Subject: [big campaign] New Huff Post from Creamer -- Vote Against Health Care Bill a Political Mistake
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To: [email-masked], [email-masked]
Date: Fri, 13 Nov 2009 09:16:36 EST
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10  Reasons Why Democrats Who Opposed Health Care Bill Made a Political  
Mistake 

Even if you completely ignore how critical it is to reform the broken  
American health care system, most of the 39 Democrats who voted against health  
care reform in the House last week made a political mistake.  Here’s why: 
1). The most basic reason is that  the major elements of the bill are 
popular in the districts of the members who  voted no.  
For instance, the firm of Anzalone Liszt recently released the results of  
a poll it conducted in 91 Democratic Blue Dog, Rural Caucus and Frontline  
districts (those most vulnerable to Republicans).  The poll found that 54% of 
the voters in  these battleground districts support the choice of a public 
option.  Provisions like ending the ability of  insurance companies to deny 
coverage based on pre-existing conditions have over  80% support. 
What’s more, many voters in the districts of Members of Congress who  voted 
no have particularly large numbers of downscale working class voters who  
are uninsured at some point in any given year – and would qualify for 
subsidies  under the bill.  The more they learn  about the bill, the more they will 
like it.   
2). Once the bill is passed it  will become even more popular.  Social 
Security, Medicare, and child labor laws were all controversial  when they were 
first passed.  Now  they are all revered features of the American landscape. 
The same will be true  of the health insurance reform that makes health 
care a right for all Americans.  
By Election Day a year from now, the elements of health care reform will  
be even more popular in these districts than they are today.  The only 
problem will be that the  Democratic Member representing the district will have 
voted on the wrong side of  history. 
3). As former President Bill  Clinton noted in his comments to Senate 
Democrats, history shows clearly that  the party that nationalizes the mid-term 
elections is far more likely to emerge  victorious.  Nationalizing the  2010 
mid-term election means running a national campaign that focuses on the  
successes and plans of the Obama Administration and Democratic Congress.   
If the job picture has begun to improve, and the Congress passes the bulk  
of the Obama legislative program, the Democratic message will be very  
strong.  If it does not, next  November 2nd will be a very long night. 
The Members of Congress with the biggest stake in the party’s success  
nationalizing the election are the most vulnerable members – a number of whom  
voted against the bill last week.  If the popularity of the President and 
Democratic brand go south because  of the party’s inability to pass health care 
reform (as it did in 1994), these  are the Members most likely to be 
looking for another line of work.   
Just as a rising tide raises all boats, so a receding political tide  
leaves those in the shallowest political water aground.  
4). If Democrats are successful  at passing their agenda and nationalizing 
the Mid-terms – which would otherwise  be terrific news for the most 
vulnerable Members – the Members who voted no on  the health care bill will look 
like skunks at the garden  party. 
When President Obama tours the country to promote the Democratic record  to 
swing voters and to mobilize our base, it will be hard for him to say, “And 
 now that you’re convinced and excited, go cast your ballot for the guy who 
voted  against our program.” 
5). In next year’s  elections, marginal Democrats desperately need 
highly-motivated Democratic  voters to turn out to the polls.  It’s hard to inspire 
the base, if you voted against the program they  supported.  
In last week’s Virginia and New Jersey Governor’s races,  Republicans were 
much more likely to vote than Democrats.  Many of the voters who came out 
to  support President Obama in 2008 simply didn’t bother to vote.  If that 
happens again in 2010, many  marginal Democrats are toast.  
Among other things, my political consulting firm organizes  
get-out-the-vote programs.  I can  tell you firsthand that it is a lot easier to motivate 
volunteers and voters to  support someone who is a fighter for the causes 
people care about than it is for  candidates who are scared of their own 
shadows. There is a lot you can do to  turn out voters with good organization.  
But to really spur turnout you need to inspire voters.  And, to build 
get-out-the-vote  organizations, you need to inspire volunteers and party activists. 
 Neither happens when candidates vote  like Republicans.  
In almost all of the districts where Democrats voted against the health  
care bill, it is particularly important to mobilize young people – and in most 
 cases, African Americans.  These are  the two groups that most intensely 
support health care reform – and President  Obama. 
Remember, in 2010 President Obama will not be on the ballot.  Voters will 
have to be inspired to turn  out by the local Congressional and Senate 
candidates. 
6). News flash to Democrats who  voted against the health bill: not one of 
the “tea party” gang is going to  support you in 2010.  Whether  you voted 
yes or no, they are all going to work their hearts out for your  opponent.  
The “tea party” gang you  saw at your town meeting in August does not 
represent swing voters in the  district – they are the hardcore base of the 
Republican Party.   
Instead of worrying about them, better to worry about inspiring your own  
highly-motivated volunteers and activists to compete with them.  Voting 
against health care reform is not  the way to do that.  The same goes  for 
grassroots donors. 
7). Whether or not marginal  Democrats voted for the health care bill, they 
will be held personally  responsible for that bill – and the entire Obama 
program – by the Republicans in  the next election. 
When I was sixteen years old, it snowed in my old hometown of Shreveport, 
Louisiana during Mardi Gras week.  They shut the schools, so my pal and I  
took the train to New  Orleans to explore the wonders of Mardi Gras.   
As I wandered wide-eyed down Bourbon Street one night the hawker at a  
strip club gave me a real lesson in life.  He said, “Come on in sonny, they’re 
going to say you did anyway.”   
That’s exactly what will happen to every Democrat in the Mid-terms.  The 
best way to prepare for that  politically, is to stand up proudly and support 
the Democratic program – not to  slink around in a defensive crouch.  
It’s much better politically to present a clear contrast to the  
Republicans than to try to be “Republican Lite.”  In general, if people want to vote 
for a  Republican, they will vote for the real McCoy – not a weak imitation. 
 
