Subject: RE: Huckabee leads in Iowa-- new DMR poll
From: "Begala, Paul" <[email-masked]>
To: "Stan Greenberg" <[email-masked]>, "Tom Matzzie" <[email-masked]>, "John Podesta" <[email-masked]>, "Susan McCue" <[email-masked]>
Cc: "Tara McGuinness" <[email-masked]>, "Jim Gerstein" <[email-masked]>, "Ana Iparraguirre" <[email-masked]>, "Zach Schwartz" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 09:14:46 -0500

Could be that he has a chance.  A "significant" one...I doubt it.  But
who the hell knows?  I just want to get more depth from the survey, and
I think McCain's position on immigration is lethal to his chances for
the nomination.  If he starts to gain traction, Romney has the issue to
croak him and the money to do it.  I could be wrong, but I am certain
about the need to go into more depth on the survey, so I'm looking to
cut.  

________________________________

From: Stan Greenberg [mailto:[email-masked]] 
Sent: Sunday, December 02, 2007 9:23 PM
To: Begala, Paul; Tom Matzzie; John Podesta; Susan McCue
Cc: Tara McGuinness; Jim Gerstein; Ana Iparraguirre; Zach Schwartz
Subject: Re: Huckabee leads in Iowa-- new DMR poll

Don't  you think with Romney and Giuliani weakening that McCain has a
significant chance of winning in New Hampshire?  Stan

On 12/2/07 3:56 PM, "Begala, Paul" <[email-masked]> wrote:

	Yet more evidence that we should include Huckabee and drop
McCain from our survey research.  If we're only going to look at three
Republicans -- and I think that's right -- I think those three are
Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee.  

________________________________

	From: [email-masked] [mailto:[email-masked]] On Behalf
Of Tom Matzzie
	Sent: Sunday, December 02, 2007 3:46 PM
	To: John Podesta; Stan Greenberg; Begala, Paul; Susan McCue
	Cc: Tara McGuinness; Jim Gerstein; Ana Iparraguirre; Zach
Schwartz
	Subject: Huckabee leads in Iowa-- new DMR poll
	
	Huckabee new GOP leader in Iowa Poll
	By JONATHAN ROOS * REGISTER STAFF WRITER * Copyright 2007, Des
Moines Register and Tribune Company * December 2, 2007
	
	Mike Huckabee has leaped ahead of Republican presidential rival
Mitt Romney in Iowa, seizing first place in a new Des Moines Register
poll of likely Republican caucus participants.
	Huckabee wins the support of 29 percent of Iowans who say they
definitely or probably will attend the Republican Party's caucuses on
Jan. 3. That's a gain of 17 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll
was taken in early October, when Huckabee trailed both Romney and Fred
Thompson.
	
	Other poll findings indicate that the former Arkansas governor
is making the most of a low-budget campaign by tapping into the support
of Iowa's social conservatives.
	
	Romney, who has invested more time and money campaigning in the
state than any other GOP candidate, remains in the thick of the Iowa
race with the backing of 24 percent of likely caucusgoers. But that's a
drop of 5 points since October for the former Massachusetts governor.
	 
	Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, the frontrunner in national
polls, holds third place in Iowa at 13 percent, despite waging a limited
campaign in the state.
	
	Thompson, a former U.S. senator from Tennessee who waited until
September to formally enter the race for the Republican nomination, has
slipped to fourth place in the Iowa Poll, at 9 percent.
	
	U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas
are tied for fifth place at 7 percent each. Four other candidates trail
them. The new Iowa Poll, conducted over four days last week, has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
	
	The complexion of the race could easily change in the last month
of intense campaigning ahead of the caucuses, which lead off the
presidential nominating process. Roughly six in 10 likely Republican
caucus participants say they could still be persuaded to support another
candidate. Poll participant Thelma Whittaker, a retired teacher from
Columbus Junction, is leaning toward supporting Huckabee in the caucuses
but also could back Romney.
	
