Subject: Long Term Planning - Thoughts
From: "Barbara Page (Hibino)" <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Cc: Carl Page <[email-masked]>, Franklin Urteaga <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2015 18:05:18 -0700

John,
Thanks for asking my husband Carl and myself about long-term planning.  We
are happily married, agree on the problem but disagree on the solution.

Carl thinks that the solution to long-term planning is adding an additional
form of stock, Loyalty shares
<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2188661>.  I think that
the US*did *have long-term planning right after WWII.  It was rooted in our
technology, energy and other resource advantages.  Large, long-term
government procurement contracts allowed contractors to build
monopolies/duopolies.  The excess in resources gave them room to do R&D,
innovate and to plan.

As US technologies spread, and as procurement underwent scrutiny, it became
less certain and more bureaucratic.  Without the cushion of long-term
government contracts, US companies have become more subject to the vagaries
of the stock market, more hand-to-mouth.  Concerned mostly about the stock
price, they are shrinking R&D budgets, and less able to develop technology
advantages, in a vicious cycle of technology and economic down spiral with
respect to companies in other countries who can plan.

I am not certain of the solution.  I hope that a solution would ensure that
procurement is fair, and serves the public interests.  In areas where the
government wants innovation that would benefit the public, perhaps it could
'guarantee' procurement if certain performance or product features were
met.  Perhaps other government mechanisms could be created that would allow
more companies to de-link decisionmaking from ownership structure
<https://investor.google.com/corporate/2004/ipo-founders-letter.html>, and
the quarterly earning pressures of the stock market.  Or, more tax credits
to increase risky projects, innovation and planning in those areas that
serve the public interest, such as renewable energy.

Thanks for asking - hope our debate is instructive - great to see another
Lane Tech alum with Chicago grit in high places.

Best Regards,
Barbara (Hibino) Page