8). Voters like fighters. As  a political consultant, I have worked in 
districts all over America -- with  a host of other political consultants.  I 
can tell you for certain that political consultants, as a class, are  
notoriously risk-averse and – unfortunately -- often completely  nearsighted.  Many 
of them think  that today’s controversy will look the same way on Election 
Day, and they are  generally wrong.  
Worst yet, they often advise their clients to keep their heads down, and  
to avoid making waves.  Generally I  have found this to be horrible advice.  
On the whole, swing voters – and certainly mobilizable voters – like  
fighters.  They like candidates who  have strong beliefs, and stick by their 
guns.  That quality is an independent variable  in deciding how persuadable 
voters cast their ballots.   
Not long after the 2004 election, I was in a New Jersey taxicab.  The 
driver was a typical male New Jersey cabbie.  “So what do you think of Corzine?” 
 I asked. “Oh, Corzine, tough guy.  Like him,” he replied about the  
then-Senator. 
“What do you think of Bush?”  I asked.  “Like him too.  Tough guy.  Stands 
up for what he believes,” came  the answer. 
“What about Kerry?”  I  asked.  “Kerry?  Can’t stand him.  Flip-flopper.” 
  
“How about  Hillary Clinton?”  I asked.  “Tough gal.  I like her,” he 
said. 
Ideology, policy  positions – none of that mattered to this cabdriver who 
liked Corzine, Clinton  and Bush.  He wanted a tough,  committed leader.  But 
the  Republicans had sold him on their core message – “John Kerry is a  
flip-flopper.” 
It’s generally very hard to hide or finesse your core beliefs, and  because 
swing voters are often more concerned with whether you have  strong beliefs 
than the content of those beliefs, it’s usually a bad idea to  try. 
9). Even if the economy begins to  improve, the electorate in 2010 is 
likely to be angry.  In that kind of environment, the  candidate with the most 
populist message has a huge leg up.   
At its heart, the health care issue is a battle between the interests of  
average Americans, and health insurance companies.  It’s a contest between 
everyday working  people and insurance CEO’s who make $12 million a year (that 
would be $5,769  per hour). It is a classic battle between the interests of 
Wall Street  investors and Main  Street health care consumers. 
The polling is clear: it’s great politics in any one of these swing  
district to stand up to health insurance companies.  It’s a terrible idea to cozy 
up to Daddy  Megabucks, the Health Insurance Tycoon. 
10) Finally, one of the most  important rules in political life: if, as an 
office holder, you believe that  there are political downsides to either 
side of a vote in Congress, you are  always politically better off defending 
the decision you believe in.   
I’ve talked to many Members of Congress who told me that they would like  
to vote for health care reform, but are afraid to take on the political  
opposition. 
All Members of Congress are going to have to defend their health care  
votes.  Instead of bobbing and  weaving – instead of voting one way and 
believing another – politicians are  almost always better off defending the side of 
the argument that they believe in  their hearts is right. 
It’s bad politics not to,  because in the end the voters cast their ballots 
for the character qualities  they see in the candidates much more than 
anything else. 
Americans United for Change has put out a wonderful ad that summarizes in  
30 seconds the reasons why voting against health care reform is bad  
politics.  You can see it on  Youtube.com at: Bad Politics. 
And remember, each of the 39  Democrats – and all but one Republican -- who 
voted against the health care bill  have one more chance to redeem 
themselves.  When the bill comes back from the House-Senate Conference there will be 
 one more up or down vote on health care reform.  Before then, let’s all do 
everything we  can to convince them that in this case, it’s good politics 
to do what is  right. 
Robert Creamer is a long-time  political organizer and strategist, and 
author of the recent book: “Stand Up  Straight: How Progressives Can Win,” 
available on _amazon.com_ 
(http://www.amazon.com/Listen-Your-Mother-Straight-Progressives/dp/0979585295/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1206567141&sr=8-1
) . 

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