Subject: A Few Thoughts on Trump's ISIS Comment - For What They Are Worth
From: "Bialos, Jeff" <[email-masked]>
To: "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 3 Jan 2016 20:25:59 +0000

Greetings and Happy New Year:

            I read with interest and some concern Trump’s latest assertion – namely, that the policies of President Obama and Hillary “created ISIS.”   This appears to be part of a concerted recent effort to tag Hillary with something that sticks – along the lines of his successful assertion that Bush was “low energy,” which resonated because it appeared to have some degree of merit.

While I’m sure you are all on top of this, I thought to mention a few points for what they are worth.  While on one level Trump’s assertion is somewhat silly and superficial, on another its potentially clever because it could possibly lead to a new spate of articles on how ISIS came to be and the US role in it.  Frankly, it also may resonate somewhat as well (especially with respect to Obama) because of the widely shared perception, rightly or wrongly, that the Obama Administration was slow to address ISIS and that its resulting strategy is limited in nature and ineffectual (witness terrorist incidents in Europe and the United States).

I guess there are at least several options for inoculating Hillary on this theme (and its admittedly a matter of politics as well as policy):

1.     Treat it lightly (almost as a joke – “you’ve got to be kidding me – did she create [x] too?”) and dismiss it as silly or largely ignore it;

2.     Note that the Arab spring and civil war in Syria largely created the environment in which ISIS could emerge, not US policy.

3.     Draw distinctions between Hillary and Obama, noting her support for continuing the Status of Forces Agreement in Iraq and the decision to arm the Syrian rebels several years ago (which Obama rejected and which arguably did play a role in causing ISIS). (This has been highlighted effectively in the past).

4.     Respond by highlighting Hillary’s more robust anti-ISIS and anti-terrorist policies she recently laid out.

I guess I’d vote for some combination of 1, 2 and 4.  While “less” is generally “more” in these things, I don’t see how you can let this go entirely as it can have some legs.  While there may be a time for the third point, I worry its too defensive and gets into a more complex discussion more useful for policy wonks than the general public.

            Best Regards,

            JPB

Jeff Bialos | Partner

Sutherland Asbill & Brennan LLP
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