMMzvYw9P0gxJpXPksLsoWQdMRvZz5NSPrXUUeP69HA0rQLtQx8E-WzArqN-vAkxB9T4Ej1gF2-D-iI8Q3eud2fcsgnttijIf9xAvt5_Hh_uKfwU04W5w=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
and Florida [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXigWlmB7KXypuAyC6RPTe4TXNxNrJj8JiX8ETB1-VIixI4kzwBn37H714mIyOPBD7wUbT6NDYyqClqW65y0kmcJIy8O6P1ch4YPLjdyDFohhnIFDU4ldeZdXcgi3AmOM7QJOnb76Uz0M0=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==],
beating out a current Governor, a former Governor and a sitting Senator in their
 own states. Furthermore, In the six weeks since he's announced his candidacy, Trump
has seen his support in the polls increase by 16 points.

Chalk up Trump's success to his celebrity status, blunt talk, universal name recognition,
massive wealth, insistence on bucking the Washington Campaign Playbook, or something
else, but for the time being no degree of incendiary comment or publicity stunt 
appears to be pulling him down.

So who are these his supporters? Are they "crazies" or real voters like the rest
 of us schmucks?  Well, it looks like Trump pulls votes from across the board with
Republicans but does better [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiUbLejRGMc_FMRX-2bFnoIO0lWSncSLKi5K0TfYZu222SN8LOP-PYMOR7RexRSFWaK1OuM9OfyaWM5-M-zs92fG_g8o-8P8IkgkinnKQs0msUQfnRvBLP1E_5F2YZ_ASr80ZR0enQ832MeuiNBD3G82Q0IEGZdupOSPiHg6d39k9j1jhRqQ9itaeSbDS_3HdoFNHkQyLJF9vVEy1X8LuGeUOj5Xr_adoZigihMDNik_QyXDHD-8h7YKuGjFt1j1GhJtOLiAblLCGEN-cAPFFH1KcpIlDJyIUl&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
with men, those with a high school education or less, and more conservative GOP 
voters.
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Demographics alone though won't give you a crystal ball analysis of a Trump supporter.
His broad appeal is his willingness to say whatever he wants without fear of offending
anyone or being deemed politically incorrect. To his supporters [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApyvTrQ2BLweYcV2doGGzdsnTTa3NUplYwbWucNMQ5JhWt4JGHB5jZKZGR_oxKKJEw7bbDUmGrqgKPN4zVbcZmv477hbgvsIMWQAfGviT2VGIOnrUla7GRP8Q1meMR2tmcRkPY6SQ49uLLY1a_k-JQoppQM12n-y5RnLdZHvcS0Ie&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==],
this brazenness is more important than any policy position (or lack of) or damning
comment about John McCain's military record. In fact, in the two weeks since Trump's
comments about McCain, his support in the polls has only increased despite predictions
by many that his candidacy would crumble under the media scrutiny. This promise 
to "shoot straight" with voters and "tell it like it is" was actually supposed to
be Christie's strength in the race. Foregoing traditional talking points, Trump 
is liberating Nixon's "silent majority" by giving them a voice that is pretty loud.
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Nevertheless, Trump remains polarizing among GOP voters. When Republican voters 
are asked which GOP candidate they would definitely never vote for, Trump tops the
list. 30 percent of respondents said they would never vote for Trump, with Christie
behind him at 15 percent and Bush at 14 percent according to the latest Quinnipiac
University Poll [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXitWOZLv1yxMOb0sdoRpbyAI90cg6zA6cU8nQEVuU1d8nVQG6vN8SjedLi3oxcfbMaTfINNiJd4Nzdj5rXQhZheUo2SFb5UTnwATutCKfCjSghpiKvm5YLS3BszEDFYAdOQyJjOqPxeL0d5OgVxnYmxMKengx2c0hcPblr3Fw8sBwiAyMbOpkR-_Qut_JFV7CvY6YKNZl6mPSzXKFD_UPZDMjmjpF4S-y96NNe-7kYD_SCCMZuFjsjWRTn-0Hm_GL36R5OV-0YasE=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==].
That's the major limiting factor for The Donald: for every Republican voter that
 likes Trump, there is an equal and greater number who don't.
