Subject: [big campaign] New Huff Post from Creamer - 3 Fatal GOP Mistakes that Could Spell Defeat Next November
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Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 23:55:34 -0500 (EST)
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Three Fatal Republican MistakesThat Could Spell Their Defeat Next November
 
      The weathermanon TV describes it everyday.  “A coldfront will pass through our area tomorrow afternoon and with it, a major windshift.”
 
     Historians mayone day pinpoint the last several weeks as the time when the front passed --and the political winds shifted decisively.
 
     The combinationof Governor Scott Walker’s proposal to strip middle class union members oftheir rights to have a seat at the table in determining their wages and workingconditions – and the draconian cuts in services to average Americans promotedby Republicans in Congress – have caused a fundamental shift in American publicopinion and political momentum. 
 
     Three majorRepublican political mistakes have contributed mightily to their sinkingpolitical fortunes, and they could spell disaster for their candidates nextNovember.
 
     First, Republicans forgot the fundamentaltruth that it is much more difficult to take something away from people thatthey already have, than to prevent them from getting something for which theyaspire. 
 
      It’s one thingto campaign against the possibility of better health care – or againstlegislation that would restrain the power of banks to sink the economy.  It’s quite another to propose measures thatwould cut someone’s pay, eliminate their power to bargain, or slash servicesthat benefit everyday Americans-- even worse to propose cutting Social Securityor Medicare.   Those kinds of proposalsare downright personal.  They really makepeople angry. 
 
      Nothing changesa political calculus like “facts on the ground.”  That’s why the Republicans are crusading sohard to prevent the Affordable Health Care Act from being implemented.  Once it’s in force, millions of stakeholderswill form a political army that will prevent it from ever being repealed.
 
      For the yearafter Medicare was passed in 1965, support was pretty lukewarm.  Once people started benefiting, supportskyrocketed.  Now, of course, it’s theRepublicans (who actually opposed Medicare) who tried to convince seniors thatthe Affordable Health Care Law would cut their Medicare benefits – which ofcourse it did not. 
 
      During thehealth care battle, Republicans banked heavily on the fact that those whoaspired to get health insurance would not be as well organized or as vocal asthose who feared that the law might cause them to lose the health coverage theyalready had.  Their entire strategy wasbased on building fear among the vast majority who had insurance or Medicare. That is one of the reasons why it was so difficult to pass health carereform.  It’s also why -- even thoughDemocrats won the battle to pass the bill -- we, temporarily at least, lost thewar for public opinion. 
 
    Had a public option– or Medicare buy-in for those under 65 – been part of the measure, a largenumber of people would have been vested with benefits much sooner than the 2014effective date, when most of the other benefits take effect.  It simply would not have taken four years toconstruct a system that allowed people below 65 to buy in to Medicare, which ofcourse is an on-going concern. That would have increased levels of publicsupport for the law much more rapidly, and is one of the reasons Republicansfought these provisions so doggedly. 
 
      Of course thereare, in fact, many Americans who already benefit from the health care law –including hospitals full of sick kids who are no longer subject to the insuranceindustry’s outrageous lifetime caps or limitations on coverage for pre-existingconditions.  And more and more of thepublic is coming to realize that Republican claims that the law would degradetheir current benefits are simply deceitful propaganda. 
 
      But the fact isthat most historic changes in the political wind have happened as a result ofmajor political battles that involved actual or perceived attempts to take awayconcrete benefits already enjoyed by a large segment of the electorate.  
 
      The game-changingbattle that turned the tide after the Republican sweep of 1994 involved theRepublican shutdown of the Government and their attempt to cut Medicare andMedicaid.  After the disastrous Bushre-election of 2004, the winds shifted toward Democrats when Bush tried to privatizeSocial Security.  The health care battle– and the perceived attempt by Obama to undermine current health care benefits– set the table for the Democratic defeat in 2010.  Of course, the financial collapse that costmillions of Americans their pensions and jobs closed the door on anypossibility that the Republicans who presided over the disaster could defeatBarack Obama in 2008.
 
      The Republicanshave forgotten this important history lesson. Take away things that peoplealready have and you’re in for a world of trouble.
 
