Subject: [big campaign] New Huff Post from Creamer-4 More Reasons Dems will Retain Control of Congress
From: [email-masked]
To: [email-masked], [email-masked]
Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2010 09:38:43 EDT
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Four More Reasons Why Democrats Will  Retain Control of House and Senate 

Over the last  several weeks, the Pollster.com average of polls testing the 
generic choice of  Republican versus Democrat for Congress has begun to 
close from a spread of  almost 5% down to only 2.3% advantage to Republicans.  
If the present trend continues,  Democrats will soon take the lead. 
That trend is  just one more indicator that the momentum in the battle to 
control the two  houses of Congress has begun to shift.  This trend will 
accelerate in the five weeks remaining until Election  Day.  There are four 
particularly  important reasons why: 
1). The gap in daily spending between Democrats and Republicans will  
close.  
The effect of the Citizens United  case – and the disproportionate 
advantage of corporate-backed outside groups has  been substantial over the last few 
weeks. Some days the advantage to the right  has been on the order of 10 or 
15 to one. But that advantage will diminish as  Election Day approaches.  
Campaigns  and independent expenditure committees with finite amounts of 
money put first  priority on spending during the weeks closer to the election 
when undecided  voters tend to make their decisions.   So spending by 
Democrats and their allies will accelerate every week  until the election. 
Even if, as expected, the Republicans and their supporters continue to  
spend more than Democrats in key races, the relative value of each dollar spent 
 will decline dramatically as total spending on communication rises.  If a 
voter sees a right-wing spot six  times and a spot for Progressives only 
once, the Right has an enormous  advantage.  But if a voter sees a  Republican 
spot 25 times and a Democratic spot 20 times, the relative value of  the 
five-spot Republican margin diminishes enormously.  
What’s more, in some races, Democrats and their allies are already  
matching Republicans.  Last week in  Illinois, of  the $1.5 million spent on 
television in the U.S. Senate race, Democrats spent  $700,000 ($500,000 from the 
Giannoulias Campaign and $200,000 from the  Democratic Senate Campaign 
Committee) and Republicans spent $723,000 ($363,000  from the Kirk Campaign, and 
$360,000 from American Crossroads, the corporate  attack fund organized by 
Karl Rove).  
2). Voters are beginning to focus  on the choice facing them between 
specific living, breathing candidates – not  “generic” ballots.  That contrast  
will not be good for Republican chances. 
In 1994, the Republicans caught Democrats off guard.  Not this time.  
Democrats have done their home work,  learning every detail about their 
opponents.  And their task has been helped along by  the Tea Party’s successful 
efforts to promote incredibly flawed candidates in  many Republican primaries.  
The New York Times reported on  Sunday that Democrat campaigns have pulled 
the trigger on a long-planned  strategy to take the offensive and use this 
ammunition to define their  opponents.  
In the past, Republicans could sometimes count on Democrats to run  
milquetoast campaigns.  This time  they are coming out with all guns blazing. 
Congresswoman Betty Sutton (D, OH-13) is going after her opponent, car  
dealer Tom Ganley, defining him as a “dishonest used car salesman” who has 
been  sued more than 400 times for fraud, discrimination, lying to customers 
and  overcharging them.  
The NYT reports that in Arizona, Congressman Harry Mitchell (D, AZ-5)  
accused his opponent, David Schweikert of being “a predatory real estate  
speculator who snatched up nearly 300 foreclosed homes, been cited for neglect  
and evicted a homeowner on the verge of saving his house, just to make a  buck.
” 
And it reports that Representative Mike Arcuri (D, NY-24) has introduced  
his opponent to the voters as a millionaire who “got rich while his 
construction  company overcharged taxpayers thousands, was sued three times for 
injuries  caused by faulty construction and was cited 12 times for health and 
safety  violations.” 
In Wisconsin’s 8th CD, Democrat Steve  Kagen  has unleashed ads showing his 
 opponent, roofing contractor Reid Ribble, on tape saying he wants to “
phase out  Social Security.”  
In races across the country, Democrats will give voters the opportunity  to 
examine Republicans in gory detail – up close and personal -- before 
Election  Day.  Voters will be able to examine  their beliefs and proposals – and 
their personal values.  Make absolutely no mistake that the  Democratic 
Congressional and Senate Campaign Committees, and most campaigns,  have every 
intention of taking the offensive in personalizing these races and  making the 
choices before the voters crystal clear. 
3). President Obama has switched  into campaign mode. At the national level 
President Obama, who has the biggest  bully pulpit in the country, will use 
every means to define the choice before  American voters. 
Obama’s team has decided – correctly – to personify this choice in the  
person of Republican Leader John Boehner – with a little dash of Paul Ryan and 
 his “Young Gun” associates, Congressmen Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy.   
Over the last few days they have  made Swiss cheese of the Republican’s 
most recent wet noodle attempt to revive  the famous “Contract with America” 
that helped propel them to  victory in 1994.  In particular they  have 
challenged Republicans to “promise” to stop outsourcing American jobs – a  
subject on which their “promise” is appropriately silent, given their opposition  
to Democratic moves to eliminate corporate tax breaks for jobs shipped 
overseas.   
The Administration, Democratic leadership and progressive organizations  
will continue to ramp up campaigns to focus attention on Republican plans to  
privatize Social Security and replace Medicare with vouchers.  They will 
hammer at Republican plans to  repeal the Wall Street reform bill that reined 
in the power of the big Wall  Street banks whose recklessness cost eight 
million Americans their  jobs. 
Democrats will force the Republicans to defend their attempts to hold  
middle-class tax cuts hostage in order to provide a $700 billion tax break to  
millionaires and billionaires – which is, after all, one of the Republican 
Party  leadership’s primary goals. 
And just as important, President Obama has begun to stump the country and  
rouse the sleeping Obama electorate. 
4). Perhaps most important, the  enthusiasm gap will close.   
In 1994 Democrats didn’t lose because voters disagreed with them on the  
issues.  They lost because  Republican voters went to the polls and Democrats 
stayed home. 
The current enthusiasm gap will close for two key reasons.  First, as 
Democrats – at all levels –  sharpen and repeatedly define the choices facing 
the country,  many occasional voters who have not been  paying close attention 
will begin to understand the consequences of these  elections.   
One important group will be Latino voters, who have decided to stand up  to 
the brazen attacks on Hispanics and their culture that have been spewing  
forth from Republicans across the country – from attempts to repeal the  14th 
Amendment, to support for the Arizona “papers please” law, to  last week’s 
united Republican opposition to even considering the “Dream  Act.”   
The “Dream Act” would allow undocumented kids, who were brought by their  
parents to the United  States -- through no fault of their own -- and  
raised here as Americans, to continue to get a higher education, serve in the  
military and apply for citizenship.   For years, some Republicans have 
supported the “Dream Act,” but were  unwilling to break with their leadership to 
support the bill last week when it  came up for a vote in the Senate.   
The same goes for gay Americans, who were denied a vote on ending “Don’t  
Ask, Don’t Tell” last week because of united Republican opposition:  
occasional voters from this community,  too, are beginning to more clearly feel 
the consequences of these  elections.   
The same is true for Muslims who, while they constitute only about 3% of  
American voters, have been pretty fired up by gratuitous exploitation of  
Islamaphobia by Republicans coast to coast.   
And the same is true for union members who increasingly understand that  
the economic policies of the Republicans are anti-union and anti-middle class. 
 