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Trump in a General Election
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Democrats are giddy to face Trump, because outside the GOP primary he is downright
toxic. He receives a net-negative popularity rating (33% favorable / 58% unfavorable)
with especially poor numbers among women (29% unfavorable / 61% favorable). Even
 with Republican leaning groups like white evangelicals (45% favorable / 47% unfavorable)
and self-identified conservatives (46% favorable / 45% unfavorable), he's a mixed
bag (of wind?).

Moreover, among people of color, and specifically Hispanics, Trump performs dismally.
According to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiiSdcD2pRx5MSWAs4SOXVNFG72tas2lozCgWlC4L1HK8xGUz9tXJh9mvYARyY_8IXDzVJ2AHrI7e4-S_4q3WfkKp7Kuno5xTcJG-2p1guPwO6DwCxypSPlrJkBH5uB_QnmwQugYwiH_GE4B-KjyFQ3TRBWrFUR8_311HmjWu2FdleS04poMLxsRR10Z7nNaIK8P5ujU3CR4c=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
polling, nationally only 13 percent of Hispanics held a favorable view of Trump 
with 61 percent reporting very negative views.

Trump has a different take on his standing with Hispanics.
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Trump tweet [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiuqwO97bJch7p2UnYo1p19aegmNrHWNja2cC3UtNR8oTK9W2LqEERFqkAtehFuVAcduAriAqZNu0D78iu3mw-mxpOqw07Tzk06U7LsUiL5vxOL4dtyvSOxFqE3v--s8pD&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
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According to Public Policy Polling [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiM4gbKhW0x4M2uwOp80yv3N_a3oj5bYrIl1ejzwunza5-FCpen3MSqYxo2F5m-iufdQtCwPF9am2PqXfF9K5YX6xAIvhONA7AtIy_xuV5UMMkgTuwD9rdszRek5Bx-KVH3hWVUn-mOSTp-XhjTHCY19QaV3Ax92-oZSbSsQI5NBBhYz1KgxM0Qg==&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==],
Trump's popularity among Hispanics is at 34% favorable / 59% unfavorable, the highest
favorability among the GOP pool of candidates. It should be noted that PPP does 
not do dialing in Spanish and does not call cellphones, leaving wide swaths of Hispanic
voters out of their sample. Additionally, this finding is not corroborated by other
[http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXi5JNXXc1RZXYVjwK7QSPW25Ris4Y2RPjMVJGqncYvXVNBUctW77yJNCe6R1i34N3-gtVPTTKq-92m4JhuU4FmB2AFzt8uNmnAK24IiR5cZuKtlxebkKOo87quZXZi_wAkhGucLfKMQrPo-4Fyw5Vs7XPVtP-3fkxfyorbhTJ-T6KSXyB-Wn4hqDiQfmd-iOplO65GoFlrTwKo1apPXplHkw==&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]recent
[http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiFUgGFiM5gQ9VjN7VOL7GKDenlV6wZuqPpmggKNhP-z_Hh6_ZYkIZvR-kSxqyyOJGVM1-kar7t5aGlxID1JD75jj8TBvZA40zdFzgT9U_teCD-pxMAngrA3CJl0NfM1RS_7FsbSMUtG8ZDkxiK8cLaI-06F8qptAjzfBmEtxRVAhF5Wi5X8NRZaAqRCJl4ty4QF_KlMBe80fyqa8uW0S1FA==&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]national
[http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiiSdcD2pRx5MSWAs4SOXVNFG72tas2lozCgWlC4L1HK8xGUz9tXJh9mvYARyY_8IXDzVJ2AHrI7e4-S_4q3WfkKp7Kuno5xTcJG-2p1guPwO6DwCxypSPlrJkBH5uB_QnmwQugYwiH_GE4B-KjyFQ3TRBWrFUR8_311HmjWu2FdleS04poMLxsRR10Z7nNaIK8P5ujU3CR4c=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
polls.

