Subject: Re: WJC / Greece / Merkel
From: DMCOS <[email-masked]>
To: "[email-masked]'" <[email-masked]>
Cc: "[email-masked]'" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]'" <[email-masked]>, "[email-masked]'" <[email-masked]>, "Wang, Ya W. EOP" <[email-masked]>, "Zients, Jeffrey D. EOP" <[email-masked]>, "Atkinson, Caroline M. EOP" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 Jul 2015 15:18:21 +0000

+ Jeff 
+ Caroline

Thanks, Ami. I'll ask either Jeff or Caroline to call you. 

Thanks again,
DM

----- Original Message -----
From: Amitabh Desai [mailto:[email-masked]]
Sent: Sunday, July 12, 2015 10:44 AM
To: DMCOS
Cc: Jon Davidson <[email-masked]>; [email-masked] <[email-masked]>; Tina Flournoy <[email-masked]>; Wang, Ya W. EOP
Subject: Re: WJC / Greece / Merkel

Denis, I can share a quick update with you or whoever you recommend at your convenience. 
WJC and Tsipras couldn't connect this morning because Tsipras already had entered some discussions but we got some feedback from him. 
+1-917-488-1397 

> On Jul 11, 2015, at 10:23 PM, DMCOS <[email-masked]> wrote:
> 
> Ami, 
> 
> A short update on where we assess the Greece situation to stand. 
> 
> Denis. 
> 
> ------
> 
> Eurozone Finance Ministers concluded a 9 hour meeting at around midnight European time, and will reconvene at 11 am tomorrow morning. The 18 Eurozone leaders will meet on Sunday at 4pm, followed by a meeting of the 28 EU leaders at 6pm.  Some members of the Eurogroup were pushing for a conclusion that would have given a mandate to begin formal negotiations; but other member states, particularly the Germans and the Finns, refused to sign on.  Many countries remain concerned about the €80 billion financing gap identified by the IMF as Greece’s needs over the next 3 years.   
> 
> A document has surfaced in the press allegedly summarizing a hard line German position that Greece must either commit to additional reforms and put aside assets in escrow for later privatization or else leave the Eurozone for five years. While officials have not acknowledged the veracity of the document, its contents match positions that the German finance ministry has taken in the past, and hence it underscores Chancellor Merkel’s challenge in managing her own domestic politics surrounding Greece.  Importantly, however, we are hearing that most of Greece’s European creditors have now accepted that debt relief will be necessary in any new program, though reportedly a number of countries are concerned about the magnitude of this relief.  The most likely option is extending the maturity of Greece’s debt and further reducing interest rates, as Germany has indicated that providing outright nominal hair-cuts is a redline. For the Greeks, this will make passing and implementing reform more palatable, but for Greece’s European creditors it will further complicate the politics of providing Greece with a third program.
> 
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: DMCOS
> Sent: Saturday, July 11, 2015 06:11 PM
> To: [email-masked]' <[email-masked]>
> Cc: [email-masked]' <[email-masked]>; [email-masked]' <[email-masked]>; [email-masked]' <[email-masked]>; Wang, Ya W. EOP
> Subject: Re: WJC / Greece / Merkel
> 
> Ami, 
> 
> I'll send an update on the situation tonight. Meanwhile, our team suggests very slight tweaks to the points, as follows:
> 
> 
> 1) The PM should stay calm and engaged even if his interlocutors at times seem to make unreasonable demands.
> 
> 2) An underscoring of the importance of staying in Euro for both geopolitical and economic reasons.
> 
> 3) A recognition that debt re-profiling is an important win for Greece and for growth, beyond what the PM's predecessors were able to achieve.
> 
> 4) Advice that to build trust and show Greece's ability and willingness to implement reforms, important to move as quickly as possible to pass key reforms through the parliament in the coming days.
> 
> 5) And a reminder that it is important to be mindful that Merkel and other European leaders also have political constraints in their democracies and need strong evidence that the Greece is committed to reform and willing to be flexible.
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Amitabh Desai [mailto:[email-masked]]
> Sent: Saturday, July 11, 2015 02:07 PM
> To: DMCOS
> Cc: Jon Davidson <[email-masked]>; [email-masked] <[email-masked]>; Tina Flournoy <[email-masked]>; Wang, Ya W. EOP
> Subject: Re: WJC / Greece / Merkel
> 
> WJC's meetings ran longer than expected and we missed Tsipras' window today. We'll try tomorrow from New York. Same talking points? 
> 
>> On Jul 11, 2015, at 5:25 PM, DMCOS <[email-masked]> wrote:
>> 
>> Thanks very much, Ami. 
>> 
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: Amitabh Desai [mailto:[email-masked]]
>> Sent: Saturday, July 11, 2015 11:23 AM
>> To: DMCOS
>> Cc: Jon Davidson <[email-masked]>; John Podesta <[email-masked]>; Tina Flournoy <[email-masked]>; Wang, Ya W. EOP
>> Subject: Re: WJC / Greece / Merkel
>> 
>> A quick update:
>> - Ironically, Merkel said she's too busy with Greece today to do a call about Bosnia. So we haven't connected. Please let us know if we should make the call overtly about Greece, or just let it be. 
>> - PM Tsipras is available this afternoon and we're aiming to connect with him soon. 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>>> On Jul 10, 2015, at 11:18 PM, DMCOS <[email-masked]> wrote:
>>> 
>>> Thanks, Jon and Ami. 
>>> 
>>> We would welcome a nudge to the Chancellor in the way you suggest.  Please. 
>>> 
>>> Thanks - and have a good trip this weekend.  We are grateful to be so well represented - 
>>> DM 
>>> 
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Jon Davidson [mailto:[email-masked]] 
>>> Sent: Friday, July 10, 2015 4:42 PM
>>> To: Amitabh Desai; DMCOS
>>> Cc: John Podesta; Tina Flournoy; Wang, Ya W. EOP
>>> Subject: Re: WJC / Greece / Merkel
>>> 
>>> + Denis/Jenny
>>> 
>>> 
>>> Denis,
>>> 
>>> John suggested emailing you - on the heels of your talk with WJC about PM Tsipras - to also let you know that we've been in close touch with Merkel's folks this week in advance of WJC's Bosnia visit and given Merkel's visit to Bosnia earlier this week - so it would be an innocuous and easy lift - if a nudge to Merkel is needed - to have WJC call Merkel on basis of checking in for guidance on Bosnia and then casually asking her about Greece on the back end. Just in case helpful. Although it's getting late now in Berlin. Sincerely, Ami
>>> 
>>> Mr. Amitabh Desai
>>> Foreign Policy Adviser to President Clinton
>>> Office: +1.212.348.0452
>>> Cell: +1.917.488.1397
>>> Email: [email-masked]
>>> 
>>> This e-mail, and any attachments thereto, is intended only for use by the addressee(s) named herein and may contain legally privileged and/or confidential information. Any unauthorized use or dissemination of this message in whole or in part is strictly prohibited. If you have received it by mistake please notify the sender by return e-mail and delete this message from your system.
>>> 
>>>