And increasingly the same will go for young people, African Americans and  
millions of other ordinary Americans who were inspired by the prospect of  
economic and political change in 2008, and don’t want to go back to the 
failed  economic policies that drove the economy off the cliff in the first  
place. 
But there is a second reason why progressive voters will wake up before  
Election Day.  For months,  Democratic campaigns have been preparing the most 
robust off-year Get Out the  Vote effort in American history.  
For example, last Saturday the Democratic Congressional Campaign  Committee 
(DCCC) had a National Day of Action that engaged volunteer-staffed  
canvasses in contested Congressional Districts across the country.  On that one 
day, volunteers knocked on  200,000 doors. 
Democratic candidates, the DCCC, Democratic Senate Campaign Committee and  
President Obama’s field organization – Organize for America  -- will have 
serious field programs in virtually all in-play Congressional  Districts and 
every in-play Senate state.  Those field programs will contact millions of 
voters before Election Day,  encourage vote-by-mail and vote early programs 
and ultimately make millions of  door knocks on Election Day itself.   
My consulting firm participated in a study several years ago that showed  
that one door to door contact within 72 hours of Election Day increased the  
propensity to vote by 12.5%.  A  second one in the same period increased 
turnout almost as much.   
These contacts will be supplemented by major member to member campaigns  
launched by organized labor and organizations like MoveOn.org.   
The message from candidates, the President and leaders of important  
Democratic constituencies like Latinos and labor about what is at stake in this  
election will do a lot to increase turnout.  But so will the old-fashioned 
message:  “I won’t get off your porch until you vote.” 
In the end, Republicans would have to take ten Democratic seats to gain  
control of the Senate and 39 Democratic seats to take over the House.  
Christine O’Donnell’s victory in the  Delaware Republican Primary makes it 
almost impossible for Republicans in the  Senate to take control of the 
gavel. 
In the House, it is likely that Democrats will gain five  
currently-Republican seats: DE-AL, IL-10,  FL-25, LA-2, and HI-1.  That would  mean that to 
take control of the House, Republicans would have to win forty-four  
currently-Democratic seats.  Even  with a huge surge at their back, that would be a 
real lift; more so because the  polls show Republicans are actually regarded 
favorably by 6% fewer Americans  than are Democrats. There is no clamor for 
Republican leadership abroad in the  land – and no charismatic Republican 
leader who appeals to a broad cross section  of Americans.  
A district by district analysis shows Democrats doing better than  
Republicans in many swing districts. 
Five weeks from Election Day, many of the pundits have already written a  
script that calls for a big Democratic defeat November 2.  But if Democrats 
drive hard to the  finish, if we stay on the offensive and make this election 
a choice, and if we  do everything in our power to turn out every 
Democratic vote, the pundit’s  script will never make it into the actual annals of 
American history.  Instead it will be filed away in the  fiction section where 
it belongs.  
Robert Creamer is  a long-time political organizer and strategist, and 
author of the recent book:  “Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win,” 
available on _amazon.com_ 
(http://www.amazon.com/Listen-Your-Mother-Straight-Progressives/dp/0979585295/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1206567141&sr=8-1
) .

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