Subject: [big campaign] Recall polling in WI
From: Daniel Mintz <[email-masked]>
To: bigcampaign <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 10 Mar 2011 11:46:52 -0500
List-Id: <bigcampaign.googlegroups.com>

Rough morning to be Dan Kapanke or Randy Hopper

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2011/03/poll_majorities_support_recall.html

Poll: Majorities support recall of two Wisconsin GOP senators
By Greg Sargent

Here's something that could give some momentum to efforts to recall
Wisconsin GOP state senators in the wake of last night's end-run passage of
Scott Walker's measure to roll back public employee bargaining rights.

I've got an advance look at some new polling by Survey USA that finds solid
majorities in two GOP senate districts support the recall of their senators.
The poll was paid for by MoveOn, which obviously has an ax to grind in this
fight, but Survey USA is a respected non-partisan pollster that's routinely
cited by major news organizations.

Here are the numbers, sent over by a MoveOn official, in the districts of
GOP senators Dan Kapanke and Randy Hopper.

When asked if they would vote for Hopper or something else if a recall
election were held right now, 54 percent said they'd vote for someone else,
versus only 43 percent they'd vote for Hopper.

In Kapanke's district, the numbers were even worse: 57 percent said they'd
vote for someone else, versus only 41 percent who said they'd vote for
Kapanke.

It gets even more interesting. The poll was taken yesterday, before last
night's events, and fifty-six percent of voters in Kapanke's district, and
54% of voters in Hopper's district, said if their Senator voted for Walker's
plan, it would make them *more likely* to vote for someone else. Last night,
both Senators did vote for Walker's rollback of bargaining rights.

Survey USA surveyed 400 voters in the district of each Senator. In fairness,
this poll asks people to choose between their senator and an unnamed
opponent, when in reality they would face a real live human being in a
recall election. But this is how recalls work: First support needs to be
built up for the recall of an official, and once the key procedural hurdles
are surmounted, someone steps up in the role of challenger and is nominated
by the opposing party in what is effetively a special election.

This poll suggests that in two districts at least, support for recall is
already there, which is a good gauge of the intensity of grassroots anger at
Wisconsin Republicans and will only give momentum to efforts to gather the
signatures required to make the recalls happen.

*UPDATE, 11:34 a.m.:* A MoveOn official adds that the organization has
already raised over $800,000 to support the recall drives against GOP
senators.

-- 
**********
Daniel Mintz
Campaign Director
MoveOn.org Political Action
[email-masked]
718-576-2628
**********

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