Subject: Re: Obaam among seniors
From: "Begala, Paul" <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked], [email-masked]
Cc: [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked]
Date: Tue, 8 Jan 2008 11:36:10 -0500

What's the labor-affiliated seniors group?  Rich Fiesta used to run it. 

----- Original Message -----
From: Andrew Baumann <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked] <[email-masked]>; Begala, Paul
Cc: Susan McCue <[email-masked]>; ic2008 <[email-masked]>; Ana Iparraguirre <[email-masked]>; Bryan Fisher <[email-masked]>; John Podesta <[email-masked]>; Kristi Fuksa <[email-masked]>; Stan Greenberg <[email-masked]>; Tara McGuinness <[email-masked]>
Sent: Tue Jan 08 10:16:11 2008
Subject: RE: Obaam among seniors

USA (United Seniors Association) is a pretty well-funded pro-privatization, pro-prescription drug bill astroturf group I think.  Big front for PhRMA

________________________________

From: [email-masked] [mailto:[email-masked]] On Behalf Of Tom Matzzie
Sent: Tuesday, January 08, 2008 10:12 AM
To: Begala, Paul
Cc: Susan McCue; Andrew Baumann; ic2008; Ana Iparraguirre; Bryan Fisher; John Podesta; Kristi Fuksa; Stan Greenberg; Tara McGuinness
Subject: Re: Obaam among seniors

FWIW, United Seniors (slightly different) is an extant seniors group--I think part of the Richard Viguerie world of direct mail outfits.

On Jan 7, 2008 10:15 PM, Begala, Paul < [email-masked] <mailto:[email-masked]> > wrote:

I suspect McCain will do better among seniors than any of the other Repubs we've tested.  So, yes, Susan, your idea of a Seniors United is an excellent one.

 

________________________________

From: Susan McCue [mailto:[email-masked]] 
Sent: Monday, January 07, 2008 3:38 PM
To: Andrew Baumann; ic2008; Ana Iparraguirre; Bryan Fisher; John Podesta; Kristi Fuksa; Begala, Paul; Stan Greenberg; Tara McGuinness; Tom Matzzie
Subject: RE: Obaam among seniors

Tara and I talked today about starting a seniors surrogate group.  Maybe "seniors united" as a branch of AU?  

________________________________

From: Andrew Baumann [mailto:[email-masked]] 
Sent: Monday, January 07, 2008 11:50 AM
To: ic2008; Ana Iparraguirre; Bryan Fisher; John Podesta; Kristi Fuksa; Paul Begala; Stan Greenberg; Susan McCue; Tara McGuinness; Tom Matzzie
Subject: Obaam among seniors

Some notes on Obama's standing with seniors.  As noted, he does more poorly among this around in all 3 match-ups, especially against Giuliani.  We have some very good attacks among seniors for Romney, and our strong attacks on Huckabee are still strong among seniors.  This is not the face for Giuliani as our attacks on him do not score well among seniors.  If Giuliani somehow ends up as the nominee, this will be a concern.

 

Giuliani:

Overall:  49-42 (initial) to 45-40 (final).  Shift of -2.

Seniors:  35-52 (initial) to 27-49 (final).  Shift of -5

Obama does very poorly against Giuliani among seniors and he continues to lose ground through the debate.  This is partially due to the lack of effectiveness of our attacks among this group.

Pushing Kerik as DHS secretary pops a bit among this group in the list of negative facts, toping the list along with Rudy covering up the expenses of his Hamptons affair.  In the doubt battery none of our attacks score as well among seniors as they did overall.  The top attack is on Giuliani's ethics, but it only scores a 26% very serious, 54% total serious score.  Attacks tying him to Bush are second, scoring 26% very serious, 51% total serious.  Again, slightly worse than among the overall population.

Romney:

Overall: 48-39 (initial) to 46-39 (final).  No real shift.

Seniors: 38-45 (initial) to 35-39 (final).  Shift of +3.

So the situation is not as dire against Romney and Obama actually improves among seniors against him.  This is probably because our attacks on Romney resonate strongly with seniors.  In fact, when we read them the list of negative facts 15% of seniors select "all" of them.  

Tying Romney to Bush on Iraq is the top choice among this group.  41% say this raises very serious doubt with a total of 58% saying it raises serious doubts.  This is higher than among the overall population.  Romney being out of touch on economic issues also scores well among seniors with 39% saying it raises very serious doubts and a total of 69% saying it raises serious doubts.  In the follow up question Bush and Iraq popped and was the clear choice with 22% citing this choice.

Huckabee:

Overall: 47-42 (initial) to 45-39 (final).  Shift of +1.

Seniors: 39-44 (initial) to 32-40 (final).  Shift of -3.

The Huckabee attacks perform at about the same rate among seniors that they do among the overall population.  In the list of negative facts his abortion extremism is the top choice.  On the doubts, ethics/judgment (which includes the rapist) is tops at 39 percent very serious, 70 percent total serious – about the same as the overall population.  His extremism is next at 37% very serious, 61% total serious.  Again, about the same as the overall population).

 

 

Andrew Baumann

Analyst

10 G Street NE, Suite 500, Washington, DC 20002

Phone: 202 478 8300 / Fax: 202 478 8301

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www.greenbergresearch.com <http://www.greenbergresearch.com>