Subject: [big campaign] New Huff Post from Creamer-Why Democrats Will Maintain Control of the House
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Date: Mon, 18 Oct 2010 00:49:11 -0400 (EDT)
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Two Weeks Out – Nine Reasons Why Democrats Will Keep Control of the  House 

With two weeks to go  in the 2010 mid-term elections there are a number of 
good reasons to believe –  contrary to most conventional wisdom – that 
Democrats will still control the  House once the smoke clears from the electoral 
battlefield. 
For the last several  years Nate Silver, of fivethirtyeight.com, now owned 
by the New York Times, has  become the gold standard for projecting 
electoral outcomes.  For some time, Silver has projected that  Democrats would lose 
control of the House and maintain control of the Senate.  Though he quotes 
an 82% odds that Democrats will continue to control the Senate,  he currently 
gives daunting 73% odds of Republican takeover in the House. He  says that 
the consensus forecast has converged on the loss of 50 Democratic  House 
seats, which would give Republicans enough seats to control the  gavel.  Not so 
good,  right? 
But that’s not  the end of the story. Silver qualifies his projections with 
a major caveat.  Saturday, he wrote: 
However, there is considerable uncertainty in the  forecast because of the 
_unusually large number_ 
(http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/10/number-of-competitive-house-races-doubles-from-recent-years/)  of House 
seats now in play. A gain of as  large as 70-80 seats is not completely out of 
the question if everything broke  right for Republicans. Conversely, if 
Democrats managed to see a material  rebound in their national standing over 
the final two weeks of the campaign,  they could lose as few as 20-30 seats, 
as relatively few individual districts  are certain pickups for Republicans…
.. 
In many of the in-play  seats the Republican margins that have been used to 
project a big Republican win  are very narrow.  Even a subtle  shift in the 
overall political atmosphere over the next two weeks could cause a  major 
shift in outcome.    
Silver himself  predicts that if things continue on the current trajectory, 
Democrats will end  with 207.7 seats -- about ten seats shy of a majority. 
But there are more  than enough seats on bubble to make up the difference. 
Among the most important  seats held by Democratic incumbents that could go 
either way are: Salazar, CO-3;  Grayson FL-24; Titus NV-3; Herseth-Sandlin 
SD-AL; Pomeroy, ND-AL; Kagen WI-8;  Kissell, NC-8; Davis, TN-4; Acuri, NY-24; 
Hall, NY-19; Foster, IL-14; Schauer,  MI-7; Marshall, GA-8; Mitchel, AZ-5; 
McNerney CA-11; Owens NY-23.  And there are more. 
Among the most  important seats held by Democratic incumbents that could go 
either way are:  Salazar, CO-3; Grayson FL-24; Titus NV-3; Herseth-Sandlin 
SD-AL; Pomeroy, ND-AL;  Kagen WI-8; Kissell, NC-8; Davis, TN-4; Acuri, 
NY-24; Hall, NY-19; Foster,  IL-14; Schauer, MI-7; Marshall, GA-8; Mitchel, AZ-5; 
McNerney CA-11; Owens  NY-23.  And there are more.  
There are a number of  reasons to believe that -- contrary to the “consensus
” view -- Democrats will in  fact protect their House majority: 
1). The Pew Research Center released a  study last week showing that most 
of the major polls being used this year poll  only voters with landlines – 
not cell phones.  It notes that the increasing reliance of  many Americans – 
particularly young people – on cell phones as their only  telephone 
introduces an increasing pro-Republican bias into many polls.  
In reporting on the  Pew Poll, Mark Blumenthal of Huffington Post’s 
Pollster.com  wrote: 
Pollsters have been reluctant  to sample and call Americans on their cell 
phones, partly because it costs more  and partly because federal law requires 
hand dialing any call placed to a cell  phone, which makes such calls less 
efficient and puts cell phone polling off  limits to automated survey 
methodologies.   
For the last four years, the  Pew Research Center has conducted public 
opinion  surveys involving separate, parallel samples of both landline and 
mobile phones.  Their design allows for a comparison between combined samples of 
landline and  cell interviews and samples based only on landline calls.   
Before the 2008 election, they _found_ (http
://pewresearch.org/pubs/1061/cell-phones-election-polling)  that calling only landline phones introduced a 
"small but real" bias in  favor of John McCain, an average bias of 2.3 
percentage points on the margin on  nine national surveys conducted between June 
and October of that year.   
