Subject: Correct The Record Monday February 16, 2015 Afternoon Roundup
From: Burns Strider <[email-masked]>
To: CTRFriendsFamily <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 16 Feb 2015 14:00:10 -0500
List-Id: <CTRFriendsFamily.americanbridge.org>

*​**Correct The Record Monday February 16, 2015 Afternoon Roundup:*

*Tweets:*

*Correct The Record* @CorrectRecord; Happy #PresidentsDay
<https://twitter.com/hashtag/PresidentsDay?src=hash>  [2/16/15, 10:14 a.m.
EST <https://twitter.com/CorrectRecord/status/567341319467855873>]

*Headlines:*

*MSNBC: Will a Hillary coronation crown the GOP nominee too?
<http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/will-hillary-coronation-crown-the-gop-nominee-too>*

“While the former secretary of state hasn’t even said whether she’ll seek
the party’s nomination, her overwhelming dominance in polls, organization
and endorsements raises the question of whether the Democratic vacuum might
drag the Republican primary into its orbit – and even carry over into the
general election.”

*Associated Press: Potential 2016 Presidential Candidates Face A Big
Learning Curve
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/16/2016-presidential-candidates_n_6691892.html>*

“For now, Democrats can largely sit back and enjoy the GOP clatter because
expected candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton has the experience of the 2008
Democratic primaries on her resume and is expected to face little primary
opposition this time.”

*CNN: 'President' Hillary Clinton: Good for stocks?
<http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/16/investing/hillary-clinton-2016-stock-market/>*

“President Bill Clinton brought Wall Street arguably its best bull market
ever. There's historical precedent to believe Hillary -- or any Democrat in
the White House -- could deliver even more good times to investors."

*NBC News: 2016 Off To Slower Start Than Previous Cycles. Really.
<http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/2016-slower-start-previous-cycles-really-n305741>*

“At this point eight years ago (the last time there was a pending vacancy
in the Oval Office), most candidates had either already announced or were
days away from making their grand entrances into the presidential contest.”

*Articles:*

*MSNBC: Will a Hillary coronation crown the GOP nominee too?
<http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/will-hillary-coronation-crown-the-gop-nominee-too>*

By Benjy Sarlin and Alex Seitz-Wald

February 16, 2015 10:38 a.m. EST

The 2016 Republican presidential field is shaping up into a legendary
free-for-all, with polls showing the race wide open and more candidates
expressing interest by the day. Will it be Jeb Bush who consolidates
establishment support? Can Rand Paul or Ted Cruz break through with a
powerful grassroots coalition? Could Scott Walker thread the needle between
both sides? What about Marco Rubio?

And then there’s the Democratic side. Will it be Hillary Clinton who
prevails? Or will–actually, you know what, it will probably just be Hillary
Clinton.

While the former secretary of state hasn’t even said whether she’ll seek
the party’s nomination, her overwhelming dominance in polls, organization
and endorsements raises the question of whether the Democratic vacuum might
drag the Republican primary into its orbit – and even carry over into the
general election.

It’s a scenario that has veteran operatives from both parties talking in
early primary and caucus states, where a Clinton coronation could prompt
some less partisan voters to skip the Democratic contest and participate in
the more competitive Republican race.

“If Hillary Clinton is viewed as having the Democratic caucus in the bag,
Republicans will be vying for independents and other persuadable voters,”
Jeff Patch, a Republican strategist in Iowa and former state GOP spokesman,
told msnbc.

“It’s pretty typical if you don’t have a heavily contested election that
independents would be more interested in voting in a contested election,”
said Kathy Sullivan, the former chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party.

Politicos for the most part see true blue Democrats leaping to the
Republican side as an unlikely scenario, but the large, varied and poorly
understood group of undeclared and independent voters are another story. In
the right circumstances, a surge in participation could swing the race to
the candidate who courts them hardest.

Independents Day

The imbalance between the two parties would hardly be a first. After all,
it was just four years ago that a crowded Republican field hogged the
spotlight while President Obama went uncontested for re-election.

