Subject: ABC News: Rove's Latest Electoral Maps Have Clinton Stronger Than Obama
From: "David Brock" <[email-masked]>
To: [email-masked]
Date: Tue, 20 May 2008 12:09:56 -0400

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/05/roves-latest-el.html
 Rove's Latest Electoral Maps Have Clinton Stronger Than Obama Against
McCain

May 19, 2008 1:48 PM

Electoral maps put together by the consulting firm helmed by Karl Rove, and
obtained by ABC News, show Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, to be a stronger
general election candidate in a hypothetical general election match-up
against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., than Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois.

Click *HERE*<http://a.abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/McCainClintonObama051608.pdf>to
see the maps and charts from Karl Rove & Co., obtained by ABC News.

States are allocated in Rove's exercise based on an average of public polls,
which many pollsters would tell you is a rather unscientific way to look at
the data.

Still, for political junkies the information is interesting.

In the first map from Karl Rove & Co., McCain leads Obama in a hypothetical
match-up, winning states totaling 238 electoral votes to Obama's 221
electoral votes.

There are 538 total electoral votes. At least 270 are needed to win the
presidency.

The trend is positive for Obama -- he is up 14 electoral votes from May 11,
and McCain is down 13 electoral votes.

The map shows McCain winning Florida, New Hampshire, West Virginia and
Wisconsin. States with 79 electoral votes -- Connecticut, Colorado, Iowa,
Michigan, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia -- are
toss-ups, within a margin of error of +/- 3 points.

In the hypothetical Clinton-McCain match-up, Clinton leads with 259
electoral votes to McCain's 206 electoral votes.

States totaling 73 electoral votes -- Connecticut, Iowa, Michigan,
Minnesota, Missouri, and New Mexico -- too close to call.

Clinton, too, is trending upwards, with a gain of 11 electoral votes since
May 11.

The big differences between Clinton and Obama, beyond the her larger number:

Clinton would make competitive some states that Obama would lose -- such as
Missouri and New Hampshire -- and she would win others outright, such as
Arkansas, Florida, Ohio and West Virginia.

On the other hand, McCain would handily win beat Clinton in some states that
Obama made competitive, such as Colorado, North Dakota, and Virginia. Some
states that Obama would win, such as Minnesota and Nebraska -- Clinton would
lose to McCain.

Occasionally this election cycle the electoral maps of Karl Rove & Co. have
reared their heads. In March, McCain adviser Mark McKinnon was spotted
holding some of these maps,* as reported by Texas
Monthly*<http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/polldancing/?p=368>
.

- jpt

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