This year, according to  today's report, the Pew Center finds that sampling 
only landline  phones creates an even bigger bias -- "differences of four 
to six points on the  margin" - in favor of the Republicans. 
2). For many weeks Republicans and their  allies have enjoyed a major 
advantage over Democrats in overall communication  volume, due mainly to the 
unlimited corporate spending allowed by the Citizens  United Case.  But over the 
next two  weeks there will be increasing parity of the levels of 
communication swing  voters will hear from the two sides.  This will be true both 
because when you have less money you spend it when  it matters most – at the 
end; and because the value of marginal increases in  persuasion communication 
diminishes as the volume goes up.   
Republicans and their  allies have a big advantage if voters hear their 
messages ten times to the  Democrats’ two.  That advantage  diminishes 
enormously if voters hear Republican messages 30 times and Democrats  25.  
In other words, once  Democratic levels of communication reach a critical 
level, Republicans will no  longer have an effective advantage even if they 
keep dumping in more and more  money. 
3). The natural tendency to throw  incumbents out in the face of 
wrong-track environment is tempered by potential  risk of unknown – especially in the 
face of extremist alternatives.  It’s one thing to get angry at a lousy  
economy and decide the time has come to throw the incumbents out.  But after 
taking a close look at the  alternative in the next two weeks, some fraction 
of voters will decide that the  risk they represent is just too great.   
The bad economy  definitely inspires anger among voters, but a bad economy 
also engenders an  increased level of caution.  That is  true not only in 
individual races where specific Republican candidates will  receive harsh 
scrutiny, but in the general political dialogue as the extremist  views of the 
129 Tea Party candidates come more sharply into  focus. 
Candidates who want to  phase out Social Security and Medicare, replace the 
progressive income tax with  a flat tax or national sales tax and abolish 
the Department of Education do not  represent mainstream alternatives to 
Democratic incumbents. They are risky  alternatives. 
4). Over the next two weeks, expect the  White House and Democratic 
surrogates to bear down on Republican proposals to  privatize Social Security and 
phase out Medicare, and their support for  outsourcing jobs overseas.  
Polling shows these two issues are enormously powerful symbols for the  
fundamental fact that Democrats are on the side of everyday people and  Republicans 
are on the side of Wall Street.  They move votes. And the Social Security  
issue is especially important for moving senior citizens who have disaffected  
from Democrats back into the Democratic fold. 
5). Democrats have begun to see success in  their efforts to use political 
jujitsu in turning around the advantage of  massive corporate spending for 
Republicans into a political liability. The  charges about the use of foreign 
money recruited by the US Chamber of Commerce  -- including money from 
firms that benefit from outsourcing American jobs – have  begun to stick.  
Polling throughout the fall has shown that that the issue of corporate  
spending on elections has substantial political power. A SurveyUSA poll taken 
at  the end of August in 18 battleground states showed that seventy-seven 
percent of  voters overall, including 70% of Republicans and 73% of 
Independents viewed  corporate election spending as an attempt to bribe politicians 
rather than an  expression of free speech.   
A later study by  Greenberg and Associates 
_http://gqrr.com/index.php?ID=2515_ (http://gqrr.com/index.php?ID=2515) ) 
showed similar results and concluded that  pushing back on corporate 
influence is key to establishing trust and credibility  with voters on issues like 
the economy and jobs.   
6). There are increasing odds that  Democrats will take five or perhaps six 
Republican seats (DE-AL, IL-10, FL-25, LA-2, HI-1, and perhaps  CA-3).  
That would require the  Republicans to take 43 or 44 additional Democratic 
seats to win control of the  House.  Additional surprises may be  in the offing 
in the race for Dave Reichert’s seat in Washington’s 8th CD, and even 
Michele  Bachmann’s seat in Minnesota 6.  
7). The “enthusiasm gap” has begun to  close. On Friday, Professor Michael 
McDonald of George Mason University  reported on data showing that in Iowa 
almost 120,000 ballots have already been  cast and registered Democrats are 
returning their ballots at a substantially  greater rate than Republicans 
(so far a 5 to 3 ratio) in every Iowa  county. 
A major survey  conducted by The Washington Post, Henry J. Kaiser Family 
Foundation and Harvard  University found that 80% of black Democrats are as 
interested or more  interested in the mid-terms than they were in the 2008 
presidential election  when their enthusiasm helped propel Barack Obama to the 
Presidency.  According to a recent Gallup poll, President  Obama has an 87 
percent favorability among African Americans, and appeals to  defend his 
Presidency by voting in the mid-terms are meeting a receptive  audience. The 
First Lady and the President have hit the airwaves of black radio  and TV. The 
DNC recently increased its commitment to advertising aimed at black  voters 
and launched a radio spot by civil rights leader Joseph Lowery that links  
Dr. Martin Luther King’s struggle with this fall’s elections.  “In 2008 we 
changed the guard,” he says,  “This year we must guard the change.” 