Republicans were hoping for a surge of interest and turnout in early states
versus 2008, when the prolonged Democratic primary ended up boosting that
party’s registration in key states and strengthening Obama, the eventual
nominee. The GOP surge didn’t materialize in most cases, but with one key
exception: Turnout did go up in states where independents could vote or
easily switch their party registration on the day of the race, suggesting
the lack of Democratic competition may have brought some crossover votes
with it.

These include the critical contests of Iowa, where voters can change party
registration at the caucus site on the day of the election; New Hampshire,
where undeclared voters can vote in either party’s primary; and South
Carolina, which has a fully open primary. In that state, 25% of GOP primary
voters described themselves as independents in 2012 exit polls, up from 18%
in 2008. In New Hampshire, the number jumped from 34% in 2008 to 47% in
2012.

Political analysts sometimes sneer at the notion of true “independents,”
saying many behave like partisans or are on the fringes of electoral
politics and hard to reach. In 2012, a significant chunk of tea party
conservatives traded in their “R” for an “I,” which lulled Mitt Romney
supporters into the false belief that their candidate’s lead with
independents showed he was winning swing voters.

But that doesn’t mean voters outside the traditional party bases aren’t
relevant, especially in a low turnout caucus or primary where even a small
number of surprise votes can swing the outcome. In Iowa, a record 122,000
people showed up to vote in the 2012 Republican caucuses – but they were
only about 19% of registered GOP voters.

“It’s a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy,” Ann Selzer, the pollster behind
the famed Des Moines Register survey, said. “If candidates go in thinking
the only way to win the caucuses is to turn out Christian conservatives,
than that’s how they campaign and that’s who shows up.”

That’s what happened in Iowa in 2008 and 2012, when Mike Huckabee and Rick
Santorum four years later rode social conservative support to victory. On
the Democratic side, however, Obama toppled Clinton in 2008 in Iowa thanks
to an intense organizing effort that enlisted thousands of new
caucus-goers, including independents. The then-Illinois senator won that
group in the caucuses by an 18 point margin over second-place finisher John
Edwards. It’s possible that in 2016, the right candidate could accomplish
something similar on the GOP side.

One Republican candidate in particular is building their campaign hopes
around this idea: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. “I think Rand Paul has an early
edge in trying to expand the Republican electorate,” Patch, the former Iowa
GOP spokesman, said.

The Kentucky senator’s father, former Congressman Ron Paul, finished a
strong third in Iowa’s 2012 caucuses while winning 43% of independents, and
a distant second in libertarian-heavy New Hampshire while also leading the
field with independents at 31%. The younger Paul has spent the last four
years pitching the GOP on attracting younger voters and minorities, even if
they’re in the other party’s camp, by promoting causes like sentencing
reform and protection from federal surveillance.

Doug Stafford, a senior Paul adviser, told msnbc Paul is “certainly well
positioned to reach out to Independents and Democrats, whether that is in a
primary or a general election,” in addition to Republicans.

Paul “seems to cross party lines, particularly with younger voters,”
Stephen Duprey, the former chairman of the New Hampshire GOP, told msnbc.

But while Paul has been most explicit about appealing outside the
Republican box, he’s not the only candidate who could benefit from an
inflated independent vote if they play their cards right. Duprey noted that
centrist Republicans have performed well in New Hampshire by targeting
independents, who made up close to half of GOP primary voters in 2012.

The most famous example is John McCain, who romped to an upset victory in
the Granite State over George W. Bush in 2000 thanks in part to a
staggering 41-point lead with independents. They played a big role in
McCain’s crucial 2008 South Carolina primary win as well in which he
narrowly defeated Mike Huckabee in part by winning independents by a
17-point margin. Perhaps someone like Jeb Bush could make a similar play to
offset conservatives upset with his position on Common Core education
standards and immigration reform.