Matched up against Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical General Election, Trump doesn't
fare so well either. Both CNN [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXi5JNXXc1RZXYVjwK7QSPW25Ris4Y2RPjMVJGqncYvXVNBUctW77yJNCe6R1i34N3-gtVPTTKq-92m4JhuU4FmB2AFzt8uNmnAK24IiR5cZuKtlxebkKOo87quZXZi_wAkhGucLfKMQrPo-4Fyw5Vs7XPVtP-3fkxfyorbhTJ-T6KSXyB-Wn4hqDiQfmd-iOplO65GoFlrTwKo1apPXplHkw==&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
and Marist's [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiwU4Q6exJTHKgmZo8ZBxqUbHRbJfIl-R0HYOHd6Bqdh0G0K6maDpMmA7gCIQt4C1tmaq322olqyCyOrWUpMkAHQWsx3YAmH0Sua7gKubVcwZ2TvVFOZuptUc3o31eTBHPQ_uj4YAsMkhLYmqEoI3JxMmcxv_y58Ur0Vg6xkC5T-g8Xy2bpNnXH1kYR0ZcXdp-s_Tn-M3sMPsGL1_SCzKGkuM270XEHyvbezo2ZYQzwtBVvNbN5wLS4-i7wphweyfUj4MeuX7Jy_HEF5_4DYvFl_NNPRaA_VHoXye_EOEANnE=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
latest polls have Clinton up 16 points (CNN: Clinton 56 / Trump 40, McClatchy: Clinton
54 / Trump 38). Quinnipiac shows Clinton with a 12 point advantage (Clinton 48 /
 Trump 36). In fact, that same poll has Trump even losing to Bernie Sanders [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXi583btKpy302iSMpy0TC_ZZapVR7AJR-lorXMOaBUXkRuDVcOc0_m49r2pi4GRwGPffzoG3tzTEOa3J2BCnwBc84C3bd_lhm60mfVjSnXn_ltNjMpx7983cDCDohfYAh6R9MSsgkG9xtjOkcV-A7XmH5gMM2Q7lpsDEVUTyJopBmr9On4xoXspT5zz054YKvr&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
(Sanders 44 / Trump 39). In fact, that same poll has Trump even losing to Bernie
 Sanders (Sanders 44 / Trump 39). Should Trump decide to run as an Independent, 
it's big trouble for Republicans. The latest Marist poll [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApyvTrQ2BLweYjuVeVXRfSHW4ND9npK6K8wrB0EkkEPXOJtAoe4fYbbqA0ay6wHGUDqDOup-PoabQl1EisOm-ieNYwkBJZTi02Wc56x1ZL3B-Eb8C8P0OlQJ3VR0JetAtf18P-SpGd3qgTaEcoDwLFbatx4RgSbMA6FsVUIvqtwGAD4QJYj49r8nGujBrLxeksjWR5FOO8Scqn6O2zjMc5V8=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
has Bush losing to Clinton in a two-way general election by 6 points (Clinton 49
 / Bush 43). Add Trump to the mix and Bush's vote share drops to 29 percent with
 Trump taking 20 percent (Clinton 44).
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At the end of the day, only 19 percent of GOP primary voters in the most recent 
Morning Consult [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiaEdWqqTTX8qCSBExOiSuvJ4sXJinsH8GCO_F9VLReK7hdufZktCI645QN7wbt98tOIjk1uKzNuhkLZekUb6Mslg_Xtc4akGJ_4bIKrOLqbAWw0xXPEysNdRQmes3CsLL74xgQc6-RbIwiGpPhT-kZAcAF3iA0NCxKTHn-cdIE8Bn_9FPMOA-Fg==&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
poll think Trump could actually win the nomination, whereas a quarter listed Bush
as the likely Republican candidate. The latest  YouGov/Economist poll [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiT9GyeLSyC__8u1GHtCGxotWS1VQ3vUQ9UcElAluIvhwJBMOFZK-gRZSW28e7PSy9oQU753xeDY9_zroKWQuCSfcYbplU4-SuOK0hFdZTkPQxSJbpQHJnB-xvVbs41RuAErCLW6-1v-P7pHc-QwELk0auEhAtcth1cRO_xw6vUmDxyUDo1UYqpmVyRhuZNMI8raBBc3vWj5pH3vpUVSaPl9nMihRwJjFk2wGEZgXvJLx7PAMDMCnL86vlKU2V7haGkbigcfezLoENohwT5eD1Ipxim03PpCNuOqV2T3UDkNVb0fNN7QFGPIy6i9BMHn6L-WvpGQwBVoMWYV8Gu1nkSA==&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
shows an even wider margin for Bush, with Republican voters citing him as their 
likely nominee over Trump by 26 points.
This gap between current support and belief about credibility as the GOP candidate
reveals a vulnerability in Trump's candidacy, suggesting his time at the top may
 be limited. We've seen these head fake leads in the past with Herbert Cain, Rudy
Guliani and even Fred Thompson. While The Donald does feel different, he has a long
road before the first vote is cast.
