Subject: RE: Huckabee leads in Iowa-- new DMR poll
From: "Begala, Paul" <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked], "John Podesta" <[email-masked]>, "Stan Greenberg" <[email-masked]>, "Susan McCue" <[email-masked]>
Cc: "Tara McGuinness" <[email-masked]>, "Jim Gerstein" <[email-masked]>, "Ana Iparraguirre" <[email-masked]>, "Zach Schwartz" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 15:56:25 -0500

Yet more evidence that we should include Huckabee and drop McCain from
our survey research.  If we're only going to look at three Republicans
-- and I think that's right -- I think those three are Romney, Giuliani
and Huckabee.  

________________________________

From: [email-masked] [mailto:[email-masked]] On Behalf Of Tom
Matzzie
Sent: Sunday, December 02, 2007 3:46 PM
To: John Podesta; Stan Greenberg; Begala, Paul; Susan McCue
Cc: Tara McGuinness; Jim Gerstein; Ana Iparraguirre; Zach Schwartz
Subject: Huckabee leads in Iowa-- new DMR poll

Huckabee new GOP leader in Iowa Poll

By JONATHAN ROOS * REGISTER STAFF WRITER * Copyright 2007, Des Moines
Register and Tribune Company * December 2, 2007

Mike Huckabee has leaped ahead of Republican presidential rival Mitt
Romney in Iowa, seizing first place in a new Des Moines Register poll of
likely Republican caucus participants.

Huckabee wins the support of 29 percent of Iowans who say they
definitely or probably will attend the Republican Party's caucuses on
Jan. 3. That's a gain of 17 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll
was taken in early October, when Huckabee trailed both Romney and Fred
Thompson.

Other poll findings indicate that the former Arkansas governor is making
the most of a low-budget campaign by tapping into the support of Iowa's
social conservatives.

Romney, who has invested more time and money campaigning in the state
than any other GOP candidate, remains in the thick of the Iowa race with
the backing of 24 percent of likely caucusgoers. But that's a drop of 5
points since October for the former Massachusetts governor.

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Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, the frontrunner in national polls,
holds third place in Iowa at 13 percent, despite waging a limited
campaign in the state.

Thompson, a former U.S. senator from Tennessee who waited until
September to formally enter the race for the Republican nomination, has
slipped to fourth place in the Iowa Poll, at 9 percent.

U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas are
tied for fifth place at 7 percent each. Four other candidates trail
them. The new Iowa Poll, conducted over four days last week, has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The complexion of the race could easily change in the last month of
intense campaigning ahead of the caucuses, which lead off the
presidential nominating process. Roughly six in 10 likely Republican
caucus participants say they could still be persuaded to support another
candidate. Poll participant Thelma Whittaker, a retired teacher from
Columbus Junction, is leaning toward supporting Huckabee in the caucuses
but also could back Romney.

"I'm a very conservative Republican and I feel that (Huckabee) follows
through with those ideas," said Whittaker, who is troubled by the
country's moral decline. On the other hand, she wonders if Huckabee is a
strong enough candidate to win the White House for the GOP.

When it comes to Romney, "I go along with a lot of his ideas,'"
Whittaker said, "but he's also done some flip-flopping that scares me on
issues like abortion and taxes."

Huckabee has come a long way since last May, when he languished in a tie
for sixth place in the Register's poll, garnering the support of just 4
percent of likely caucus participants then.

His campaign picked up steam after he notched a surprising second-place
finish in the Iowa Republican Party's straw poll in August.

The Register's new scientific poll shows Huckabee, a former Baptist
minister, leading Romney 38 percent to 22 percent among those who
consider themselves born-again Christians. In October, Romney edged
Huckabee 23 percent to 18 percent among people in that group, which
accounts for one-half of all likely caucus participants.

Similarly, Huckabee holds a 2-to-1 lead over Romney among those who say
it is more important for a presidential candidate to be socially
conservative than fiscally conservative.

Here are some other key comparisons for the two leading candidates in
the poll:

- Huckabee leads Romney among men, 28 percent to 20 percent. They run
neck-and-neck among women. 

- Huckabee draws more support than Romney among caucusgoers between the
ages of 35 and 54, while Romney does better among younger adults. They
compete almost evenly among those 55 or older.

Older Iowans generally turn out in larger numbers for the caucuses than
do younger adults.

- Both candidates are regarded favorably by more than three-fourths of
likely caucus participants. 

- Huckabee outscores Romney and the rest of the Republican field as the
candidate seen as the most socially conservative, the most civil in tone
and the most principled.

- Romney leads on six characteristics, including the most presidential
of the GOP candidates, the most fiscally conservative and the best able
to bring about real change.

Giuliani, the poll's third-place finisher, is seen as the most electable
of the candidates and also has a slight edge as the most effective
negotiator and the best able to bring Republicans and Democrats
together.

On the other hand, Giuliani is seen by more likely caucus participants
as the most ego-driven of the candidates.

Other poll findings show that Giuliani is more of a polarizing figure
than the other top-tier candidates in Iowa: 

- Thirty-four percent of likely caucusgoers see him as one of the worst
choices for the Republican nomination. Paul ranks second in that
category, at 26 percent.

- While 61 percent regard Giuliani favorably, 38 percent have
unfavorable feelings toward him. Only Paul has a higher unfavorable mark
in the poll, at 44 percent.

"He's too New York," Whittaker, the retired teacher, said of Giuliani.
"He doesn't understand us. He doesn't care to understand us."

But poll participant Mark Pottorff, an agronomist from Sergeant Bluff,
sides with those who have a high regard for Giuliani, citing his
experience as a federal prosecutor and big-city mayor.

"He is tough on crime and during September 2001 he led New York City
through some very tough and dark days," said Pottorff, 51. "I think he
has the ability and the fortitude to stand up to dictators and
terrorists."

Pottorff's second choice for the Republican presidential nomination is
Romney, citing his experience in business and government and his
commitment to his family.

Other poll findings show Thompson, the fourth-place finisher overall,
tying with Huckabee as the candidate who is most like Ronald Reagan -
the Republican president often cited by party leaders as their role
model.

Paul, an opponent of the war in Iraq, has the dubious distinction as the
GOP candidate who outpolls his rivals as the most negative contender.

But Paul, who has a loyal following and a well-funded campaign, has been
creeping up in the Register's polls this year of likely caucus
participants, matching McCain's level of support in the latest survey.

Reporter Jonathan Roos can be reached at (515) 284-8443 or
[email-masked]