Subject: [big campaign] New Huff Post from Creamer-Why Dems will NOT be routed in November
From: [email-masked]
To: [email-masked], [email-masked]
Date: Wed, 8 Sep 2010 09:20:25 EDT
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Time for the Pundits to Take a Deep Breath –Why Democrats  Will Not be 
Routed In November 

Two years ago today, just two months before the 2008 Election,  John McCain 
led Barack Obama for President in the  compilation of national polls 
assembled by Pollster.com.  The Democratic polling project at  Democracy Corps had 
McCain up by two points.  As everyone knows, on Election Day Obama  beat 
McCain 53% to 46%.  A lot can  change in 56 days. 
Time for the pundits and prognosticators to take a deep breath.  Despite 
all of their dire predictions of  Democratic demise, the Republicans have not 
yet seized control of either chamber  and I, for one, predict that they won’
t any time soon.   
Democrats will certainly take losses in the coming Mid-terms.  But the odds 
are good that they will  emerge from the elections with working majorities 
in both houses.   
No one doubts that pulling the economy out of the massive ditch into  which 
it careened under George Bush has, and continues to be, a Herculean  task.  
It is, of course, a task that  has been made much more difficult by the 
virtually unified opposition of  Republicans to Democratic initiatives to 
energize the economy.  Two years of economic pain have made  voters unhappy. 
And this difficulty is compounded by the natural tendency of voters to  
turn out Members of Congress from the President’s party in the first Mid-term  
after his inauguration.  
However, six major factors will work to limit Democratic  losses. 
1). The voters do not view Republicans as the  answer to America’s 
problems. And in fact, a  late August NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that they 
actually have a less favorable view of Republicans than  Democrats. 
It is true that only 36% viewed Democrats positively compared with 43%  who 
view Democrats negatively.  But  a mere 30% view Republicans positively 
compared with 43% who view them  negatively.  
In the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, voters were split down the middle (43% 
to 43%) as to whether they  preferred Republican or Democratic control of 
Congress. There is every  indication that this will be the Republican high 
water mark as voters begin to  focus in on the race and Democrats begin to 
introduce them -- and their beliefs  -- to their Republican opponents. 
2).The Republicans’ major  institutional allies are viewed with even more 
approbation than the Party  itself. The economy has made voters sour on 
elites of all sorts. They are  furious with Wall Street (10% positive to 53% 
negative), Corporate America (12%  positive to 42% negative), and the Health 
Insurance Industry (12% positive to  56% negative).    
If Democratic candidates do their job of connecting their Republican  
opponents with their base constituencies, their support will plummet.  
The critical issue for Democrats is to establish that they are populist  
outsiders, not elitist insiders.  That dynamic is much more important in the 
coming election than whether a  candidate is a Republican or Democrat.  
3). There is not a large-scale inclination  among voters to reject 
progressive-Democratic values and adopt  conservative-Republican values in their 
place.  When the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll asked if  Government should do 
more, or whether it is doing too many things, voters  divided evenly 47% to 
47%.   When presented a core Democratic  and core Republican message, the same 
number of voters (25% ) found the  Democratic message very convincing as 
those who found the Republican message  very convincing.  
4). Elections are not simply referenda on the  state of the country or the 
economy.  They are choices between two candidates.  In a generic context, 
voters can be  angry and dismissive about a current officeholder if they are 
unhappy with the  current state of their lives.  But  if Democrats do their 
jobs right, each race will be turned into a choice between  two living, 
breathing people.  The more that voters focus on the  Republican alternative, the 
less abstract that choice will become – the more  they will become 
acquainted with the qualities of the alternative.  Whereas once they might have been 
happy  to throw the incumbent out, they will become increasingly focused on 
the fact  that he or she will be replaced by someone else who has negatives 
of his  own. 
Voters cast their ballots for people – not concepts.  One of the big 
advantages for Democrats  this cycle is that many Republican nominees are 
politically inexperienced  radical extremists whose views – once voters learn them –
 are completely outside  of the mainstream of American politics.  
The best known  are Tea Party-Republican Senate candidates like Sharron 
Angle in Nevada who wants to replace Medicare with vouchers for  private 
insurance, Rand Paul in Kentucky who  opposes the 1964 Civil Rights Act, Joe 
Miller in Alaska who wants to phase out Social Security, and then  there is the 
potential nominee in Delaware, Christine  O'Donnell, who opposes 
masturbation. 
