Subject: Searching for Hillary Clinton's big idea
From: Dan Schwerin <[email-masked]>
To: John Podesta <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 08 Jul 2014 20:23:50 -0400

Jon, curious for your take on thisŠ

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/hillary-clinton-2016-elections-108594.
html

Searching for Hillary Clinton¹s big idea
By DAVID NATHER <http://www.politico.com/reporters/DavidNather.html>  |
7/7/14 5:07 AM EDT Updated: 7/7/14 9:45 PM EDT

Here¹s one thing you won¹t find in Hillary Clinton¹s book: a clear reason to
run for president again.
The ³Hard Choices² book tour has had all the trappings of a warm-up for
2016, and even though Clinton insists she hasn¹t decided yet, she keeps
dropping hints that she has ideas for the future of the country. ³You¹ve got
to ask people who want to run for anything, but particularly president,
what¹s your vision? What is your vision for our country, and do you think
you can lead us there?² Clinton said at a CNN ³town hall² forum.
But if Clinton has a big idea for 2016, the book ‹ all 596 pages of it ‹ is
not the place to look for it. Policy experts in the Clinton orbit say that¹s
not the right way to read the former first lady¹s latest tome ‹ it¹s mostly
a foreign policy memoir, and any hints of other themes, like the advancement
of women and climate change, are there to wrap up the issues she has already
worked on throughout her career.
But any campaign has to have a big idea it¹s wrapped around, and that means
Clinton still has to spell one out ‹ assuming she has one in mind.
(Also on POLITICO: Inside POLITICO: Maggie Haberman on the Hillary book tour
<http://www.politico.com/multimedia/video/2014/07/inside-politico-maggie-hab
erman-on-the-hillary-book-tour.html> )
If Clinton gets into the race, the pressure will be on to make clear what
she would actually do in the White House and what she thinks will be the
unfinished business after eight years of Barack Obama¹s presidency. Any
Democratic nominee would have the same problem: It¹s especially challenging
to follow a president of the same party and make the case that you¹d really
provide something different. But the problem would be especially tough for
Clinton since she served in the Obama administration ‹ and since she¹s
already talking about the need for a policy ³vision.²
The early consensus in Democratic circles is that Clinton¹s best bet is a
campaign about the economic challenges that will remain after Obama¹s
presidency, either income inequality ‹ which Clinton is already mentioning
with increasing frequency ‹ or the general problems of the middle class,
according to interviews with a dozen Democratic strategists and policy
thinkers.
That¹s the best way for her to play to her strengths, the strategists and
policy experts say, since she has been talking about income inequality for
years and can also talk about the economic growth that helped middle-class
Americans during Bill Clinton¹s presidency.
She¹d have to decide which issue should get more weight, since that¹s one of
the biggest simmering disagreements among Democrats. The more populist ones
think inequality is the bigger issue right now, and Clinton herself has been
talking about it more than she used to. But the centrists and some Bill
Clinton alums say the middle class is more important ‹ and the former
president is reminding Democrats not to overlook middle-class concerns,
saying in a speech 
<http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/bill-clinton-income-inequality-108078
.html?hp=r9>  that ³the absence of social mobility is a far bigger problem
than income inequality.²
(Also on POLITICO: What we¹ve learned from Hillary Clinton¹s book tour
<http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/hillary-clinton-book-tour-108571.htm;
l> )
She may be able to resolve that tension by nodding to both camps, as she did
at theAspen Ideas Festival
<http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/hillary-clinton-american-dream-iraq-a
spen-ideas-108465.html>  last week. Clinton sounded a populist tone, saying
Americans should ³feel they have a stake in the future and that the economy
and political system is not stacked against them.² But she also spoke to
more general, middle-class anxieties: ³Of course, you have to work hard. Of
course, you have to take responsibility. But we¹re making it so difficult
for people who do those things to feel that they¹re going to achieve the
American dream.²
Most Democrats believe voters will see the economy as the major unfinished