The MTV/BET slogan for  this fall is “Do it Again in 2010.” 
Latino turnout will  also likely exceed the expectation of most pundits and 
pollsters.  Their level of engagement has been  raised by the anti-Latino 
Arizona “papers please” law and proposals by  Republicans to repeal the 14th 
Amendment.  In addition many immigrant rights and  Latino organizations 
have committed substantial resources to major voter  mobilization efforts over 
the next two weeks.  The effects will be particularly  pronounced in the 
many swing districts located in Colorado, Nevada,  California, Arizona, New 
Mexico,  Illinois, New  Jersey, Texas, New York and Florida.  But Latino voter 
turnout could also effect races in less traditional  areas like Virginia and 
North  Carolina. 
And as the choices facing  the country between a House led by John Boehner 
and Paul Ryan, and one led by  Nancy Pelosi become clear, Progressives who 
might have been disappointed in the  outcome of some battles during the last 
18 months have begun to rally.  MoveOn.org is conducting a major program of 
voter mobilization and advertising  aimed especially at the Progressive 
base, and a wide array of unions and other  progressive organizations have begun 
major campaigns aimed both at the  memberships and the voters at large.  
8). Get Out the Vote (GOTV) operations  conducted by Democrats will have 
much greater marginal value than those  conducted by Republicans.  They  could 
make all the difference in the many districts teetering on the brink.   
Republicans are much  more prone to rely on paid telephone contacts and 
mail.  Democrats rely first and foremost on  door-to-door contact.  Studies of  
GOTV operations have shown that one knock on the door within 72 hours of 
the  election can increase turnout by 12.5% -- a second by almost as much.  
All other things being equal, a live  phone contact increases turnout by only 
2.5% to 3%.  
The Democratic  Congressional Campaign Committee’s major commitment of 
resources to robust  door-to-door based GOTV operations will change the outcome 
in a large number of  districts.  That effort will be  reinforced by the 
unprecedented work of Organize for America (OFA) – the Obama  political 
organization. 
And, since Republicans go  into the closing weeks of the election season at 
a higher level of mobilization,  the dollars put into GOTV contact will 
have a proportionately greater impact on  Democratic levels of mobilization and 
turnout.  Democrats will find it easier to change  outcomes by harvesting 
low-hanging fruit among their infrequent voters than  Republicans, since 
pollsters have already assumed many of these voters will  participate in the 
election. 
9). The President is out on the political  stump – and that will change the 
national political atmosphere.  It’s hard to tell just yet how big his  
influence will be, but it won’t take much change in the atmosphere to tip a  
large number of races into the Democratic column.   
President Obama’s  appeals will work both to mobilize “Obama” voters from 
2008 and to persuade  swing voters who need to be reminded that their 
families – and  America – will be more likely  to succeed if we once again 
embrace the belief that the best of  America is ahead of us.  
This year has been a  season of unhappiness, disappointment and anger.  
That anger is certainly justified by the  greed and recklessness that led Wall 
Street, the insurance companies, big oil  and the nation’s wealthy few to 
take actions that jeopardized the future of  everyday Americans.   
Republicans have  tried to redirect that anger toward “government” in 
general and Democrats in  particular.  The President will no  doubt do a great 
deal to keep the focus on the fact that the policies of the  Republicans and 
their Wall Street friends ran the economy into the ditch, and  now they want 
us to give them back the keys.  But he will also point the way forward  by 
appealing to hope not fear, and to the premise that we’re all in this  
together, not all in this alone. He will work to revive the “yes we can” spirit  
that infused the campaign in 2008 and is so essential to America’s  success 
in the future. In the end that kind of leadership – together with great  
execution at every level of our campaigns – may very well assure that when the 
 battle is done, Democrats still hold onto the big gavel that will be used 
to  call the house to order in January of next year. 
Robert Creamer is a long-time political  organizer and strategist, and 
author of the recent book: “Stand Up Straight: How  Progressives Can Win,” 
available on _amazon.com_ (http://www.amazon.com/Listen-Your-Mo
ther-Straight-Progressives/dp/0979585295/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1206567141&sr=8-1
) . 

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