Democratic Danger

Whether or not an individual Republican candidate can ride independent
support to victory, party officials are hoping a more competitive race will
give them an extended opportunity to make their pitch to persuadable voters
that carries over into the general election.

“I think theres a danger on the part of the Democrats in settling too early
and I think, quite frankly, that helps us,” Iowa GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann
told msnbc. “We have an electorate that’s still searching, and some of the
energy might carry over into the independents.”

Democrats are aware that contested primaries in swing states like Iowa and
New Hampshire may give the GOP a head start when it comes to organizing
voters. Primary campaigns invest months and millions of dollars on
identifying, persuading, and mobilizing voters on behalf of their
individual candidates, and all that work can end end up benefiting the
party’s nominee as well.

“Folks who turn out to vote in primaries are much, much more likely to turn
out to vote in the fall,” Josh Putnam, a professor of government at
Appalachian State University who runs election site Frontloading HQ, told
msnbc.

To confront this issue, Obama’s reelection campaign began preparing for the
2012 general election in 2011, using the remnants of his 2008 campaign and
the Democratic National Committee to pummel Republican frontrunner Mitt
Romney in early primary states and organize Democrats. When the primaries
did roll around, his campaign used them as a dry run to test
get-out-the-vote efforts ahead of the general election.

Clinton will still need to compete in those primaries, but she can take a
page from Obama in organizing early even if she doesn’t face a serious
challenger. It may be a tough task to keep voters’ interest in her
campaign, even though many will view her candidacy as a forgone conclusion,
but Democrats say she can stay relevant by varying her message as time goes
on, layering one rationale for a run on top of another.

Mitch Stewart, one of Obama’s top organizers from both the 2008 and 2012
campaigns, and current advisor to the pro-Clinton super PAC Ready for
Hillary, acknowledged the challenge, but said he’s not too concerned about
it. “If the Republican primary is more interesting, that doesn’t mean that
we’re doomed in the general election,” he said.

He recalled an example from his work during the 2004 election cycle for
Edwards in Iowa. President George W. Bush was running for reelection and
had no primary, so Republicans spent far less time organizing in the
state.  “In 2003, when I was in Iowa working on the caucus, there were five
or six [Democratic] campaigns actively working the states for the year, and
I remember leaving the state and thinking, there’s no way a Democrat will
lose in Iowa in 2004,” he said.

Bush ended up narrowly defeating John Kerry in Iowa en route to his
re-election.

*Associated Press: Potential 2016 Presidential Candidates Face A Big
Learning Curve
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/16/2016-presidential-candidates_n_6691892.html>*

By Nancy Benac

February 16, 2015 9:43 a.m. EST

If you're an aspiring presidential candidate, says professional crisis
manager Eric Dezenhall, right now is "a great time to take a pratfall
because it's so far away from anything major."

That's a good thing because so many of the candidates' feet have been
sliding out from under them.

The first six weeks of 2015 have featured mangled messages, snappishness, a
bad hire and other flubs from the Republicans who would be president.

It's pretty much to be expected in the earliest stages of a campaign with
just short of a gazillion potential candidates who haven't done this before.

In recent days:

—Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush cut loose a new hire with a history of
inappropriate comments about women, gays and blacks.

—New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul struggled to
strike the right tone on whether parents should have to vaccinate their
children.

—Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker caught flak for ducking questions and picking
a fight with the revered University of Wisconsin.

Candidates-in-waiting got peevish. They gave underwhelming speeches. They
tried to disavow their own words. And so on.

Do these responses sound like guys who are ready to be president?

Do you believe in evolution, Gov. Walker? "I'm going to punt on that one."

What about the Islamic State group, Gov. Christie? "Is there something you
don't understand about, 'No questions?'"

It's part of the long and brutal learning curve for a presidential race,
where even seasoned politicians find the scrutiny more intense than for
lesser offices.

Dezenhall calls this the season of "gaffe congestion" for would-be
candidates and says 20 months out from Election Day 2016 is a good time to
get them over with.