And there are many  lesser-known House candidates who are just as extreme 
in their views – and who  have no economic program other than the proposals 
that were put in place by  President Bush, that yielded the worst economic 
collapse in sixty years and cost  eight million Americans their jobs.  
Some of the positions  these candidates take are downright radioactive.  
The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that  only 21% of voters were either 
totally enthusiastic or comfortable with  privatizing Social Security, whereas 
68% were either very uncomfortable or had  some reservations about it – a 
difference of 47%.  And feelings were intense.  Forty-nine percent said they 
felt very  uncomfortable about privatization, while only 9% were 
enthusiastic.   
As they come to know  these people – and their views, and other negatives 
that will be exposed in the  course of the campaign -- many of voters who 
might have considered voting  against a Democratic incumbent in the abstract 
will reconsider.   
What’s more, many  Democrats begin with sizeable positives with voters that 
they have developed  over many years of constituent services, and personal 
relationships.   
Republicans were almost  certain they would take the southwest Pennsylvania 
12th CD in the special  election last May after longtime Congressman Jack 
Murtha died.  But in the end Democrat Mark Critz  defeated Republican Tim 
Burns 53% to 46% -- largely on the strength of the  personal relationships he 
had developed over years of working on the Murtha  district staff.  
You see the same thing  in many districts that are in play – or were 
expected to be in play – this  November: 
* Democrat Mike Arcuri  in NY-24 leads Republican challenger Richard Hanna 
by 13 points in a Benenson  Strategy Group poll. 
* Congressman Tom  Perriello – who represents the tough VA-5th CD that went 
heavily for  McCain -- is tied with his Republican rival.   
* Representative Larry  Kissell of North  Carolina --who was considered a 
political dead man  walking – leads Republican challenger Harold Johnson by 
12 points in a Greenberg  Quinlan Rosner Research poll. 
* An Anzalone Liszt  Research poll shows Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is 
leading Republican challenger  Kristi Noem by 9 points in South  Dakota, where 
Social Security has emerged as a big issue  in the race. 
* Democrat Travis  Childers leads his challenger Alan Nunnelee by five 
points in Mississippi’s  conservative 5th CD. 
* A Greenberg  Quinlan Rosner Research poll shows Democrat John Adler 
leading his opponent,  John Runyan, by a whopping 17 points. 
* A Lake Research  Partners poll shows Oregon’s Representative Kurt 
Schrader leading  Republican Scott Bruun by 11%. 
* North Carolina’s Heath Shuler leads his challenger by 17%  in western 
North  Carolina’s 11th CD.   
* Alabama’s Bobby Bright  leads Republican Martha Roby by 9% according to 
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner.   
* A Garin-Hart-Yang  Research poll shows Chad Causey in a dead heat with 
Republican Rick Crawford to  win Northeast Arkansas’s 1st  CD. 
* Democrat Rick  Boucher of southwest Virginia leads his opponent by  23%. 
* And Jason Altmire of  western Pennsylvania leads Keith Rothfus by a 
massive  27% according to Anzalone Liszt Research.  
* In some districts  Republicans are hampered by late primaries.  In 
Wisconsin’s 8th CD, for instance,  Republicans will battle until next week to 
decide who takes on Democratic  Congressman Dr. Steve Kagen.  Kagen  has had a 
well oiled campaign operation in place for months and a sharp populist  
message that resonates with the sprawling Greenbay and Appleton based  district. 
Democrats will also  likely capture a number of formerly Republican and 
open seats in  November. 
* Democrat Dan Seals leads his Republican opponent Robert Dold by 13% in  
the Republican seat left vacant when Republican incumbent Mark Kirk decided 
to  abandon his suburban Illinois seat to run for  Senate. 
* Democrat Joe Garcia  is poised to win Florida’s 25th CD  after incumbent 
Mario Diaz-Balart decided to run in a neighboring seat after his  brother 
Lincoln  decided to retire from the seat.  Garcia made a strong challenge to 
Mario Diaz-Balart last cycle – and has  a well-organized campaign with a 
robust field operation.  What’s more he faces an opponent who has  been accused 
in a police report of running a direct mail delivery truck off a  busy 
expressway to prevent it from meeting a mail deadline at the post  office.  It 
seems that the mail he  did not want delivered, in a previous campaign for 
State Assembly, accused him  of domestic violence. 