     Want to know howcompletely they’ve forgotten this lesson? Just last week, House Speaker John Boehner actually told the Wall Street Journal that his budget willattempt to cut Social Security and Medicare. This, in spite of polling that shows virtually zero support among thevoters.  There will be a firestorm ofopposition.  Go right ahead, John, makeour day.
 
     Second, the Republicans have forgotten theall-important political principle, that you can’t believe your own spin.  That’s especially true if you spend all ofyour time talking to the small group of people who agree with you. Take theHouse of Representative’s newly-elected Tea Party Caucus.  This insular crew talks to each other –repeats each other’s slogans – listens to FoxNews and has convinced themselves that most Americans agree that governmentspending is the worst thing since murder and mayhem. 
 
     They have talkedthemselves into actually believing that the “American people” sent them toWashington to cut back on the “massive growth” of the federal government andcut spending at all costs.  This was, ofcourse, never the case.  The Republicanswon in November mainly on the strength of a protest vote from an electoratethat was furious that the economy had not improved – that there were not enoughjobs. 
 
      But now that theRepublicans have begun to propose concrete cuts to important public services,their view of what the “American people” want is completely disconnected fromreality. 
 
     Last week’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed thata 51% to 46% majority says the government should do more, rather than less. Fifty-six percent say that jobs and economic growth should be thegovernment’s top priority compared to 40% who rate deficit reduction that way. 
 
    By 54% to 18%,Americans do not believe that cuts in Medicare are necessary to reduce thedeficit. Forty-nine to twenty-two percent say cuts in Social Security are notneeded.  Fifty-six percent say cuts inHeadstart Programs are “mostly” or “totally unacceptable.”   Seventy-seven percent say the same of cutsin primary and secondary education. Majorities also call unacceptable cuts todefense, unemployement insurance, student loans, and heating assistance to low-incomefamilies.
 
     On the other hand,while Republicans rail against increases in taxes – even for the rich, awhopping 81% favor placing a surtax on people who make more than a milliondollars.  Sixty-eight percent want to endthe Bush tax cuts on those who make over $250,000. 
 
     An overwhelming77% support the right of public employees to collective bargaining.  
 
     To top it off, a Rasmussen(Republican) poll shows Wisconsin Governor Walker’s positives dropping to 43%,and his negatives soaring to 57%.
 
     The winds haveshifted – and because they believe their own spin, many Republicans have yet tonotice.
 
     Bottom line isthat these guys think they’re flying straight and level, and they’re really ina steep dive.
 
     Third, the Republicans have failed to learnthat you can tell people that up is down, and black is white, for only so long.  Or to paraphrase one of the founders of theRepublican Party: “You can fool some of the people some of the time, but youcan’t fool all of the people all of the time.”
 
     Over and over, the Republicans have repeatedtheir mantra that we need to “cut spending” in order to create jobs.  Now, it is certainly true that controllingthe nation’s long-term deficit will benefit the economy in the long haul. Youcan even make a case that when government debt begins to sop up lots ofavailable credit, it can be a drag on private sector investment and growth. Butno reputable economist agrees that cutting spending now – as we are just emerging from a recession – will createjobs.  Just the opposite.
 
      Companies aresitting on two trillion dollars of cash. There is no shortage of capital for expansion.  There isa shortage of economic demand.   Businesses invest in new plants and equipmentand hire new workers when there are people out there demanding their productsand services. 
 
      That’s whyeconomists like Mark Zandi, of Moody Analytics, who was an economic adviser toJohn McCain’s presidential campaign, issued a study last week showing that theHR1 – the Republican spending bill for this year -- would destroy 700,000 jobs.
     
     That’s whyGoldman Sachs – hardly a left-leaning economic institution – issued a reportsaying that the Republican budget plan will knock 2% off this year’s GDP, whichwould do real damage considering that the Government expects the GDP toincrease only 2.7% this year. 
 
     And the public isbeginning to get the picture.  Thepolling shows that voters want investments that actually do increase long-term growth – investments in education, researchand infrastructure – that will allow us to win the future.  
 
      American voters are a pretty smartgroup.  If they are presented a choicebetween recklessly slashing the budget on the one hand, and investing to assurethat our kids will have more opportunities than we do, they choose the futureevery time.   After all, what Americans really want is tofeel confident that together we can once again reclaim the American dream.
      
Robert Creamer is a long-timepolitical organizer and strategist, and author of the book:  Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win,available on Amazon.com.

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