business of Obama¹s presidency, and they¹ll be looking for any ideas Clinton
can offer on how to speed up the economic recovery and improve the quality
of their lives.
³We survived the recession ‹ now, how do you get the economy from second
gear into third gear?² said Jim Kessler, senior vice president for policy at
Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank. He said there¹s ³no one better
in the Democratic Party² to lay out the next steps in 2016: ³She was part of
an administration that understood the economy extraordinarily well.²
Officially, Clinton¹s aides say she¹s not doing anything other than talking
about the issues she¹s always considered important. ³There¹s no candidate,
so there¹s no campaign, but the themes you are hearing are ones she has
cared about and worked on all her life, and always will,² said Clinton
spokesman Nick Merrill.
(Also on POLITICO: Hillary Clinton: ŒFees have been donated
<http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/hillary-clinton-public-speaking-fees-
108581.html> ¹)
But there¹s already a strong interest in how she¹d move the Democratic
agenda forward if she does jump in. And Clinton noted, almost as an aside,
at the Aspen Institute that ³I¹m thinking a lot about what we might do and
how we can do it.²
In many of these conversations with Democrats, there¹s a clear hope that
Clinton can re-create her appeal to white, working-class voters that she
displayed when she ran against Obama in 2008 ‹ a demographic that Democratic
strategists say the party must start winning
<http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/junejulyaugust_2014/features/beyo
nd_identity_politics050650.php?page=2>  in greater numbers.
That assumes, however, that Clinton will be able to shake off the
tone-deafness she has shown on the book tour with comments like the one she
made about being³dead broke²
<http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/hillary-clinton-financial-struggle-di
ane-sawyer-abc-107591.html>  ‹ and the Clintons¹ struggle to buy ³houses² ‹
and later, herinsistence
<http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/hillary-clinton-108162.html>  that
the Clintons ³pay ordinary income tax, unlike a lot of people who are truly
well off.²
³One of the big tests for her will be, is she in touch with ordinary folks?²
said Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, a former adviser to Bill Clinton.
³But it¹s so clear that this will be the main problem facing the country
that that will force her to be in touch. I think she¹ll welcome the chance
to do that.²
(Also on POLITICO: Hillary Clinton on Edward Snowden: ŒHis decision¹
<http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/hillary-clinton-edward-snowden-108579
.html> )
Some Democrats say she can make the case that economic growth is the single
best strategy to fight income inequality, based on her husband¹s record in
the 1990s. ³She had a ringside seat to what a growth agenda can do. It can
narrow wage and income gaps, and it will mitigate inequality,² said Will
Marshall of the centrist Progressive Policy Institute, a longtime adviser to
Bill Clinton who helped develop the ³new Democrat² ideas that shaped his
presidency.
³You can¹t go back and re-create the policies 20 years later. You need an
update. But she knows what prosperity looks like,² Marshall said.
Others argue that Clinton could adapt other longtime causes of hers ‹ such
as early childhood development and education in general ‹ as an entry point
to talk about the bigger themes of economic growth and inequality.
It¹s ³a major idea that¹s both economically and socially important and plays
to her strengths Š and is central for both economic growth and for reducing
inequality,² said Austan Goolsbee, a former chairman of the Council of
Economic Advisers in Obama¹s first term. ³It¹s a space that she¹s always
been identified with, and it¹s a contrast with the Republicans, who tend to
say the federal government shouldn¹t be involved.²
And Heather Boushey, executive director and chief economist at the
Washington Center for Equitable Growth, notes that Clinton has already
talked 
<http://www.newamerica.net/conference2014/keynote_by_the_honorable_hillary_r
odham_clinton>  about how the struggles of middle-income and low-income
families drive economic inequality. ³These issues are intricately
intertwined ‹ inequality and what happens to families,² Boushey said.
³Talking about these issues together ‹ and how they affect each other ‹ is a
compelling and logical next step.²