	"I'm a very conservative Republican and I feel that (Huckabee)
follows through with those ideas," said Whittaker, who is troubled by
the country's moral decline. On the other hand, she wonders if Huckabee
is a strong enough candidate to win the White House for the GOP.
	
	When it comes to Romney, "I go along with a lot of his ideas,'"
Whittaker said, "but he's also done some flip-flopping that scares me on
issues like abortion and taxes."
	
	Huckabee has come a long way since last May, when he languished
in a tie for sixth place in the Register's poll, garnering the support
of just 4 percent of likely caucus participants then.
	
	His campaign picked up steam after he notched a surprising
second-place finish in the Iowa Republican Party's straw poll in August.
	
	The Register's new scientific poll shows Huckabee, a former
Baptist minister, leading Romney 38 percent to 22 percent among those
who consider themselves born-again Christians. In October, Romney edged
Huckabee 23 percent to 18 percent among people in that group, which
accounts for one-half of all likely caucus participants.
	
	Similarly, Huckabee holds a 2-to-1 lead over Romney among those
who say it is more important for a presidential candidate to be socially
conservative than fiscally conservative.
	
	Here are some other key comparisons for the two leading
candidates in the poll:
	
	- Huckabee leads Romney among men, 28 percent to 20 percent.
They run neck-and-neck among women. 
	
	- Huckabee draws more support than Romney among caucusgoers
between the ages of 35 and 54, while Romney does better among younger
adults. They compete almost evenly among those 55 or older.
	
	Older Iowans generally turn out in larger numbers for the
caucuses than do younger adults.
	
	- Both candidates are regarded favorably by more than
three-fourths of likely caucus participants. 
	
	- Huckabee outscores Romney and the rest of the Republican field
as the candidate seen as the most socially conservative, the most civil
in tone and the most principled.
	
	- Romney leads on six characteristics, including the most
presidential of the GOP candidates, the most fiscally conservative and
the best able to bring about real change.
	
	Giuliani, the poll's third-place finisher, is seen as the most
electable of the candidates and also has a slight edge as the most
effective negotiator and the best able to bring Republicans and
Democrats together.
	
	On the other hand, Giuliani is seen by more likely caucus
participants as the most ego-driven of the candidates.
	
	Other poll findings show that Giuliani is more of a polarizing
figure than the other top-tier candidates in Iowa: 
	
	- Thirty-four percent of likely caucusgoers see him as one of
the worst choices for the Republican nomination. Paul ranks second in
that category, at 26 percent.
	
	- While 61 percent regard Giuliani favorably, 38 percent have
unfavorable feelings toward him. Only Paul has a higher unfavorable mark
in the poll, at 44 percent.
	
	"He's too New York," Whittaker, the retired teacher, said of
Giuliani. "He doesn't understand us. He doesn't care to understand us."
	
	But poll participant Mark Pottorff, an agronomist from Sergeant
Bluff, sides with those who have a high regard for Giuliani, citing his
experience as a federal prosecutor and big-city mayor.
	
	"He is tough on crime and during September 2001 he led New York
City through some very tough and dark days," said Pottorff, 51. "I think
he has the ability and the fortitude to stand up to dictators and
terrorists."
	
	Pottorff's second choice for the Republican presidential
nomination is Romney, citing his experience in business and government
and his commitment to his family.
	
	Other poll findings show Thompson, the fourth-place finisher
overall, tying with Huckabee as the candidate who is most like Ronald
Reagan - the Republican president often cited by party leaders as their
role model.
	
	Paul, an opponent of the war in Iraq, has the dubious
distinction as the GOP candidate who outpolls his rivals as the most
negative contender.
	
	But Paul, who has a loyal following and a well-funded campaign,
has been creeping up in the Register's polls this year of likely caucus
participants, matching McCain's level of support in the latest survey.
	
	Reporter Jonathan Roos can be reached at (515) 284-8443 or
[email-masked]