In an earlier time, even eight years ago or 12, none of this recent drama
would have been much more than a paragraph in the saga that is a
presidential race.

"Now, thanks to Twitter and the immediacy of political commentary, mistakes
are much more painful," says Ari Fleischer, a communications consultant who
was President George W. Bush's press secretary.

Still, he says, the best candidates will learn from their early stumbles
and quickly regain their stride.

Jeb Bush's team probably will check out future job applicants more
carefully. A less bombastic Christie was back working in Iowa not long
after snapping at reporters in London. Walker turned to Twitter to at least
explain, somewhat, his thinking on evolution after his refusal to answer a
question on the subject during his own trip to London became a distraction.

"Much of what's happening right now won't be remembered a year from now or
in a general election," says Stephanie Cutter, a veteran of Democratic
presidential campaigns for Barack Obama and John Kerry. She said part of
the problem may be that potential candidates don't yet have a full
complement of campaign staff.

But she also said that some of the recent commotion, such as the vaccine
flap, could signal a dynamic that will carry forward in the race as GOP
candidates try to cater to primary voters without tacking so far to the
right that it causes them trouble in the general election.

It's also clear that even if regular voters aren't tuned in yet, the
potential candidates are being sized up by donors, activists and potential
staff who will be crucial to helping them run an effective campaign.

Mo Elleithee, communications director for the Democratic National
Committee, predicts that some of the recent GOP missteps could turn out to
be particularly telling for voters in the long run.

Christie and Paul, with their bluster and argumentative interaction with
the press, are "letting people see who they really are," he said.

For now, Democrats can largely sit back and enjoy the GOP clatter because
expected candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton has the experience of the 2008
Democratic primaries on her resume and is expected to face little primary
opposition this time.

But Fleischer said even Clinton will have an adjustment to make if she
jumps back into the presidential mosh pit after eight years of "the paid
speaker's life, which is scrutiny-free, and the charmed life of a secretary
of state, where you're not covered in the same way you are in political
campaigns."

Dezenhall said one skill that candidates on both sides will need to learn
early on is damage control — both how to respond and what safely can be
ignored — because errors are inevitable.

"Politics used to be about where you stood," he said. "Now, it's about what
you stepped in."

*CNN: 'President' Hillary Clinton: Good for stocks?
<http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/16/investing/hillary-clinton-2016-stock-market/>*

By Patrick Gillespie

February 16, 2015 10:35 a.m. EST

President Bill Clinton brought Wall Street arguably its best bull market
ever. There's historical precedent to believe Hillary -- or any Democrat in
the White House -- could deliver even more good times to investors.

Overall, stocks perform better under Democratic presidents than Republican
ones, according to S&P Capital IQ.

In the last 100 years, the S&P 500 (SPX) had about a 12% median annual gain
during the tenures of Democratic presidents. Republican presidents only saw
a median rise of just over 5% a year.

Of course, any analysis comes with the large disclaimer that the past is no
predictor of future returns. But investors have started to take notice.

'90s throwback? President Clinton is in a league of his own when it comes
to stock market performance. The S&P 500 rose by a total of 210% during his
two terms, well ahead of any recent president. To put that in context, the
index has grown 160% since Obama took office.

There's hope that Hillary would bring more of the same.

"She would be very well received," by Wall Street, says Greg Valliere,
chief political strategist at Potomac Research Group. "There's a certain
comfort level there because of Bill."

Gridlock city: Hillary -- or any Democrat in the executive branch -- would
likely continue the gridlock between the White House and a Republican-led
Congress. Considering the opposition Bill faced from a GOP Congress, that
may not be a bad scenario for markets.

When Congress is split, the S&P 500 gains 10% a year with Democratic
presidents and 3% a year with Republicans presidents, according to data
from Standard & Poor Equity Research.

For better or worse, gridlock means no significant reforms to Wall Street.
Investors like that, says Valliere.

"The markets, in general, can live with gridlock," Valliere says. "They
pass less activist legislation."

