Subject: [big campaign] New Huff Post from Creamer - The Democratic Path to Victory in the House
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To: [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked]
Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2010 23:50:20 -0400 (EDT)
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The Democratic Path to Victory in the  House 

Most of the punditry continues to assume that the die is cast – that  
Republicans will win control of the House this fall.  Certainly that outcome is 
entirely  possible.  But there is a Democratic  path to victory next Tuesday. 
  
Fivethirtyeight.com currently portends that there are 152 solid  Democratic 
seats, 174 solid Republican seats, 29 seats that are leaning  Democratic, 
42 seats that are leaning Republican and 42 toss-ups.  Fivethirtyeight.com’s 
Nate Silver gives Democrats only 17% odds of winning 218  votes. 
MSNBC and Pollster.com give Democrats only a 21% chance to maintain  
control of the House.  They rate 193  seats as Democratic, 212 Republican and 30 
as toss-ups. 
If you believe these and other handicappers, Democrats face long odds on  
Tuesday.  But let’s remember that  even if your odds of success are one in 
five – they are not zero in five.  People line up to play casino games with  
worse odds every day.  Some walk  away winners. 
But to beat the odds and win, Democrats must be successful at four key  
tasks over the next five days. 
1). Democrats and their allies  must be successful at turning out larger 
than expected numbers of Latino  voters.  Polls show Latino  voters breaking 
65% to 70% Democratic, but their turnout in most Mid-terms falls  well below 
both non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black voters.   
Democrats have made a major effort this year to increase Latino turnout,  
especially in California, Nevada, Arizona,  New Mexico, Colorado, Illinois 
and  Florida.  Republicans have done everything they  can to suppress the 
Latino vote, going so far as to set up a front group to run  ads to actually 
discourage Latinos from going to the polls.   
But so far it appears the mobilization resulting from the Arizona “papers 
please”  law and Republican talk of repealing the 14th Amendment may couple  
with on-the-ground GOTV efforts to increase levels of participation well in  
excess of 2006 turnout.   
That increase would be critical in a number of key races.  It is especially 
necessary in swing  seats occupied by incumbents Raul Grajalva, Solomon 
Ortiz, Ciro Rodriguez, John  Salazar, Dina Titus, Jerry McNerney, Bill Foster, 
Debbie Halvorson, Suzanne  Kosmas, Alan Grayson and Allen Boyd.  
2). Democrats need to successfully assure that two key issues are on the  
minds of the voters at the close of the race: Social Security, and 
outsourcing  jobs.  
The Republicans plan to revive the failed Bush proposal to privatize  
Social Security.  The “Road Map”  plan by would-be GOP Budget Chair Paul Ryan 
would also eliminate Medicare and  replace it with vouchers for private 
insurance companies.  These positions are radioactive to older  voters.  No 
wonder, the Social  Security Administration’s own actuarial study confirms the 
Ryan proposal would  cut benefits by up to 58%.  
Polls show that this issue has enormous traction to move swing voters and  
it has taken center stage especially in the many swing districts that have 
an  abundance of older voters. 
Swing voters – especially in districts in the industrial heartland like  
Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania and upstate New York have a deeply 
ingrained understanding  that major corporations have been systematically 
outsourcing their jobs to  countries where they can pay their workers less than a 
living wage.  And it makes them positively furious  that Republicans oppose 
cutting tax breaks that actually encourage these  companies to export their 
jobs.    
Both the Social Security and outsourcing issues put the Republicans on  the 
defense and go directly to the concerns of everyday voters about their  
economic futures.  Both also frame  the debate correctly.  They both  define 
the antagonists in the narrative as Democrats and everyday Americans  versus 
Republicans and big corporations and insurance companies.  
To win next Tuesday, Democrats need to keep these two issues front of  mind 
for swing voters as they go to the polls.  That is especially true in 
districts  defended by incumbents such as Mike Ross, Gabrielle Giffords, Jim 
Himes, Debbie  Halvorson, Baron Hill, Mark Schauer, Tim Walz, Carol Shea-Porter, 
Dina Titus,  Bill Owens, Kurt Schraeder, Steve Kagen, Earl Pomeroy, Chris 
Murphy, Pat Murphy,  Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, Kathy Dahlkemper, Charlie 
Wilson, Zack Space, Steve  Driehaus, Tom Periello, Rick Boucher, Health 
Schuler, Bruce Braley, Mary Jo  Kilroy, Dave Loebsack, Mike Arcuri, Chris Carney 
and John Hall.   
In each of these seats the issue on the minds of the voters can move  
points on Election Day.  Social  Security and outsourcing must be front and 
center. 
3). In many districts it is  especially important that Democrats are 
successful in emphasizing the strong  personal relationship of voters – especially 
older voters – with their Member of  Congress.  And they must also be 
successful at  disqualifying the alternative. 
Democrats must make the election a choice – not a referendum on  Democratic 
performance.  In the end,  people vote for people. When they get down to 
making their choice on the ballot,  it is critical that they remember the 
personal qualities that they like in  Democratic incumbents and feel that the 
alternative is risky. There are many  districts where this factor can make a 
decisive difference.   
In some districts occupied by long-time incumbents, the constituent  
service operation has directly helped tens of thousands of district residents.  
That builds loyalty.  
In others, Members have developed deep networks of personal relationships  
with leaders of key constituencies.   
To win next week, Democrats need to engage all of those relationships and  
all of that personal loyalty, and contrast it with the risky Republican  
alternative. 
Districts where these factors can be especially important are defended by  
colorful incumbents with strong personalities such as John Spratt, Ike 
Skelton,  Lincoln Davis, Nick Rahall, Rick Boucher, Paul Kanjorski, Baron Hill, 
and Barney  Frank (whose seat is really not in play).  
Democrat Joe Garcia has an excellent chance of winning in Florida’s 
predominantly  Cuban American 25th District on the strength of his strong  
relationships in the community, a flawed Republican alternative and also a  robust 
get out the vote operation. Which gets us to the fourth point.  
4). First and foremost, for  Democrats to beat the odds next Tuesday, our 
get out the vote operations must  function flawlessly. Basically, these 
operations must defy the “likely  voter” models that have dictated the gloomy 
scenario in most polls.  
There is little question that between the Democratic Congressional  
Campaign Committee (DCCC), the DNC’s Organize for America (OFA),  the individual 
campaigns, and Democratic  allies like AFSCME, AFL-CIO, SEIU, MoveOn.org, 
USAction, NEA, Center for  Community Change, et al, Progressives are conducting 
the most effective Get Out  the Vote (GOTV) effort of any Mid-term in 
history. Many Latino, African American  and women’s organizations are also 
conducting special programs targeting their  communities. 
Many of the veterans of the Obama campaign – which ran the most effective  
GOTV program in American history – are deeply involved. The culture and 
systems  developed by the Obama field structure will go a long way to creating 
well  oiled, efficient GOTV organizations.  Well organized coordinated 
campaigns are  functioning in key states, focusing heavily on early voting and 
mail vote in  many, and this accounts for a robust showing by 
Democratic-registered voters in  many states. And they all plan massive 72-hour voter contact 
drills and Election  Day operations to run votes.  
Democrats are relying heavily on door-to-door contact, while Republicans  
use paid phone calls and mail.  But  studies show conclusively that 
door-to-door contacts are far superior to phones  and mail.  
Over the next five days,  Democrats have to deliver in the field if they 
intend to upset the odds.  We must make millions of door-to-door  and phone 
contacts.  We must  repeatedly contact voters who would vote Democratic, but 
our unlikely to  vote.  We need to explain to these  voters how critical it 
is that they vote.  And we need to deliver that very effective Election Day 
message: “I won’t  get off your porch until you vote!” 
Everyone, no matter where you live can increase Democratic effectiveness  
in getting out the vote. Pick up the phone and call your local campaign,  
Democratic Party, your union, or MoveOn.org.  Volunteer to go door to door or 
get on  the phones.   
We know from  research that the more we contact mobilizable voters, the 
more likely they are  to vote.  You don’t have to  “persuade” them, you just 
have to contact them.  You just have to get their attention,  and the 
likelihood they’ll vote goes way up.  
And if you don’t live where there is a critical campaign, you can still  
get involved.  OFA and MoveOn both  have programs that allow you to call 
voters in swing states from the comfort of  your own home.  
To volunteer, go to _OFA.BO/GOTV_ (http://ofa.bo/GOTV) 