* In Illinois 13th  CD, Democratic challenger Scott Harper is given a 
chance to beat long-time  incumbent Judy Biggert, who has soft support among the 
suburban district’s  voters.  A Global Strategies poll  shows Biggert an 
early favorite, but after one comparative paragraph describing  the two 
candidates, Biggert falls behind and never catches up.   
* In New Orleans’ predominantly  African American 2nd CD, accidental 
incumbent Joseph Cao, who came to  office after Congressman Bill Jefferson’s 
conviction in Federal Court, will  almost certainly be defeated by Democrat 
Cedric  Richmond. 
* Many pundits have  written off the rest of Louisiana where Barack Obama 
did not score  well in 2008.  But Ravi Sangisetty  may prove them wrong in 
Louisiana’s 3rd CD, where the  combination of a large African American 
population and white Democrats is more  than adequate to allow him to succeed, 
Democrat Charlie Melancon, who is now  running for the Senate.  And while  polls 
show Melancon behind incumbent Senator David Vitter, recall that the  
sitting Senator has spent more than a little time explaining proclivity to  
utilize the services of prostitutes.  
5). The enthusiasm gap between Republicans and  Democrats will almost 
certainly narrow.  
Many  commentators point to the “enthusiasm gap” that indicates that 
Republican base  voters are more likely to turn out than Democrats.  That gap 
will narrow as it becomes  increasingly clear to base Democratic constituencies 
what is at stake in the  election.  
Progressives will  become more and more engaged as they understand the 
consequences of a big  business, radical right victory in the fall. 
African Americans will  be especially energized by the attack on the first 
African American  President. 
Hispanic turn out will  be turbo-charged by the outrageous disrespect shown 
the Hispanic community by  Republicans who propose the elimination of the 
14th Amendment to keep  Hispanic children from becoming citizens  -- and the “
papers please” law passed by Republicans in the Arizona  legislature. 
Young people will step  up as they see the specter of the Empire Striking  
Back. 
And turnout will be  boosted by far superior Democratic Get  Out the Vote 
operations being mounted by the Democratic  Committees. 
6). Democratic  Campaigns will be better organized and in many cases have 
more  resources. 
Under Michael Steele,  the Republican National Committee is a mess.  While 
the Republican Senate and House  Committees are better organized, both have 
been hamstrung by their dependence on  the RNC. 
The Democratic  National Committee has been well managed and includes Obama’
s Organize for  America (OFA) operation that has been systematically 
reaching out to first time  Obama voters for months. 
The Democratic  Congressional Campaign Committee has one of the best field 
operations in years  and is staffed with highly-skilled political 
operatives.   
The Democratic Senate  Campaign Committee is also well organized and has 
been blessed with extremist  Tea Party candidates that can be introduced in 
all of their blazing glory to the  voters in the 56 days that remain. And in 
most cases, Democratic Senate  candidates have the financial muscle to 
deliver their  message. 
The Bottom  Line 
It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.   
While Democrats and  progressives have a great deal to do in the next two 
months; while we should be  ever mindful of the tragedy that could befall us 
if we let down our guard; I  believe that Democrats will emerge from the 
November elections in much better  shape than the doomsayers and 
prognosticators are predicting.   
In 1994 Democrats were  caught flat-footed by the Republican onslaught. We 
were completely unprepared to  mount a defense. 
This year there is a  danger that the opposite will be true – that fear and 
defeatism turn into  self-fulfilling prophesies.   
Voters don’t support  losers.  They don’t support  candidates or parties 
who are always on the defense.   
To make certain we win  this fall, Democrats have to shake off the 
doomsaying, and take the  offensive.  If we act like winners,  we’ll win November 
2nd.    
Robert Creamer is a  long-time political organizer and strategist, and 
author of the recent  book:  Stand Up Straight: How  Progressives Can Win, 
available on _Amazon.com._ 
(http://www.amazon.com/Listen-Your-Mother-Straight-Progressives/dp/0979585295/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1213241439&sr=8-1
)  

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