Bush, Clinton compete on the Street: As the election nears, all the
candidates' policies will be in the spotlight.

The most formidable candidate competing for Wall Street's hearts, minds and
checkbooks so far is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. No stranger to Wall
Street, Bush recently quit a stint as an adviser to investment bank
Barclays.

Investors' views of any candidates could hinge on one big issue for
corporate America: cybersecurity, says Kristina Hooper, U.S. investment
strategist at Allianz Global Investors.

Almost 90% of CEOs say cybersecurity is their top priority this year,
according to a recent survey by investment bank Piper Jaffray. TurboTax and
Anthem can speak from experience.

"It is a huge issue now among corporate leaders," Hooper says.
Cybersecurity "is completely under the radar now for investors in terms of
the election [and that] could really come to the fore in the next 18
months."

How much does a president do? Of course, some point out that a president's
policies don't really drive the markets much. These days, every investor is
hanging on the words and actions of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, and
when the Fed decides to raise interest rates.

Love it or hate it, the Fed's stimulus program undoubtedly played a major
role in the U.S. economy over the past six years.

"Sometimes we ascribe more influence by administrations to the performance
of the economy and the financial markets than they really deserve," says Ed
Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, an investment strategy firm.

*NBC News: 2016 Off To Slower Start Than Previous Cycles. Really.
<http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/2016-slower-start-previous-cycles-really-n305741>*

By Shaquille  Brewster

February 16, 2015

It's President's Day, less than a year away from the first votes being cast
in the 2016 presidential race and just one major candidate has announced
his intention to formally launch a campaign through an exploratory
committee. At this point eight years ago (the last time there was a pending
vacancy in the Oval Office), most candidates had either already announced
or were days away from making their grand entrances into the presidential
contest.

Just look at what the political landscape looked like by President's Day
weekend in 2007.

For Democrats:

Mike Gravel announced in April 2006

Tom Vilsack (currently U.S. Agriculture Secretary) launched his candidacy
in Nov. 2006

Dennis Kucinich announced in Dec. 2006

John Edwards announced in Dec. 2006

Chris Dodd announced on Jan. 11, 2007

Hillary Clinton announced on Jan. 20

Bill Richardson announced on Jan. 21

Joe Biden announced on Jan. 31

Barack Obama announced on Feb. 10

Tom Vilsack was preparing to withdraw the next week to endorse Hillary
Clinton.

For Republicans:

Duncan Hunter announced on Oct. 30

Sam Brownback announced on Jan. 20

Mike Huckabee announced on Meet the Press Jan. 28

Mitt Romney announced on Feb. 13

Rudy Giuliani confirms his candidacy on Feb. 14

John McCain was preparing to announce on David Letterman on Feb. 28

In fact, many of the candidates listed above officially launched
exploratory committees well before their formal and ceremonial
announcements.

This year, Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb is the only major candidate to
say he is launching an exploratory committee (technically there are 165
federally registered 2016 candidates race).

"Whether people are formally declared—or not—isn't the whole story here,
they're running anyway"

Despite the formal announcements, staffs are growing, donors are being
locked down, and book tours and trips to Iowa and New Hampshire are
increasing. A glance at the speakers at the Republican cattle calls last
month—or the one coming up in March— will show a list of "likely"
candidates giving policy speeches and openly working to build support.

Instead of creating the exploratory committees, these "likely" candidates
have launched their own fundraising groups that allow them spend money for
political activities. Out of the major candidates, 15 potential republicans
and two democratic candidates have announced forming these Leadership PACs
or 527s.

University of Maryland Government and Politics Professor David Karol
studies elections and agrees this election cycle is developing slower than
previous years, but warns that's not the entire picture.

"Whether people are formally declared—or not—isn't the whole story here,
they're running anyway," Karol explained to NBC News.

"I think if Jeb [Bush] is going around making speeches on key issues,
getting reported on by you guys, talking to Republicans in key states,
then" Karol continued, "he's out there and people know he's out there."