To call swing districts: _Call.BarackObama.com_ 
(http://call.barackobama.com/) .  That will  automatically give you a targeted list of voters in a 
swing  district. 
To volunteer with  MoveON with a campaign near  your home, go here: 
_www.moveon.org/2010_ (http://www.moveon.org/2010)   
If you want to call  from home, go here: _pol.moveon.org/2010_ 
(http://pol.moveon.org/2010)  
If you want to go to a  MoveOn campaign event, go here: 
_pol.moveon.org/event/lastchance_ (http://pol.moveon.org/event/lastchance)  

So there is no excuse.  YOU  can personally affect the outcome of these 
elections. 
Still don’t believe you can  make a difference? 
In 2000, our consulting firm was doing the field program for Democrat  
Elaine Blum for Congress in South Florida.  We had an excellent operation.  But 
we lost the race by 500 votes.  That was roughly one vote per  precinct. 
That was the same 500 votes that cost Al Gore the Presidency – and gave  us 
the nightmare of George Bush’s presidency – the Iraq War – massive 
deficits –  and the 2008 economic disaster.  
If our field program had gotten out one extra vote per precinct, none of  
that would have happened. Frankly, that keeps me up nights. 
Wednesday morning, don’t say to yourself, “wow, we only lost the House by  
one seat – and only by a few votes – and I could have changed  that.” 
There is a pathway for  Democratic victory, but it requires we hit on all 
four of these key  cylinders.  Too much is at stake to  allow any stone to 
remain unturned. Pick up the phone as soon as you finish  reading this.  We 
have five days to  change history. 
Robert Creamer is  a long-time political organizer and strategist, and 
author of the recent book:  “Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win,” 
available on _amazon.com_ 
(http://www.amazon.com/Listen-Your-Mother-Straight-Progressives/dp/0979585295/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1206567141&sr=8-1
) . 

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