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For what it's worth, this is not the first time Trump has topped the polls among
 GOP presidential candidates. Four years ago, Trump was polling at similar levels
of support without even making a formal announcement. In April 2011, Trump polled
[http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiNudeKHm6oHuVsO7OTJGBbc8GmqHU4FhvHnOkSb7pQa34Nj-oLNPlo_t1PP6UbepfvMv67_wCnE5HV_84meh73fM_SYsEnBJoH4vV_DUeRP3jkPpaboWEqnEHzaOzdA-BWHSWdHuFSriQOKR74wV3Jz_1rfouEvKbStOcvx-7ynHTSSTwdnSPOiIu-ytfxxaH-bNhpNXSaHgSYSMkEFH39x5AEjj4z5CUV4sZT-2enDNqpOsLK3OZMqzP-gf13JYvff4Rbk9XpptCwfWN5ilWoFTguZiFfvZb9v26J92i00Y=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
at 13 percent behind Romney (18%) and Huckabee (17%) and was the top candidate among
Republican leaning independents. By May, Trump announced he would not be seeking
 the Oval Office, though not without his trademark bravado [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiDern6TmpcT814GOjhNk7sFrl4V4oNccfSS8ryscYdmOhuCjNIcMq1c3IJJXbkobp6Oo_EVn1pWoJdTbxCUxERJEbj4etxcrKcDUKuX8JU6Y5_S0CUEN3wzlPNtRy_g6VwEhqLGgOllImKy8RRbDvQCWy_yDSsxaQUxGqB-6kVH3UC0mlDxOyKPY9ZkzkIe-s&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
("I maintain the strong conviction that if I were to run, I would be able to win
 the primary and, ultimately, the general election").

Where does the Trump ride end? We are glad we don't have to make a living out of
 predicting what GOP voters will do. Matt Dickinson breaks down what Trump's ceiling
looks like and how close he is to approaching it in an op-ed with U.S. News [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiJp2IjNBgBniz-vTjayjuoVvjzBI_ZDko4Af4cschaDyNq6f-Xxy1Hlk5a7dk6TGWBXax3oMqqFeKZhXfm9bI5Ed6MFrMnThwbIWobXHjMFtST3NJoOnAmp2ch5CjWkkgJFF59_CUEVERn6a4G4b6mj_FZrZ2rp8VibBhUy5L5lU7qmYrBO8XFJUjD165iv4u87OWnoCin6JVt2mP6c9YcN_lX-NoGJBBobDZO8XOQeo=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==].
We'll be eagerly watching Thursday night's debate (the one Trump may or may not 
prep for [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiv_6TQox9ClVRyAMUvLr4sB2M7h1oZd0oOwUhVbVr6pLypUC-TygIeTBNO1yYtw8w8U8wHDQ0IUs1fywuTf7h672kdAIeagw7gebCWfzNTfq9USBtXQOj7UGXWVBeQaN5tBoF5kU1ukl5TwkGGbU9S0LuKH2cp0Nkmez-VvAfhnpVK1ksU2B8XRDgxsCTEJmGTz3VT_upxhc=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==])
and the polling that comes in after to see whether his time at the top is coming
 to its end.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Thank you for reading our pollsters' take on data and trends affecting the national
political landscape. Stay tuned for regular thoughtful analysis on all things political.
In the meantime, enjoy our round-up of favorite stories from the latest news cycle
below.
- Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OTHER NEWS FROM THE POLLING & POLITICAL WORLD
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

new [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXilJlALffZIx9RqqohcZWXoAuyMMF4SQGx3rc_qxh8VZXiMD1Tra9LVGFKpV-Betql8tOT0lHZMYhxMIUwWj_cjAN1fgUVWxIxKzmtgKD_SGd3Jv7NwHokSJpGYkmjMf0vbrXOOtUAcgg=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]ads
[http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiqDVSJded3QC6a56ipSk6VZLlnrCfjbhCNwYqSxoDRHshCFkh74Tui3kZFe9ypnktB0OkuMuy74QkH1dBpR9dA8O0Ku9ydV6C5pHVW9f_ZIwKkpj-oqUWsyPcY9cmGySZ_QrCUkWMq6A=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
about her mother
most Googled GOP candidate [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXijE7S2anCE289a89eSmrCeSBULLwxifoh-q6wnHmTUOXjCkzWmhlhJoCyGXffP0TSGQTX4yi31mDridhgItr9BPjzvqMxxajS0ikmS4YWZfPxx8mVvW5gT0FTOwQcaj4__Tqwjw6vTkGGeGD53JGC9JQVRY6MOjXA1ErwTuXY2yEvV-hEDMz9oA==&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
in every state
viewed more favorably [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiV-uaVwWKCG_0sqWDW0nEo-OvA3wVcMGnc2ZvNyMfyGMbqKwUWvL2kmFygkd4V6jO6n9lQzF9uFqDUhDbE5_4s6rB0kj-jX4teiadGAUqP51B8-l0NOvhr2SppGUbZf8SB0oBRTOs0ccXX8zz0FF5UcDIg2AD7EVyxQ7Q5gPvkggwgTp49OkkakEt4R9JE4Xh&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
 than any presidential candidate
tumbles to a 15-year low [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXikni85v5Ec_gjfmZyQV5jCfqDJZ7xgrM0VfvUXiLFnbhQl9yYmDM_ZRQ-EFtVOEclgIB-cdrY1XIT5zNBZZhRBcKGz3x3SnQlhReLTDHNNakzcH1-BmeCVbK-4AuF8FrMO1-2rnzoWQ7FSLEUAEBEp7P0jRajGIxYsY-hDCq1H94lmjaGRS1aMyosUTqyWBcEzOtcDr1Bw36wFad4vkdL7gHQhbIw-BdEI03VSF8FnI2aoQ1qeDxxwaN8D8QXasNSucDoDKthUrd8CHM2ewMS5snb9sOSEoylqPRXYEc3RWs=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
raised nearly as much [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiTYKifmFhEfcP70U3-t1VHtfST_D3y98e4uDZjV31peCznEY_sWk_mrnsRZravGvo433if8gFAhRC1bRSbzdHVkckvUceHIjvc0PdFJQLdSWyOjbXhUBrfIrWJeI8glrt7lcXgiaCeNRDy6yIj1tLCkMxPEYvKM5tBiZBTVSEdts6cChSbS2qb2PcC3a-Ez3VLzCwzsInvP0anxgVzM90eutAkVP5QgS3A6QHIBkdv8Q=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
as they spent in total in 2012 (and the election is still 15 months away)
starred in an infomercial for Bedazzler [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApyvTrQ2BLweYlbiA9E2zJdF-hb40Y2LHaghq6C-ihGifD57BCsl5AYZ0dXtbtq4fpeqtgHw03YFCJi1CD99sepAvmqxZZtlrPCVZIsCcFdTZNc4dICw99B5GcvwtE6GJATiE8R08-OBXL_FaBEeMXlhqv-iSlOvHm4PGr4MREM0lqsdJc2SVgj62AhdSSa9_5A==&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
(no, really)
most notable [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXilxR1Mvc94e12-e8l_R3tEqtJYuXAZmYBFfpT4sCpy6XO0Rx616WXNj2PVJPe_A_QNszxrtBKXsLBh20hjOrSu7O_hPKw3O9gA3q6iSJ6AAKK6vY1pMUFGIKao_N6PCDADtMUfU9UXiST6r0U7GUVyh2gSBcbla1lS_JsKSrvOJjTJEhZOCJ99_mvkVHmlorOtqxercEhOc0=&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
insults
Trump insult [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiS9b47Nz5i0cOZtdMpplYow-8LoI023uqf02Ry1t_dfPDPXHqiuWSoRnM6UiDa2kDtqZCM32TBrjLxr9lNd5dNF5m7t9YjM4hpqvrjVJOKwITnyT3-E6P1nDC8c4B6k9ylRYko9CgUlk_TKQDneZjln1uPzsJIQg6&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
Trump your cat [http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001aapIhJc1JHnlXMTfrOj6lLtbL-mPLY0YhgS0pQQAg-5ozjXI3oUApy0HwoqBpKXiCIJ5TQoAs82WjwGQB7ber1Tilf7OVwL63VQBJnem20CUUaiBRDg0hFDPlfJPu9nn9BMsWACNmpwLDOaJUAWv9-nQFWl5aIA3GbeP_YcV6QvM5nStXTS4sKSPvv5rCSYF&c=T-_nyCSxkLpWMAKFjMM9bf7QtMRT_0iKPs0q_-5yUeiDi4tLsumniw==&ch=WtKOleDEQjbSqBcE5MYEhtpkrAg7cmHolU-c5fz85sCzAjAsb5HN-w==]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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